TY  - JOUR
T1  - Ecological worldview, agricultural or natural resource-based activities, and geography affect perceived importance of ecosystem services
JF  - Landscape and Urban Planning
Y1  - 2020
A1  - Wardropper, C.B.
A1  - Mase, A.S.
A1  - Qiu, J.
A1  - Kohl, P.
A1  - Booth, E.G.
A1  - Rissman, A.R.
KW  - agriculture
KW  - ecosystem services
KW  - New Ecological Paradigm
KW  - Urban
KW  - Water
AB  - Understanding public perceptions of the importance of ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for the development and communication of sustainable management and policies. Yet public perspectives on ES and their sociocultural and geographic patterns are not well understood. This study asks: Which ES are perceived as more or less important by the general public?; Which ES are considered most similar when the public are asked to evaluate the importance of specific water, agricultural and natural resources ES?; And, what individual and geographic factors are associated with perceived importance of different ES? We conducted a survey of residents in an urban and agricultural watershed in the U.S. Upper Midwest (n = 1136). This study asked respondents about a wider range of ES than is typical, and examines how ecological worldviews influence the perceived importance of ES. Respondents rated regional provision of drinking and surface water quality, clean lakes and rivers for wildlife, and a reliable supply of drinking and surface water most important. Those with a stronger ecological worldview tended to rate natural areas and processes as more important and agricultural products as less important than respondents with a more anthropocentric worldview. Perceived importance of various ES was also predicted by other individual-level factors relating to livelihood, outdoor recreation, and proximity to lakes, forests and agriculture. For example, respondents with livelihoods dependent on agriculture rated agricultural products and rural character highly. These findings bolster the case for more context-specific assessments of public importance ratings for environmental benefits to inform planning and management.
VL  - 197
SN  - 0169-2046
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204619305869
JO  - Landscape and Urban Planning
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios
JF  - Science of the Total Environment
Y1  - 2019
A1  - Motew, Melissa
A1  - Chen, Xi
A1  - Carpenter, Stephen R.
A1  - Booth, Eric G.
A1  - Seifert, Jenny
A1  - Qiu, Jiangxiao
A1  - Loheide, Steven P.
A1  - Turner, Monica G.
A1  - Zipper, Samuel C.
A1  - Kucharik, Christopher J.
KW  - climate
KW  - land use
KW  - Manure
KW  - phosphorus
KW  - Surface water quality
KW  - Watershed
AB  - Eutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014–2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.
VL  - 693
SN  - 0048-9697
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719334047
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Management of minimum lake levels and impacts on flood mitigation: A case study of the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA
JF  - Journal of Hydrology
Y1  - 2019
A1  - Chen, Xi
A1  - Motew, Melissa M.
A1  - Booth, Eric G.
A1  - Zipper, Samuel C.
A1  - Loheide, Steven P.
A1  - Kucharik, Christopher J.
KW  - ecosystem services
KW  - Flood exposure assessment
KW  - Hydrologic model
KW  - Lake level management
AB  - Lake level regulation is commonly used to manage water resources and mitigate flood risk in watersheds with linked river–lake systems. In this study, we first assess exposure, in terms of both population and land area, to flooding impacts in the Yahara Watershed’s chain of four lakes in southern Wisconsin as affected by minimum lake level management. A flooding exposure assessment shows that the areas surrounding the upstream lakes, Mendota and Monona, have dense urban areas with high populations that are exposed to flooding; Waubesa has low elevations along its lakeshore, resulting in a large potential flooding area; and the most downstream lake, Kegonsa, has a large area of surrounding cropland that is exposed to flooding but impacts a limited population. We then use a linked modeling framework of a land surface model (Agro-IBIS) and a hydrologic-routing model (THMB) to simulate daily lake level over a study period of 1994–2013 in the Yahara Watershed with different minimum lake level management strategies. Modeling results show that the peak lake levels and corresponding exposed land area and population to flooding will decrease under a lower target minimum lake level. However, at the same time, the number of days that the lake level is below winter minimum will increase, which may adversely affect ecosystem health. In addition, our sensitivity analysis indicates that reducing target minimum lake levels will help mitigate flood risk in terms of both flood magnitude and frequency. Nevertheless, this must be balanced against the need to maintain adequately high lake levels for ecosystem services and recreational functions of the lakes.
VL  - 577
SN  - 0022-1694
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419306407
JO  - Journal of Hydrology
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Nonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of ecosystem services
JF  - Nature Sustainability
Y1  - 2019
A1  - Qiu, Jiangxiao
A1  - Zipper, Samuel C.
A1  - Motew, Melissa
A1  - Booth, Eric G.
A1  - Kucharik, Christopher J.
A1  - Loheide, Steven P.
AB  - Groundwater is a fundamental control on biophysical processes underpinning essential ecosystem services (ES). However, interactions and feedbacks among groundwater, climate and multiple ES remain less well understood. We investigated groundwater effects on a portfolio of food, water and biogeochemical ES indicators in an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Our results show that food production, water quality and quantity, and flood control are most sensitive to groundwater, with the strongest responses under wet and dry climate extremes. Climate mediates groundwater effects, such that several ES have synergies during dry climate, but trade-offs (groundwater increased some ES but declined others) under wet climate. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in groundwater effects on ES, which is driven primarily by water table depth (WTD) and is also sensitive to soil texture and land cover. Most ES indicators respond nonlinearly to WTD when groundwater is within a critical depth (approximately 2.5 m) of land surface, indicating that small WTD changes can have disproportionately large effects on ES in shallow groundwater areas. Within this critical WTD, increasingly shallow groundwater leads to nonlinear increases in surface flood risk, sediment erosion and phosphorus yield; nonlinear decreases in drainage to the deep vadose zone and thus groundwater recharge; and bidirectional responses of crop and grass production, carbon storage and nitrate leaching. Our study illustrates the complex role of groundwater in affecting multiple ES and highlights that strategically managing groundwater may enhance ES resilience to climate extremes in shallow groundwater settings.
SN  - 2398-9629
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0278-2
JO  - Nature Sustainability
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Continuous separation of land use and climate effects on the past and future water balance
JF  - Journal of Hydrology
Y1  - 2018
A1  - Zipper, Samuel C.
A1  - Motew, Melissa
A1  - Booth, Eric G.
A1  - Chen, Xi
A1  - Qiu, Jiangxiao
A1  - Kucharik, Christopher J.
A1  - Carpenter, Stephen R.
A1  - Loheide II, Steven P.
KW  - Baseflow
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Evapotranspiration
KW  - Land use change
KW  - Streamflow
KW  - Urbanization
AB  - Understanding the combined and separate effects of climate and land use change on the water cycle is necessary to mitigate negative impacts. However, existing methodologies typically divide data into discrete (before and after) periods, implicitly representing climate and land use as step changes when in reality these changes are often gradual. Here, we introduce a new regression-based methodological framework designed to separate climate and land use effects on any hydrological flux of interest continuously through time, and estimate uncertainty in the contribution of these two drivers. We present two applications in the Yahara River Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) demonstrating how our approach can be used to understand synergistic or antagonistic relationships between land use and climate in either the past or the future: (1) historical streamflow, baseflow, and quickflow in an urbanizing subwatershed; and (2) simulated future evapotranspiration, drainage, and direct runoff from a suite of contrasting climate and land use scenarios for the entire watershed. In the historical analysis, we show that ∼60% of recent streamflow changes can be attributed to climate, with approximately equal contributions from quickflow and baseflow. However, our continuous method reveals that baseflow is significantly increasing through time, primarily due to land use change and potentially influenced by long-term increases in groundwater storage. In the simulation of future changes, we show that all components of the future water balance will respond more strongly to changes in climate than land use, with the largest potential land use effects on drainage. These results indicate that diverse land use change trajectories may counteract each other while the effects of climate are more homogeneous at watershed scales. Therefore, management opportunities to counteract climate change effects will likely be more effective at smaller spatial scales, where land use trajectories are unidirectional.
VL  - 565
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169418306188
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - The synergistic effect of manure supply and extreme precipitation on surface water quality
JF  - Environmental Research Letters
Y1  - 2018
A1  - Melissa Motew
A1  - Eric G. Booth
A1  - Stephen R. Carpenter
A1  - Xi Chen
A1  - Christopher J. Kucharik
AB  - Over-enrichment of phosphorus (P) in agroecosystems contributes to eutrophication of surface waters. In the Midwest U.S. and elsewhere, climate change is increasing the frequency of high-intensity precipitation events, which can serve as a primary conduit of P transport. Despite uncertainty in their estimates, process-based watershed models are important tools that help characterize watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry and scale up important mechanisms affecting water quality. Using one such model developed for an agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, we conducted a 2x2 factorial experiment to test the effects of (high/low) terrestrial P supply (PSUP) and (high/low) precipitation intensity (PREC) on surface water quality. Sixty-year simulations were conducted for each of the four runs, with annual results obtained for watershed average P yield and concentration at the field scale (220m x 220m grid cells), P load and concentration at the stream scale, and summertime total P concentration (TP) in Lake Mendota. ANOVA results were generated for the 2x2 factorial design, with PSUP and PREC treated as categorical variables. The results showed a significant, positive interaction (p<0.01) between the two drivers for dissolved P concentration at the field and stream scales, and total P concentration at the field, stream, and lake scales. The synergy in dissolved P was linked to nonlinear dependencies between P stored in manure and the daily runoff to rainfall ratio. The synergistic response of dissolved P loss may have important ecological consequences because dissolved P is highly bioavailable. Overall, the results suggest that high levels of terrestrial P supplied as manure can exacerbate water quality problems in the future as the frequency of high-intensity rainfall events increases with a changing climate. Conversely, lowering terrestrial manure P supply may help improve the resilience of surface water quality to extreme events.
SN  - 1748-9326
UR  - http://iopscience.iop.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaade6
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed
JF  - Ecosystems
Y1  - 2017
A1  - Motew, Melissa
A1  - Chen, Xi
A1  - Booth, Eric G.
A1  - Carpenter, Stephen R.
A1  - Pinkas, Pavel
A1  - Zipper, Samuel C.
A1  - Loheide, Steven P.
A1  - Donner, Simon D.
A1  - Tsuruta, Kai
A1  - Vadas, Peter A.
A1  - Kucharik, Christopher J.
AB  - Decades of fertilizer and manure applications have led to a buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and sediments, commonly referred to as legacy P. Legacy P can provide a long-term source of P to surface waters where it causes eutrophication. Using a suite of numerical models, we investigated the influence of legacy P on water quality in the Yahara Watershed of southern Wisconsin, USA. The suite included Agro-IBIS, a terrestrial ecosystem model; THMB, a hydrologic and nutrient routing model; and the Yahara Water Quality Model which estimates water quality indicators in the Yahara chain of lakes. Using five alternative scenarios of antecedent P storage (legacy P) in soils and channels under historical climate conditions, we simulated outcomes of P yield from the landscape, lake P loading, and three lake water quality indicators. Legacy P had a significant effect on lake loads and water quality. Across the five scenarios for Lake Mendota, the largest and most upstream lake, average P yield (kg ha−1) varied by −41 to +22%, P load (kg y−1) by −35 to +14%, summer total P (TP) concentration (mg l−1) by −25 to +12%, Secchi depth (m) by −7 to +3%, and the probability of hypereutrophy by −67 to +34%, relative to baseline conditions. The minimum storage scenario showed that a 35% reduction in present-day loads to Lake Mendota corresponded with a 25% reduction in summer TP and smaller reductions in the downstream lakes. Water quality was more vulnerable to heavy rainfall events at higher amounts of P storage and less so at lower amounts. Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with climate change; therefore, water quality could be protected by decreasing P reserves.
SN  - 1435-0629
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0125-0
JO  - Ecosystems
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Public access to spatial data on private-land conservation
JF  - Ecology and Society
Y1  - 2017
A1  - Rissman, Adena R.
A1  - Owley, Jessica
A1  - L'Roe, Andrew W.
A1  - Morris, Amy Wilson
A1  - Wardropper, Chloe B.
KW  - conservation easements
KW  - cost share
KW  - Environmental governance
KW  - Geographic Information Systems
KW  - land trusts
KW  - privacy
KW  - private-land conservation
KW  - tax incentive
KW  - transparency
AB  - Information is critical for environmental governance. The rise of digital mapping has the potential to advance private-land conservation by assisting with conservation planning, monitoring, evaluation, and accountability. However, privacy concerns from private landowners and the capacity of conservation entities can influence efforts to track spatial data. We examine public access to geospatial data on conserved private lands and the reasons data are available or unavailable. We conduct a qualitative comparative case study based on analysis of maps, documents, and interviews. We compare four conservation programs involving different conservation tools: conservation easements (the growing but incomplete National Conservation Easement Database), regulatory mitigation (gaps in tracking U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s endangered species habitat mitigation), contract payments (lack of spatial data on U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program due to Farm Bill restrictions), and property-tax incentives (online mapping of Wisconsin’s managed forest tax program). These cases illuminate the capacity and privacy reasons for current incomplete or inaccessible spatial data and the politics of mapping private land. If geospatial data are to contribute fully to planning, evaluation, and accountability, we recommend improving information system capacity, enhancing learning networks, and reducing legal and administrative barriers to information access, while balancing the right to information and the right to privacy.
VL  - 22
UR  - https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss2/art24/
IS  - 2
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Alternative scenarios of bioenergy crop production in an agricultural landscape and implications for bird communities
JF  - Ecological Applications
Y1  - 2016
A1  - Blank, Peter J.
A1  - Williams, Carol L.
A1  - Sample, David W.
A1  - Meehan, Timothy D.
A1  - Turner, Monica G.
KW  - bioenergy crops
KW  - grass biomass
KW  - grassland birds
KW  - land-use change
KW  - landscape scenarios
KW  - row-crop agriculture
KW  - species of greatest conservation need
AB  - Increased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10%, 20%, or 30% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha ≥ 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will likely benefit grassland bird populations, and bioenergy landscapes could be designed to maximize biodiversity benefits while meeting targets for biomass production.
VL  - 26
SN  - 1939-5582
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1490
IS  - 1
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - From qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale
JF  - Environmental Modelling & Software
Y1  - 2016
A1  - Booth, Eric G.
A1  - Qiu, Jiangxiao
A1  - Carpenter, Stephen R.
A1  - Schatz, Jason
A1  - Chen, Xi
A1  - Kucharik, Christopher J.
A1  - Loheide II, Steven P.
A1  - Motew, Melissa M.
A1  - Seifert, Jenny M.
A1  - Turner, Monica G.
KW  - Biophysical modeling
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Land use change
KW  - scenarios
KW  - Social-ecological systems
KW  - Watershed
AB  - Scenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.
VL  - 85
SN  - 1364-8152
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216304935
JO  - Environmental Modelling & Software
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development
JF  - Ecology and Society
Y1  - 2016
A1  - Wardropper, Chloe B.
A1  - Gillon, Sean
A1  - Mase, Amber S.
A1  - McKinney, Emily A.
A1  - Carpenter, Stephen R.
A1  - Rissman, Adena R.
KW  - scenario archetypes
KW  - scenario development
KW  - social and environmental change
KW  - stakeholder perspectives
KW  - watershed futures
AB  - Contrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios’ narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for  creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.
VL  - 21
UR  - http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss2/art12/
IS  - 2
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
JF  - Science
Y1  - 2015
A1  - Steffen, Will
A1  - Richardson, Katherine
A1  - Rockström, Johan
A1  - Cornell, Sarah E.
A1  - Fetzer, Ingo
A1  - Bennett, Elena M.
A1  - Biggs, Reinette
A1  - Carpenter, Stephen R.
A1  - de Vries, Wim
A1  - de Wit, Cynthia A.
A1  - Folke, Carl
A1  - Gerten, Dieter
A1  - Heinke, Jens
A1  - Mace, Georgina M.
A1  - Persson, Linn M.
A1  - Ramanathan, Veerabhadran
A1  - Reyers, Belinda
A1  - Sörlin, Sverker
AB  - The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.
VL  - 347
UR  - http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.abstract
IS  - 6223
JO  - Science
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA
JF  - Ecology and Society
Y1  - 2015
A1  - Carpenter, Stephen R.
A1  - Booth, Eric G.
A1  - Gillon, Sean
A1  - Kucharik, Christopher J.
A1  - Loheide, Steven
A1  - Mase, Amber S.
A1  - Motew, Melissa
A1  - Qiu, Jiangxiao
A1  - Rissman, Adena R.
A1  - Seifert, Jenny
A1  - Soylu, Evren
A1  - Turner, Monica
A1  - Wardropper, Chloe B.
KW  - alternative futures
KW  - climate
KW  - ecosystem services
KW  - eutrophication
KW  - governance
KW  - lakes
KW  - land-use change
KW  - phosphorus
KW  - scenarios
AB  - Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km², population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed’s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010–2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.
VL  - 20
UR  - http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art10/
IS  - 2
JO  - Ecology and Society
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Embodied phosphorus and the global connections of United States agriculture
JF  - Environmental Research Letters
Y1  - 2012
A1  - Graham K MacDonald
A1  - Elena M Bennett
A1  - Stephen R Carpenter
AB  - Agricultural phosphorus (P) use is intricately linked to food security and water quality.Globalization of agricultural systems and changing diets clearly alter these relationships, yettheir specific influence on non-renewable P reserves is less certain. We assessed P fertilizer usedfor production of food crops, livestock and biofuels in the US agricultural system, explicitlycomparing the domestic P use required for US food consumption to the P use embodied in theproduction of US food imports and exports. By far the largest demand for P fertilizer throughout theUS agricultural system was for feed and livestock production (56% of total P fertilizer use,including that for traded commodities). As little as 8% of the total mineral P inputs to US domesticagriculture in 2007 (1905 Gg P) was consumed in US diets in the same year, while larger fractionsmay have been retained in agricultural soils (28%), associated with different post-harvest losses(40%) or with biofuel refining (10%). One quarter of all P fertilizer used in the US was linked toexport production, primarily crops, driving a large net P flux out of the country (338 Gg P).However, US meat consumption relied considerably on P fertilizer use in other countries to producered meat imports. Changes in domestic farm management and consumer waste could together reduce the Pfertilizer required for US food consumption by half, which is comparable to the P fertilizerreduction attainable by cutting domestic meat consumption (44%). US export-oriented agriculture,domestic post-harvest P losses and global demand for meat may ultimately have an important influenceon the lifespan of US phosphate rock reserves.
VL  - 7
SN  - 1748-9326
UR  - http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=4/a=044024
IS  - 4
ER  - 

TY  - JOUR
T1  - General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events
JF  - Sustainability
Y1  - 2012
A1  - Carpenter, S. R.
A1  - Arrow, K. J.
A1  - Barrett, S.
A1  - Biggs, R.
A1  - Brock, W. A.
A1  - Crepin, A. S.
A1  - Engstrom, G.
A1  - Folke, C.
A1  - Hughes, T. P.
A1  - Kautsky, N.
A1  - Li, C. Z.
A1  - McCarney, G.
A1  - Meng, K.
A1  - Maler, K. G.
A1  - Polasky, S.
A1  - Scheffer, M.
A1  - Shogren, J.
A1  - Sterner, T.
A1  - Vincent, J. R.
A1  - Walker, B.
A1  - Xepapadeas, A.
A1  - de Zeeuw, A.
AB  - Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.
VL  - 4
SN  - 2071-1050
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su4123248
IS  - 12
ER  -