02186nas a2200157   4500008004100000020001400041245011400055210006900169300001400238490000700252520166100259100002101920700001901941700002001960856004801980       2017                        eng d  a1435-062900aFlashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During a Century of Urbanization and Climate Change0 aFlashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During  a601 - 6150 v203 aGlobally, ecosystem services are threatened by increasing urbanization and more variable precipitation patterns driven by climate change. However, how these drivers interact over long-time scales to affect underlying processes remains poorly understood, hindering our ability to predict their long-term consequences. Here, we use long-term data spanning nearly a century to investigate changes in hydrologic attributes for two lakes in the Upper Midwest with urbanizing watersheds. We quantified flashiness—the variability of runoff rate, volume, or stage-level of waterways—to investigate the concurrent impacts of urbanization and climate change on flashiness and flooding potential. Our results indicate that flashiness generally increased for both lakes over the period of 1916–2013, although this overall trend consists of sub-periods of increase and decrease. Increasing impervious surface area has been the stronger driver of flashiness historically; however, our results suggest that the impact of urbanization may reach a threshold, such that saturation effects would cause large magnitude precipitation events to become a relatively stronger driver of flashiness. Increasing flashiness indicates an increase in flooding potential, documented by increases in the 10- and 100-year flood threshold levels as large as 30 cm. Since flashiness is strongly related to the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, the methodology and results presented here provide a unique approach to gain insight into how non-linear interactions between global change drivers, at multiple time scales, impact the simultaneous provision of multiple services.1 aUsinowicz, Jacob1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKamarainen, Amy  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0042-702147nas a2200313   4500008004100000020001400041245014100055210006900196300001200265490000700277520113300284653002501417653001901442653002001461653001401481653003001495653001401525100002001539700001901559700002701578700001801605700001301623700003001636700002701666700002301693700002301716700002301739856007101762       2016                        eng d  a1364-815200aFrom qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale0 aFrom qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios Transla  a80 - 970 v853 aScenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.10aBiophysical modeling10aClimate change10aLand use change10ascenarios10aSocial-ecological systems10aWatershed1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aSchatz, Jason1 aChen, Xi1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide1 aMotew, Melissa, M.1 aSeifert, Jenny, M.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521630493502238nas a2200205   4500008004100000020001400041245012700055210006900182300001200251490000800263520151400271653002901785653002601814653002801840653002601868100002601894700001801920700002301938856007101961       2015                        eng d  a0169-204600aFragmented water quality governance: Constraints to spatial targeting for nutrient reduction in a Midwestern USA watershed0 aFragmented water quality governance Constraints to spatial targe  a64 - 750 v1373 aSpatially targeted interventions improve the effectiveness of environmental policy, but are challenged by implementation constraints and coordination among governments. Spatial targeting research rarely acknowledges the diversity of actors navigating complicated institutional dynamics to deploy environmental policy instruments. We mapped 35 nutrient reduction interventions by federal, state, county, and municipal governments and interviewed 15 policymakers and agency staff in Wisconsin's Yahara Watershed, USA to understand how multilevel governance impacts spatial targeting and implementation of water quality policy. Our Geographic Information System database showed that county governments implemented the most policies, while the state promulgated the most rules, with uneven application of policy interventions across the landscape. Spatial targeting differed between agricultural and non-agricultural policies and by type of tool (land acquisition, direct management, incentive, and regulation). We found a negative correlation between areas of policy intervention and phosphorus yield across government levels (p < 0.001), with the strongest negative correlations by implementing agency. Interviews revealed that for government agencies, spatial targeting is constrained by program and funding requirements and data limitations for soil and land use practices. In order to target the highest phosphorus yielding subwatersheds, governments will need to alter the spatial location of their efforts.10aMidwestern USA watershed10aMultilevel governance10aSpatial policy analysis10aSurface water quality1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aChang, Chaoyi1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204614003090