02722nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245016200055210006900217260001500286300001400301490000800315520181200323653002702135653003002162653002502192653003802217653002002255653001702275100002302292700002502315700003002340700002702370856007102397       2017                        eng d  a0304-380000aQuantifying indirect groundwater-mediated effects of urbanization on agroecosystem productivity using MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a complete critical zone model0 aQuantifying indirect groundwatermediated effects of urbanization  c2017/9/10/  a201 - 2190 v3593 aSustainably accommodating future population growth and meeting global food requirements requires understanding feedbacks between ecosystems and belowground hydrological processes. Here, we introduce MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a new dynamic ecosystem model including groundwater flow, and use MAGI to explore the indirect impacts of land use change (urbanization) on landscape-scale agroecosystem productivity (corn yield). We quantify the degree to which urbanization can indirectly impact yield in surrounding areas by changing the amount of groundwater recharge locally and the water table dynamics at landscape scales. We find that urbanization can cause increases or decreases in yield elsewhere, with changes up to approximately +/− 40% under the conditions simulated due entirely to altered groundwater-land surface interactions. Our results indicate that land use change in upland areas has the largest impact on water table depth over the landscape. However, there is a spatial mismatch between areas with the largest water table response to urbanization elsewhere (upland areas) and locations with the strongest yield response to urbanization elsewhere (midslope areas). This mismatch arises from differences in baseline water table depth prior to urbanization. Yield response to urbanization in lowland areas is relatively localized despite large changes to the vertical water balance due to stabilizing ecohydrological feedbacks between root water uptake and lateral groundwater flow. These results demonstrate that hydrological impacts of land use change can propagate through subsurface flow to indirectly impact surrounding ecosystems, and these subsurface connections should be considered when planning land use at a landscape scale to avoid negative outcomes associated with land use change.10aagroecosystem modeling10aDynamic vegetation models10aGroundwater recharge10aGroundwater-land surface coupling10aLand use change10aUrbanization1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aSoylu, Mehmet, Evren1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380017300789