02804nas a2200325   4500008004100000020001400041245010800055210006900163260001600232300001100248490000800259520183200267653001202099653001302111653001102124653001502135653002602150653001402176100001902190700001302209700002702222700002002249700001902269700001902288700002402307700002302331700002302354700003002377856007102407       2019                        eng d  a0048-969700aComparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios0 aComparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water q  c2019/11/25/  a1334840 v6933 aEutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014–2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.10aclimate10aland use10aManure10aphosphorus10aSurface water quality10aWatershed1 aMotew, Melissa1 aChen, Xi1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aSeifert, Jenny1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aTurner, Monica, G.1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971933404702493nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245012400055210006900179260001600248490000800264520167500272653002301947653003001970653002102000653002602021100001302047700002302060700002002083700002302103700002402126700003002150856007102180       2019                        eng d  a0022-169400aManagement of minimum lake levels and impacts on flood mitigation: A case study of the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA0 aManagement of minimum lake levels and impacts on flood mitigatio  c2019/10/01/0 v5773 aLake level regulation is commonly used to manage water resources and mitigate flood risk in watersheds with linked river–lake systems. In this study, we first assess exposure, in terms of both population and land area, to flooding impacts in the Yahara Watershed’s chain of four lakes in southern Wisconsin as affected by minimum lake level management. A flooding exposure assessment shows that the areas surrounding the upstream lakes, Mendota and Monona, have dense urban areas with high populations that are exposed to flooding; Waubesa has low elevations along its lakeshore, resulting in a large potential flooding area; and the most downstream lake, Kegonsa, has a large area of surrounding cropland that is exposed to flooding but impacts a limited population. We then use a linked modeling framework of a land surface model (Agro-IBIS) and a hydrologic-routing model (THMB) to simulate daily lake level over a study period of 1994–2013 in the Yahara Watershed with different minimum lake level management strategies. Modeling results show that the peak lake levels and corresponding exposed land area and population to flooding will decrease under a lower target minimum lake level. However, at the same time, the number of days that the lake level is below winter minimum will increase, which may adversely affect ecosystem health. In addition, our sensitivity analysis indicates that reducing target minimum lake levels will help mitigate flood risk in terms of both flood magnitude and frequency. Nevertheless, this must be balanced against the need to maintain adequately high lake levels for ecosystem services and recreational functions of the lakes.10aecosystem services10aFlood exposure assessment10aHydrologic model10aLake level management1 aChen, Xi1 aMotew, Melissa, M.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941930640702281nas a2200181   4500008004100000020001400041245008400055210006900139260001500208520169500223100001901918700002301937700001901960700002001979700003001999700002402029856004602053       2019                        eng d  a2398-962900aNonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of ecosystem services0 aNonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of eco  c2019/04/293 aGroundwater is a fundamental control on biophysical processes underpinning essential ecosystem services (ES). However, interactions and feedbacks among groundwater, climate and multiple ES remain less well understood. We investigated groundwater effects on a portfolio of food, water and biogeochemical ES indicators in an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Our results show that food production, water quality and quantity, and flood control are most sensitive to groundwater, with the strongest responses under wet and dry climate extremes. Climate mediates groundwater effects, such that several ES have synergies during dry climate, but trade-offs (groundwater increased some ES but declined others) under wet climate. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in groundwater effects on ES, which is driven primarily by water table depth (WTD) and is also sensitive to soil texture and land cover. Most ES indicators respond nonlinearly to WTD when groundwater is within a critical depth (approximately 2.5 m) of land surface, indicating that small WTD changes can have disproportionately large effects on ES in shallow groundwater areas. Within this critical WTD, increasingly shallow groundwater leads to nonlinear increases in surface flood risk, sediment erosion and phosphorus yield; nonlinear decreases in drainage to the deep vadose zone and thus groundwater recharge; and bidirectional responses of crop and grass production, carbon storage and nitrate leaching. Our study illustrates the complex role of groundwater in affecting multiple ES and highlights that strategically managing groundwater may enhance ES resilience to climate extremes in shallow groundwater settings.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.  uhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0278-203248nas a2200217   4500008004100000245012300041210006900164260001500233300001400248520249800262653002002760653002302780653002202803653001702825653002202842100002102864700002302885700003002908700002302938856006902961       2019                        eng d00aScale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer0 aScaledependent interactions between tree canopy cover and imperv  c2019/03/20  a2018175613 aCities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer air temperatures, with serious consequences for people. Increased tree cover is suggested as a climate adaptation strategy, but the amount of tree canopy cover needed to counteract higher temperatures associated with impervious surface cover is not known. We used a bicycle-mounted measurement system to quantify the interaction of canopy cover and impervious surface cover on urban air temperature. Daytime air temperature was substantially reduced with greater canopy cover (≥40%) at the scale of a typical city block (60–90 m), especially on the hottest days. However, reducing impervious surfaces remained important for lowering nighttime temperatures. Results can guide strategies for increasing tree cover to mitigate daytime urban heat and improve residents’ well-being.As cities warm and the need for climate adaptation strategies increases, a more detailed understanding of the cooling effects of land cover across a continuum of spatial scales will be necessary to guide management decisions. We asked how tree canopy cover and impervious surface cover interact to influence daytime and nighttime summer air temperature, and how effects vary with the spatial scale at which land-cover data are analyzed (10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-m radii). A bicycle-mounted measurement system was used to sample air temperature every 5 m along 10 transects (∼7 km length, sampled 3–12 times each) spanning a range of impervious and tree canopy cover (0–100%, each) in a midsized city in the Upper Midwest United States. Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 °C (range, 1.1–5.7 °C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60–90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 °C (range, 1.2–3.0 °C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.10aair temperature10aecosystem services10alandscape context10aurban forest10aurban heat island1 aZiter, Carly, D.1 aPedersen, Eric, J.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/19/1817561116.abstract02894nas a2200289   4500008004100000245009500041210006900136260001600205300001200221490000800233520200700241653001302248653001902261653002302280653002002303653001502323653001702338100002302355700001902378700002002397700001302417700001902430700003002449700002702479700002702506856007102533       2018                        eng d00aContinuous separation of land use and climate effects on the past and future water balance0 aContinuous separation of land use and climate effects on the pas  c2018/10/01/  a106-1220 v5653 aUnderstanding the combined and separate effects of climate and land use change on the water cycle is necessary to mitigate negative impacts. However, existing methodologies typically divide data into discrete (before and after) periods, implicitly representing climate and land use as step changes when in reality these changes are often gradual. Here, we introduce a new regression-based methodological framework designed to separate climate and land use effects on any hydrological flux of interest continuously through time, and estimate uncertainty in the contribution of these two drivers. We present two applications in the Yahara River Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) demonstrating how our approach can be used to understand synergistic or antagonistic relationships between land use and climate in either the past or the future: (1) historical streamflow, baseflow, and quickflow in an urbanizing subwatershed; and (2) simulated future evapotranspiration, drainage, and direct runoff from a suite of contrasting climate and land use scenarios for the entire watershed. In the historical analysis, we show that ∼60% of recent streamflow changes can be attributed to climate, with approximately equal contributions from quickflow and baseflow. However, our continuous method reveals that baseflow is significantly increasing through time, primarily due to land use change and potentially influenced by long-term increases in groundwater storage. In the simulation of future changes, we show that all components of the future water balance will respond more strongly to changes in climate than land use, with the largest potential land use effects on drainage. These results indicate that diverse land use change trajectories may counteract each other while the effects of climate are more homogeneous at watershed scales. Therefore, management opportunities to counteract climate change effects will likely be more effective at smaller spatial scales, where land use trajectories are unidirectional.10aBaseflow10aClimate change10aEvapotranspiration10aLand use change10aStreamflow10aUrbanization1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aChen, Xi1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941830618802927nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245010000055210007100155260001500226520215400241653001102395653002302406653002302429653002202452653001502474653002202489653003702511653000902548653002102557653001802578100001702596700002302613856003702636       2018                        eng d  a1051-076100aCurrent and historical land use influence soil‐based ecosystem services in an urban landscape0 aCurrent and historical land use influence soil‐based ecosystem s  c2018/03/063 aAbstract Urban landscapes are increasingly recognized as providing important ecosystem services (ES) to their occupants. Yet, urban ES assessments often ignore the complex spatial heterogeneity and land?use history of cities. Soil?based services may be particularly susceptible to land?use legacy effects. We studied indicators of three soil?based ES, carbon storage, water quality regulation, and runoff regulation, in a historically agricultural urban landscape and asked (1) How do ES indicators vary with contemporary land cover and time since development? (2) Do ES indicators vary primarily among land?cover classes, within land?cover classes, or within sites? (3) What is the relative contribution of urban land?cover classes to potential citywide ES provision? We measured biophysical indicators (soil carbon [C], available phosphorus [P], and saturated hydraulic conductivity [Ks]) in 100 sites across five land?cover classes, spanning an ~125?year gradient of time since development within each land?cover class. Potential for ES provision was substantial in urban green spaces, including developed land. Runoff regulation services (high Ks) were highest in forests; water quality regulation (low P) was highest in open spaces and grasslands; and open spaces and developed land (e.g., residential yards) had the highest C storage. In developed land covers, both C and P increased with time since development, indicating effects of historical land?use on contemporary ES and trade?offs between two important ES. Among?site differences accounted for a high proportion of variance in soil properties in forests, grasslands, and open space, while residential areas had high within?site variability, underscoring the leverage city residents have to improve urban ES provision. Developed land covers contributed most ES supply at the citywide scale, even after accounting for potential impacts of impervious surfaces. Considering the full mosaic of urban green space and its history is needed to estimate the kinds and magnitude of ES provided in cities, and to augment regional ES assessments that often ignore or underestimate urban ES supply.10acarbon10aecosystem services10aHistorical ecology10aland‐use change10aphosphorus10arunoff regulation10asaturated hydraulic conductivity10asoil10aUrban ecosystems10aWater quality1 aZiter, Carly1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttps://doi.org/10.1002/eap.168902504nas a2200217   4500008004100000020001400041245009300055210006900148260001100217300001100228520182300239653002802062653002302090653002302113653002002136653002102156100001702177700002102194700002302215856004802238       2017                        eng d  a1572-976100aHow do land-use legacies affect ecosystem services in United States cultural landscapes?0 aHow do landuse legacies affect ecosystem services in United Stat  c2017//  a1 - 143 aLandscape-scale studies of ecosystem services (ES) have increased, but few consider land-use history. Historical land use may be especially important in cultural landscapes, producing legacies that influence ecosystem structure, function, and biota that in turn affect ES supply. Our goal was to generate a conceptual framework for understanding when land-use legacies matter for ES supply in well-studied agricultural,urban, and exurban US landscapes. We synthesized illustrative examples from published literature in which landscape legacies were demonstrated or are likely to inﬂuence ES. We suggest three related conditions in which land-use legacies are important for understanding current ES supply. (1) Intrinsically slow ecological processes govern ES supply, illustrated for soil-based and hydrologic services impaired by slowly processed pollutants. (2) Time lags between land-use change and ecosystem responses delay effects on ES supply, illustrated for biodiversity-based services that may experience an ES debt. (3) Threshold relationships exist, such that changes in ES are difﬁcult to reverse,and legacy lock-in disconnects contemporary landscapes from ES supply, illustrated by hydrologic services. Mismatches between contemporary landscape patterns and mechanisms underpinning ES supply yield unexpected patterns of ES. Today’s land-use decisions will generate tomorrow’s legacies, and ES will be affected if processes underpinning ES are affected by land-use legacies. Research priorities include understanding effects of urban abandonment, new contaminants, and interactions of land-use legacies and climate change. Improved understanding of historical effects will improve management of contemporary ES, and aid in decision-making as new challenges to sustaining cultural landscapes arise.10aAgricultural ecosystems10aExurban ecosystems10aHistorical ecology10aland-use change10aUrban ecosystems1 aZiter, Carly1 aGraves, Rose, A.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0545-402495nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245009100055210006900146260001100215300001100226520172200237100001901959700001301978700002001991700002702011700001802038700002302056700002402079700002202103700001702125700002102142700003002163856004802193       2017                        eng d  a1435-062900aThe Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed0 aInfluence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agri  c2017//  a1 - 153 aDecades of fertilizer and manure applications have led to a buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and sediments, commonly referred to as legacy P. Legacy P can provide a long-term source of P to surface waters where it causes eutrophication. Using a suite of numerical models, we investigated the influence of legacy P on water quality in the Yahara Watershed of southern Wisconsin, USA. The suite included Agro-IBIS, a terrestrial ecosystem model; THMB, a hydrologic and nutrient routing model; and the Yahara Water Quality Model which estimates water quality indicators in the Yahara chain of lakes. Using five alternative scenarios of antecedent P storage (legacy P) in soils and channels under historical climate conditions, we simulated outcomes of P yield from the landscape, lake P loading, and three lake water quality indicators. Legacy P had a significant effect on lake loads and water quality. Across the five scenarios for Lake Mendota, the largest and most upstream lake, average P yield (kg ha−1) varied by −41 to +22%, P load (kg y−1) by −35 to +14%, summer total P (TP) concentration (mg l−1) by −25 to +12%, Secchi depth (m) by −7 to +3%, and the probability of hypereutrophy by −67 to +34%, relative to baseline conditions. The minimum storage scenario showed that a 35% reduction in present-day loads to Lake Mendota corresponded with a 25% reduction in summer TP and smaller reductions in the downstream lakes. Water quality was more vulnerable to heavy rainfall events at higher amounts of P storage and less so at lower amounts. Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with climate change; therefore, water quality could be protected by decreasing P reserves.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aChen, Xi1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aPinkas, Pavel1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aDonner, Simon, D.1 aTsuruta, Kai1 aVadas, Peter, A.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0125-002722nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245016200055210006900217260001500286300001400301490000800315520181200323653002702135653003002162653002502192653003802217653002002255653001702275100002302292700002502315700003002340700002702370856007102397       2017                        eng d  a0304-380000aQuantifying indirect groundwater-mediated effects of urbanization on agroecosystem productivity using MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a complete critical zone model0 aQuantifying indirect groundwatermediated effects of urbanization  c2017/9/10/  a201 - 2190 v3593 aSustainably accommodating future population growth and meeting global food requirements requires understanding feedbacks between ecosystems and belowground hydrological processes. Here, we introduce MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a new dynamic ecosystem model including groundwater flow, and use MAGI to explore the indirect impacts of land use change (urbanization) on landscape-scale agroecosystem productivity (corn yield). We quantify the degree to which urbanization can indirectly impact yield in surrounding areas by changing the amount of groundwater recharge locally and the water table dynamics at landscape scales. We find that urbanization can cause increases or decreases in yield elsewhere, with changes up to approximately +/− 40% under the conditions simulated due entirely to altered groundwater-land surface interactions. Our results indicate that land use change in upland areas has the largest impact on water table depth over the landscape. However, there is a spatial mismatch between areas with the largest water table response to urbanization elsewhere (upland areas) and locations with the strongest yield response to urbanization elsewhere (midslope areas). This mismatch arises from differences in baseline water table depth prior to urbanization. Yield response to urbanization in lowland areas is relatively localized despite large changes to the vertical water balance due to stabilizing ecohydrological feedbacks between root water uptake and lateral groundwater flow. These results demonstrate that hydrological impacts of land use change can propagate through subsurface flow to indirectly impact surrounding ecosystems, and these subsurface connections should be considered when planning land use at a landscape scale to avoid negative outcomes associated with land use change.10aagroecosystem modeling10aDynamic vegetation models10aGroundwater recharge10aGroundwater-land surface coupling10aLand use change10aUrbanization1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aSoylu, Mehmet, Evren1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001730078901830nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245006900055210006800124260000900192520107000201653001701271653002001288653003301308653002201341653001801363653002201381653001801403653001701421100002301438700001801461700003001479700002401509856004301533       2017                        eng d  a1944-800700aUrban heat island-induced increases in evapotranspirative demand0 aUrban heat islandinduced increases in evapotranspirative demand  c20173 aAlthough the importance of vegetation in mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) is known, the impacts of UHI-induced changes in micrometeorological conditions on vegetation are not well understood. Here we show that plant water requirements are significantly higher in urban areas compared to rural areas surrounding Madison, WI, driven by increased air temperature with minimal effects of decreased air moisture content. Local increases in impervious cover are strongly associated with increased evapotranspirative demand in a consistent manner across years, with most increases caused by elevated temperatures during the growing season rather than changes in changes in growing season length. Potential evapotranspiration is up to 10% higher due to the UHI, potentially mitigating changes to the water and energy balances caused by urbanization. Our results indicate that local-scale land cover decisions (increases in impervious cover) can significantly impact evapotranspirative demand, with likely implications for water and carbon cycling in urban ecosystems.10aecohydrology10aplant water use10areference evapotranspiration10aurban climatology10aurban ecology10aurban heat island10aUrban systems10aWater supply1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aSchatz, Jason1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL07219002515nas a2200121   4500008004100000245009200041210007100133300001200204490000800216520210800224100001702332856004402349       2016                        eng d00aThe biodiversity–ecosystem service relationship in urban areas: a quantitative review0 abiodiversity–ecosystem service relationship in urban areas a qua  a761-7680 v1253 aBy 2050, up to 75% of people globally will live in cities. Despite the potential ramifications of this urbanization for ecosystem services (ES), and the importance of locally produced ES for the health and wellbeing of urban residents, syntheses addressing the underlying ecology of ES provision rarely include urban areas. Here, I conduct a quantitative review of urban ES studies in the ecological literature, synthesizing trends across the discipline. I also quantify the extent to which this work considers the organisms and ecosystem components responsible for ES provision using two approaches: assessment of biodiversity–ES relationships, and an adaptation of the service provider concept. The majority of urban ES studies were conducted in western, developed countries, and typically assessed a single service in a single city – largely ignoring ES synergies and tradeoffs, and cross-city comparisons. While several different ES are studied in urban ecosystems, the field is dominated by weather and climate-related regulating services, with assessments of cultural services particularly lacking. Most studies described a habitat type as the service provider; however, studies that considered the biodiversity–ES relationship were more likely to identify a specific functional group, community, or population as the key provider of an ES. The biodiversity–ES relationship itself was most frequently characterized as dependent on the composition of species, functional traits, or structures, rather than correlated with the magnitude of any specific biodiversity metric. While the study of ES in urban ecosystems is increasing, there exists considerable room for further research. Future studies would benefit by expanding the number and categories of ES assessed within and across cities, as well as broadening the geographical scope of urban ES research. Biodiversity–ES assessments in urban ecosystems would also benefit from an expansion of the biodiversity types considered, particularly regarding non-species based approaches, and consideration of non-native and invasive species.1 aZiter, Carly  uhttps://wsc.limnology.wisc.edu/node/14301886nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245010300055210006900158260000900227300001100236490000700247520117000254653001601424653001901440653001201459653002001471653000901491653002201500100002201522700001901544700002901563856005201592       2016                        eng d  a1748-932600aDrought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes0 aDrought effects on US maize and soybean production spatiotempora  c2016  a0940210 v113 aMaximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global foodsecurity needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such asdrought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yielddata to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, andyield is most sensitive to short-term (1–3 month) droughts during critical development periods fromJuly to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability,substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central andsoutheastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustratesfine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in cropproduction is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies thatbuffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term cropproductivity.10aagriculture10aClimate change10adrought10afood production10aSPEI10ayield variability1 aZipper, Samuel, C1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKucharik, Christopher, J  uhttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=9/a=09402102046nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245014800055210006900203300001400272490001500286520122900301653002001530653001301550653001601563653002401579653001301603653001701616100002001633700002301653700002701676700003001703856007101733       2016                        eng d  a2212-041600aIs groundwater recharge always serving us well? Water supply provisioning, crop production, and flood attenuation in conflict in Wisconsin, USA0 agroundwater recharge always serving us well Water supply provisi  a153 - 1650 v21, Part A3 aEcosystem service mapping can provide an avenue for making effective land management decisions in a holistic way. However, mapped quantities do not always appropriately represent the ecosystem services that are used by humans. We highlight this issue with a case study of groundwater recharge, water supply, flooding, and agricultural production in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in southern Wisconsin, USA. Groundwater recharge is typically treated as a beneficial ecosystem service or service indicator whose value to humans monotonically increases with the amount of recharge. While appropriate from a water supply perspective, this relationship breaks down when excess groundwater recharge leads to flooding and crop damage. We suggest moving beyond groundwater recharge as a stand-alone ecosystem service, and instead propose that observations and biophysical models should be used to quantify the final service humans receive from groundwater (e.g. reliability of water supply from a municipal well). Integration of such derived, point-based metrics with other ecosystem services that are more easily represented at the landscape scale remains a challenge for regional ecosystem service inventories and analyses.10aCrop production10aFlooding10aGroundwater10aHydrologic services10aRecharge10aWater supply1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221204161630231502342nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245007300055210006900128260000900197520155700206653002101763653002201784653002501806653001701831653002001848100002001868700002101888700002401909700002201933700001901955700002201974700001701996700002302013856004002036       2016                        eng d  a1461-024800aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology0 aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems eco  c20163 aMacrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space–time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are “expanding”, “shrinking”, “speeding up” and “slowing down” ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.10aHierarchy theory10alandscape ecology10amacrosystems ecology10aspace–time10aspatio-temporal1 aRose, Kevin, C.1 aGraves, Rose, A.1 aHansen, Winslow, D.1 aHarvey, Brian, J.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aWood, Stephen, A.1 aZiter, Carly1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.1271702211nas a2200133   4500008004100000245009300041210006900134260001500203520171800218100002001936700002701956700002501983856006902008       2016                        eng d00aInvasive species triggers a massive loss of ecosystem services through a trophic cascade0 aInvasive species triggers a massive loss of ecosystem services t  c2016/03/213 aDespite growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem services and the economic and ecological harm caused by invasive species, linkages between invasions, changes in ecosystem functioning, and in turn, provisioning of ecosystem services remain poorly documented and poorly understood. We evaluate the economic impacts of an invasion that cascaded through a food web to cause substantial declines in water clarity, a valued ecosystem service. The predatory zooplankton, the spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), invaded the Laurentian Great Lakes in the 1980s and has subsequently undergone secondary spread to inland lakes, including Lake Mendota (Wisconsin), in 2009. In Lake Mendota, Bythotrephes has reached unparalleled densities compared with in other lakes, decreasing biomass of the grazer Daphnia pulicaria and causing a decline in water clarity of nearly 1 m. Time series modeling revealed that the loss in water clarity, valued at US$140 million (US$640 per household), could be reversed by a 71% reduction in phosphorus loading. A phosphorus reduction of this magnitude is estimated to cost between US$86.5 million and US$163 million (US$430–US$810 per household). Estimates of the economic effects of Great Lakes invasive species may increase considerably if cases of secondary invasions into inland lakes, such as Lake Mendota, are included. Furthermore, such extreme cases of economic damages call for increased investment in the prevention and control of invasive species to better maximize the economic benefits of such programs. Our results highlight the need to more fully incorporate ecosystem services into our analysis of invasive species impacts, management, and public policy.1 aWalsh, Jake, R.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aZanden, Jake, Vander  uhttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/03/16/1600366113.abstract02269nas a2200289   4500008004100000020001400041245010100055210006900156260000900225300001100234490000700245520139300252653002701645653001901672653001901691653001801710653001801728653002201746653002501768100002201793700001801815700001801833700002901851700002401880700002301904856005201927       2016                        eng d  a1748-932600aUrban heat island impacts on plant phenology: intra-urban variability and response to land cover0 aUrban heat island impacts on plant phenology intraurban variabil  c2016  a0540230 v113 aDespite documented intra-urban heterogeneity in the urban heat island (UHI) effect, little is knownabout spatial or temporal variability in plant response to the UHI. Using an automated temperaturesensor network in conjunction with Landsat-derived remotely sensed estimates of start/end of thegrowing season, we investigate the impacts of the UHI on plant phenology in the city of Madison WI(USA) for the 2012–2014 growing seasons. Median urban growing season length (GSL) estimated fromtemperature sensors is ∼5 d longer than surrounding rural areas, and UHI impacts on GSL arerelatively consistent from year-to-year. Parks within urban areas experience a subdued expression ofGSL lengthening resulting from interactions between the UHI and a park cool island effect. Acrossall growing seasons, impervious cover in the area surrounding each temperature sensor explains >50%of observed variability in phenology. Comparisons between long-term estimates of annual meanphenological timing, derived from remote sensing, and temperature-based estimates of individualgrowing seasons show no relationship at the individual sensor level. The magnitude of disagreementbetween temperature-based and remotely sensed phenology is a function of impervious and grass coversurrounding the sensor, suggesting that realized GSL is controlled by both local land cover andmicrometeorological conditions.10aland surface phenology10aremote sensing10asensor network10aurban climate10aurban ecology10aurban heat island10avegetation phenology1 aZipper, Samuel, C1 aSchatz, Jason1 aSingh, Aditya1 aKucharik, Christopher, J1 aTownsend, Philip, A1 aLoheide, Steven, P  uhttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=5/a=05402302622nas a2200277   4500008004100000020001400041245011400055210006900169260001200238520171500250653003001965653002401995653002302019653003102042653002702073653001702100653001402117653002602131653003602157653001602193100002302209700002502232700002002257700002402277856004302301       2015                        eng d  a1944-797300aUntangling the effects of shallow groundwater and soil texture as drivers of subfield-scale yield variability0 aUntangling the effects of shallow groundwater and soil texture a  c07/20153 aWater table depth (WTD), soil texture, and growing season weather conditions all play critical roles in determining agricultural yield; however, the interactions among these three variables have never been explored in a systematic way. Using a combination of field observations and biophysical modeling, we answer two questions: (1) under what conditions can a shallow water table provide a groundwater yield subsidy and/or penalty to corn production?; and, (2) how do soil texture and growing season weather conditions influence the relationship between WTD and corn yield? Subfield-scale yield patterns during a dry (2012) and wet (2013) growing season are used to identify sensitivity to weather. Areas of the field that are negatively impacted by wet growing seasons have the shallowest observed WTD (< 1 m), while areas with consistently strong yield have intermediate WTD (1-3 m). Parts of the field that perform consistently poorly are characterized by deep WTD (> 3 m) and coarse soil textures. Modeling results find that beneficial impacts of shallow groundwater are more common than negative impacts under the conditions studied, and that the optimum WTD is shallower in coarser soils. While groundwater yield subsidies have a higher frequency and magnitude in coarse-grained soils, the optimum WTD responds to growing season weather at a relatively constant rate across soil types. We conclude that soil texture defines a baseline upon which WTD and weather interact to determine overall yield. Our work has implications for water resource management, climate/land use change impacts on agricultural production, and precision agriculture. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.10a0402 Agricultural systems10a0486 Soils/pedology10a1813 Eco-hydrology10a1829 Groundwater hydrology10aagroecosystem modeling10aAgroIBIS-VSF10aHydrus-1D10aPrecision agriculture10asoil-plant-atmosphere continuum10awater table1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aSoylu, Mehmet, Evren1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015WR01752202747nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245013800055210006900193260000900262300001100271490000800282520193800290653002102228653001902249653002302268653002602291653002602317653002002343653002102363100002302384700002702407856007102434       2014                        eng d  a0168-192300aUsing evapotranspiration to assess drought sensitivity on a subfield scale with HRMET, a high resolution surface energy balance model0 aUsing evapotranspiration to assess drought sensitivity on a subf  c2014  a91-1020 v1973 aAbstract Evapotranspiration (ET) rates provide a valuable within-season indicator of plant productivity, as well as data on fluxes of water in a landscape. Applying remote sensing for ET estimation has potential to improve the sustainable management of water resources in agricultural settings. Most current ET models, however, rely on ‘dry’ and ‘wet’ pixels within a given scene to partition turbulent fluxes between latent and sensible heat, thus limiting their ability to map ET throughout the growing season at extremely high (meter scale) spatial resolutions. Here, we develop a field-validated surface energy balance model, High Resolution Mapping of EvapoTranspiration (HRMET), which requires only basic meteorological data, spatial surface temperature and canopy structure data. We use HRMET to estimate ET rates over two commercial cornfields in south-central Wisconsin during the 2012 growing season, which was characterized by severe drought. HRMET results indicate that the magnitude of within-field variability in ET rates was primarily driven by water availability. The application of remotely sensed data to precision agriculture has also been hampered by turnaround time between image acquisition and availability. We introduce relative ET (ETR), which enables comparison of ET rates between image dates by normalizing for variability caused by weather and crop stage. ETR also provides an intuitive, index-like metric for evaluating spatial variability in ET on a subfield scale. ETR maps illuminate persistent patterns in ET across measurement dates that may be driven by soil water availability and topography. ETR is used to develop a novel paired-image technique that can map subfield sensitivity classes to stressors such as drought. Sensitivity class mapping can be used to circumvent issues related to turnaround time to facilitate the incorporation of remotely sensed data into precision agriculture.10aDrought response10aEnergy balance10aEvapotranspiration10aPrecision agriculture10aSpatial heterogeneity10aThermal imagery10aYield monitoring1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192314001518