02551nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245014100055210006900196260001600265300001100281490000800292520173200300653001602032653002302048653002802071653001002099653001002109100002102119700001502140700001202155700001302167700001602180700001802196856007102214       2020                        eng d  a0169-204600aEcological worldview, agricultural or natural resource-based activities, and geography affect perceived importance of ecosystem services0 aEcological worldview agricultural or natural resourcebased activ  c2020/05/01/  a1037680 v1973 aUnderstanding public perceptions of the importance of ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for the development and communication of sustainable management and policies. Yet public perspectives on ES and their sociocultural and geographic patterns are not well understood. This study asks: Which ES are perceived as more or less important by the general public?; Which ES are considered most similar when the public are asked to evaluate the importance of specific water, agricultural and natural resources ES?; And, what individual and geographic factors are associated with perceived importance of different ES? We conducted a survey of residents in an urban and agricultural watershed in the U.S. Upper Midwest (n = 1136). This study asked respondents about a wider range of ES than is typical, and examines how ecological worldviews influence the perceived importance of ES. Respondents rated regional provision of drinking and surface water quality, clean lakes and rivers for wildlife, and a reliable supply of drinking and surface water most important. Those with a stronger ecological worldview tended to rate natural areas and processes as more important and agricultural products as less important than respondents with a more anthropocentric worldview. Perceived importance of various ES was also predicted by other individual-level factors relating to livelihood, outdoor recreation, and proximity to lakes, forests and agriculture. For example, respondents with livelihoods dependent on agriculture rated agricultural products and rural character highly. These findings bolster the case for more context-specific assessments of public importance ratings for environmental benefits to inform planning and management.10aagriculture10aecosystem services10aNew Ecological Paradigm10aUrban10aWater1 aWardropper, C.B.1 aMase, A.S.1 aQiu, J.1 aKohl, P.1 aBooth, E.G.1 aRissman, A.R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461930586901905nas a2200157   4500008004100000020001400041245007000055210006900125260001500194300001300209490000800222520142200230100002601652700002301678856004601701       2019                        eng d  a1573-148000aAdaptations to extreme storm events by conservation organizations0 aAdaptations to extreme storm events by conservation organization  c2019/01/01  a85 - 1010 v1523 aExtreme precipitation events are associated with increased runoff of sediment and nutrients into surface waters, exacerbating water quality problems and creating challenges for soil and water managers. This change in the hydrologic cycle is expected to intensify under future climate change. Soil and water conservation professionals responsible for advising farmers and other land managers are on the front lines of adaptation to these climate change impacts. This study uses a survey of Soil and Water Conservation District staff (n = 260) in the United States Upper Midwest to better understand adaptation planning and implementation and the factors influencing adaptations by public organizations. In contrast to a typical planning-implementation gap finding, our respondents report a greater emphasis on some kinds of adaptation actions over planning. We find that the concerns of individual government employees about climate change have a greater association with adaptation planning strategies (e.g., planning document updates) compared to implemented adaptations on-the-ground (e.g., stream buffer installation). Also, weather projections were being used in conjunction with both adaptation planning and implementation. This study contributes to efforts to open up the black box of adaptation decision-making in the public sector, revealing the important role of individual concerns and information use.1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2342-801442nas a2200133   4500008004100000245011000041210006900151260001500220520093800235100002201173700001701195700001901212856007701231       2018                        eng d00aInnovation in Outcomes-Based Water Quality Policy: A Case Study from the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA0 aInnovation in OutcomesBased Water Quality Policy A Case Study fr  c2018/01/013 aThis case examines the risks and opportunities for stakeholders involved in an experimental water quality management program in Wisconsin, USA. This program pays for pounds of pollution reduced through soil conservation practices on farm fields and other high-runoff areas across the landscape—nonpoint sources of pollution—by redirecting funds from the sewerage plant and municipal point sources of pollution. Uncertain monitoring and modeling of pollution sources used for program payments and accountability create perceived and real risks to program participants and the environment, including the threat of regulatory enforcement, lost revenue, and failure to achieve environmental outcomes. On the other hand, in this case study, regulatory flexibility also opened a space for stakeholder dialog and programmatic cooperation that could lead to more adaptive and locally acceptable watershed pollution control in the future.1 aWardropper, Chloe1 aGillon, Sean1 aRissman, Adena  uhttp://cse.ucpress.edu/content/early/2018/08/20/cse.2018.001222.abstract02863nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245008600055210006900141300001400210490000700224520215000231653001302381653002802394653002202422653001802444653001902462653001802481100001902499700002102518700002002539700002302559856003902582       2017                        eng d  a1939-558200aAnnual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of lake water clarity0 aAnnual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of l  a632 - 6430 v273 aUnderstanding how and why lakes vary and respond to different drivers through time and space is needed to understand, predict, and manage freshwater quality in an era of rapidly changing land use and climate. Water clarity regulates many characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and is responsive to watershed features, making it a sentinel of environmental change. However, whether precipitation alters the relative importance of features that influence lake water clarity or the spatial scales at which they operate is unknown. We used a dataset of thousands of north temperate lakes and asked: (1) How does water clarity differ between a very wet versus dry year? (2) Does the relative importance of different watershed features, or the spatial extent at which they are measured, vary between wet and dry years? (3) What lake and watershed characteristics regulate long-term water clarity trends? Among lakes, water clarity was reduced and less variable in the wet year than in the dry year; furthermore, water clarity was reduced much more in high-clarity lakes during the wet year than in low-clarity lakes. Climate, land use/land cover, and lake morphometry explained most variance in clarity among lakes in both years, but the spatial scales at which some features were important differed between the dry and wet years. Watershed percent agriculture was most important in the dry year, whereas riparian zone percent agriculture (around each lake and upstream features) was most important in the wet year. Between 1991 and 2012, water clarity declined in 23% of lakes and increased in only 6% of lakes. Conductance influenced the direction of temporal trend (clarity declined in lakes with low conductance), whereas the proportion of watershed wetlands, catchment-to-lake-area ratio, and lake maximum depth interacted with antecedent precipitation. Many predictors of water clarity, such as lake depth and landscape position, are features that cannot be readily managed. Given trends of increasing precipitation, eliminating riparian zone agriculture or keeping it <10% of area may be an effective option to maintain or improve water clarity.10aland use10aland-water interactions10alandscape ecology10aprecipitation10aremote sensing10aWater quality1 aRose, Kevin, C1 aGreb, Steven, R.1 aDiebel, Matthew1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.147102399nas a2200277   4500008004100000245006300041210006200104260000900166490000700175520157000182653002701752653001501779653002901794653003501823653001601858653001201874653003001886653001801916653001701934100002301951700001901974700002201993700002402015700002602039856005602065       2017                        eng d00aPublic access to spatial data on private-land conservation0 aPublic access to spatial data on privateland conservation  c20170 v223 aInformation is critical for environmental governance. The rise of digital mapping has the potential to advance private-land conservation by assisting with conservation planning, monitoring, evaluation, and accountability. However, privacy concerns from private landowners and the capacity of conservation entities can influence efforts to track spatial data. We examine public access to geospatial data on conserved private lands and the reasons data are available or unavailable. We conduct a qualitative comparative case study based on analysis of maps, documents, and interviews. We compare four conservation programs involving different conservation tools: conservation easements (the growing but incomplete National Conservation Easement Database), regulatory mitigation (gaps in tracking U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service&#8217;s endangered species habitat mitigation), contract payments (lack of spatial data on U.S. Department of Agriculture&#8217;s Conservation Reserve Program due to Farm Bill restrictions), and property-tax incentives (online mapping of Wisconsin&#8217;s managed forest tax program). These cases illuminate the capacity and privacy reasons for current incomplete or inaccessible spatial data and the politics of mapping private land. If geospatial data are to contribute fully to planning, evaluation, and accountability, we recommend improving information system capacity, enhancing learning networks, and reducing legal and administrative barriers to information access, while balancing the right to information and the right to privacy.10aconservation easements10acost share10aEnvironmental governance10aGeographic Information Systems10aland trusts10aprivacy10aprivate-land conservation10atax incentive10atransparency1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aOwley, Jessica1 aL'Roe, Andrew, W.1 aMorris, Amy, Wilson1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.  uhttps://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss2/art24/02409nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245007900055210006900134260001400203300001200217490000700229520164400236653002301880653002501903653003001928653001901958653002301977653002502000100002302025700002202048700002602070856007102096       2017                        eng d  a1462-901100aPublic support for carrot, stick, and no-government water quality policies0 aPublic support for carrot stick and nogovernment water quality p  c2017/10//  a82 - 890 v763 aPublic support for environmental policy provides an important foundation for democratic governance. Numerous policy innovations may improve nonpoint source pollution, but little research has examined which types of individuals are likely to support various runoff reduction policies. We conducted a household mail survey of 1136 residents in southern Wisconsin. In general, residents were more likely to support water quality policies if they were communitarians, egalitarians, concerned about water pollution, and perceived water quality as poor. The majority of respondents somewhat to strongly supported all of the seven proposed water quality policies, but opposed relying on voluntary action without government involvement on farms. Residents had higher support for incentives and market-based approaches (carrot policies) than regulation and taxes (stick policies). A more complicated pattern emerged in within-subject comparisons of residents’ views of carrot and stick approaches. Stick approaches polarized respondents by decreasing support among people with individualistic worldviews, while slightly increasing support among people with communitarian worldviews. Residents with an agricultural occupation were more likely to support voluntary, non-governmental approaches for reducing agricultural runoff, and were also more likely to support regulation for reducing urban lawn runoff. This research highlights the dominant role of cultural worldviews and the secondary roles of water pollution concern, perceived water quality, and self-interest in explaining support for diverse policies to reduce nonpoint source pollution.10aCultural cognition10aEnvironmental policy10aNonpoint source pollution10aPolicy support10aPublic preferences10aWater quality policy1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aKohl, Patrice, A.1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111630740702250nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245008000055210006900135260001300204300001400217490000700231520146400238653002401702653002801726653002801754653001501782653001601797653001801813653002801831100002601859700001701885700002301902856007101925       2017                        eng d  a0264-837700aUncertain monitoring and modeling in a watershed nonpoint pollution program0 aUncertain monitoring and modeling in a watershed nonpoint pollut  c2017/9//  a690 - 7010 v673 aPerformance-based programs governing land use rely on environmental measurement, prediction, and assessment. Yet complex, nonlinear social and environmental change can lead to uncertainties in quantification and forecasting and create challenges for operationalizing programs. This research examines the roles that environmental monitoring and modeling uncertainty play in experimental land and water governance through an analysis of a regulatory water quality program in Wisconsin, USA. The case demonstrates how uncertainties in measurement and prediction of pollution runoff shape program design and participant perceptions. We draw on interviews, a survey, participant observation, and policy document analysis to illustrate how regulators and participants (including municipalities, sewerage treatment plants, farmers and nonprofit organizations) perceive and react to uncertainty. Because current and future water quality data are based largely on model estimates, but regulatory compliance will likely be based on measured in-stream outcomes, participants must evaluate potential risks of involvement. Stakeholders have relied on partnership building and legal modifications such as extended compliance timelines to reduce the risks associated with uncertainty. Experimentation under uncertainty led to sustained stakeholder dialogue, and an iterative process of deciding how monitoring and modeling should be used to track and prove program progress.10aAdaptive governance10aExperimental governance10aPerformance measurement10aRegulation10aUncertainty10aWater quality10aWatershed collaboration1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aGillon, Sean1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026483771631204202342nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245007300055210006900128260000900197520155700206653002101763653002201784653002501806653001701831653002001848100002001868700002101888700002401909700002201933700001901955700002201974700001701996700002302013856004002036       2016                        eng d  a1461-024800aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology0 aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems eco  c20163 aMacrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space–time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are “expanding”, “shrinking”, “speeding up” and “slowing down” ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.10aHierarchy theory10alandscape ecology10amacrosystems ecology10aspace–time10aspatio-temporal1 aRose, Kevin, C.1 aGraves, Rose, A.1 aHansen, Winslow, D.1 aHarvey, Brian, J.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aWood, Stephen, A.1 aZiter, Carly1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.1271702606nas a2200241   4500008004100000245006900041210006900110260000900179490000700188520184100195653002402036653002502060653003602085653002902121653002202150100002602172700001702198700002002215700002402235700002702259700002302286856005502309       2016                        eng d00aLocal perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development0 aLocal perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development  c20160 v213 aContrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios&#8217; narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for  creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.10ascenario archetypes10ascenario development10asocial and environmental change10astakeholder perspectives10awatershed futures1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aGillon, Sean1 aMase, Amber, S.1 aMcKinney, Emily, A.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss2/art12/02533nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245013100055210006900186260001500255300001200270490000700282520175400289653003302043653001902076653002902095653002002124653002102144653001802165100001702183700002002200700002302220856004802243       2016                        eng d  a1436-379800aShifting drivers and static baselines in environmental governance: challenges for improving and proving water quality outcomes0 aShifting drivers and static baselines in environmental governanc  c2015/04/04  a759-7750 v163 aUnderstanding the conditions that enable or constrain success in environmental governance is crucial for developing effective interventions and adapting approaches. Efforts to achieve and assess success in environmental quality improvement are often impeded by changes in conditions that drive outcomes but lie outside the scope of intervention and monitoring. We document how long-term changes in land use, agriculture, and climate act as non-stationary, shifting drivers of change that combine to render water quality management interventions less effective and increasingly difficult to assess. Focusing on the Yahara River watershed of south-central Wisconsin, USA, we ask how baselines influence program modeling, monitoring, and evaluation, as well as adaptation in governance approach. Through historical trend, GIS, and policy and qualitative data analyses, we find that changes in long-term land use and precipitation pattern dynamics exert tremendous pressure on water quality outcomes but are not captured in snapshot baseline assessments used in management planning or evaluation. Specifically, agricultural sector change related to the intensification of milk and manure production is increasingly challenging to address through best management practices, and flashier precipitation associated with climate change makes it difficult to achieve goals and establish a causal connection between management interventions and outcomes. Analysis of shifting drivers demonstrates challenges facing environmental governance in the context of climatic and social–ecological change. We suggest that goal setting, program design, and evaluation incorporate new modes of analysis that address slowly changing and external determinants of success.10aAgricultural intensification10aClimate change10aEnvironmental governance10aLand use change10aShifting drivers10aWater quality1 aGillon, Sean1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0787-002754nas a2200289   4500008004100000020001400041245012100055210006900176260001100245300001100256520184900267653002102116653001502137653002402152653002502176653002202201653002102223653002002244653002602264653001402290653002102304100001902325700002602344700002302370700002302393856004802416       2016                        eng d  a1572-976100aSpatial fit between water quality policies and hydrologic ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural landscape0 aSpatial fit between water quality policies and hydrologic ecosys  c2016//  a1 - 173 aContext
Sustaining hydrologic ecosystem services is critical for human wellbeing but challenged by land use for agriculture and urban development. Water policy and management strive to safeguard hydrologic services, yet implementation is often fragmented. Understanding the spatial fit between water polices and hydrologic services is needed to assess the spatial targeting of policy portfolios at landscape scales.
Objectives
We investigated spatial fit between 30 different public water policies and four hydrologic services (surface and groundwater quality, freshwater supply, and flood regulation) in the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA)—a Midwestern landscape that typifies tensions between agriculture, urban development, and freshwater resources.
Methods
Spatial extent of water policy implementation was mapped, and indicators of hydrologic services were quantified for subwatersheds using empirical estimates and validated spatial models.
Results
We found a spatial misfit between the overall spatial implementation of water policy and regions of water quality concern, indicating a need for better targeting. Water quality policies can also be leveraged to protect other hydrologic services such as freshwater supply and flood regulation. Individual policy application areas varied substantially in their spatial congruence with each hydrologic service, indicating that not all services are protected by a single policy and highlighting the need for a broad spectrum of policies to sustain hydrologic services in diverse landscapes. We also identified where future policies could be targeted for improving hydrologic services.
Conclusions
Joint spatial analysis of policies and ecosystem services is effective for assessing spatial aspects of institutional fit, and provides a foundation for guiding future policy efforts.10aFlood regulation10aFreshwater10aGroundwater quality10aGroundwater recharge10alandscape ecology10aPolicy targeting10aSpatial overlap10aSurface-water quality10aWisconsin10aYahara Watershed1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0428-001877nas a2200205   4500008004100000020001400041245013700055210007100192260000900263300001400272520116900286653002101455653002201476653003201498653002701530653003301557100002301590700001701613856004101630       2016                        eng d  a1755-263X00aWhere are Ecology and Biodiversity in Social–Ecological Systems Research? A Review of Research Methods and Applied Recommendations0 aWhere are Ecology and Biodiversity in Social–Ecological Systems   c2016  an/a - n/a3 aUnderstanding social–ecological systems (SES) is critical for effective sustainability and biodiversity conservation initiatives. We systematically reviewed SES research to examine whether and how it integrates ecological and social domains and generates decision-relevant recommendations. We aim to inform SES research methods and improve the relevance of SES research. Of 120 SES articles, two-thirds included an ecological variable while all but one included a social variable. Biodiversity was a less common ecological variable than resource productivity, land cover, and abiotic measures. We found six diverse social–ecological linking methods: modeling (9%), causal loop diagrams (18%), quantitative correlations (8%), separate quantitative measures (13%), indicators (14%), and rich description (37%). Policy recommendations addressing social–ecological dynamics were more likely in articles including both ecological and social variables, suggesting the importance of research approach for policy and practice application. Further integration of ecology and biodiversity is needed to support governance, policy, and management for SES sustainability.10aApplied research10ainterdisciplinary10asocial–ecological systems10asustainability science10asystematic literature review1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aGillon, Sean  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.1225002496nas a2200181   4500008004100000245009000041210006900131520186900200653002902069653003202098653002202130653003002152653002802182653002002210100002302230700001802253856004302271       2015                        eng d00aAccounting for Results: How Conservation Organizations Report Performance Information0 aAccounting for Results How Conservation Organizations Report Per3 aEnvironmental program performance information is in high demand, but little research suggests why conservation organizations differ in reporting performance information. We compared performance measurement and reporting by four private-land conservation organizations: Partners for Fish and Wildlife in the US Fish and Wildlife Service (national government), Forest Stewardship Council—US (national nonprofit organization), Land and Water Conservation Departments (local government), and land trusts (local nonprofit organization). We asked: (1) How did the pattern of performance reporting relationships vary across organizations? (2) Was political conflict among organizations’ principals associated with greater performance information? and (3) Did performance information provide evidence of program effectiveness? Based on our typology of performance information, we found that most organizations reported output measures such as land area or number of contracts, some reported outcome indicators such as adherence to performance standards, but few modeled or measured environmental effects. Local government Land and Water Conservation Departments reported the most types of performance information, while local land trusts reported the fewest. The case studies suggest that governance networks influence the pattern and type of performance reporting, that goal conflict among principles is associated with greater performance information, and that performance information provides unreliable causal evidence of program effectiveness. Challenging simple prescriptions to generate more data as evidence, this analysis suggests (1) complex institutional and political contexts for environmental program performance and (2) the need to supplement performance measures with in-depth evaluations that can provide causal inferences about program effectiveness.10aEnvironmental governance10aEvidence-based conservation10aLand conservation10aMonitoring and evaluation10aPerformance measurement10aPolicy outcomes1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aSmail, Robert  uhttps://wsc.limnology.wisc.edu/node/8802238nas a2200205   4500008004100000020001400041245012700055210006900182300001200251490000800263520151400271653002901785653002601814653002801840653002601868100002601894700001801920700002301938856007101961       2015                        eng d  a0169-204600aFragmented water quality governance: Constraints to spatial targeting for nutrient reduction in a Midwestern USA watershed0 aFragmented water quality governance Constraints to spatial targe  a64 - 750 v1373 aSpatially targeted interventions improve the effectiveness of environmental policy, but are challenged by implementation constraints and coordination among governments. Spatial targeting research rarely acknowledges the diversity of actors navigating complicated institutional dynamics to deploy environmental policy instruments. We mapped 35 nutrient reduction interventions by federal, state, county, and municipal governments and interviewed 15 policymakers and agency staff in Wisconsin's Yahara Watershed, USA to understand how multilevel governance impacts spatial targeting and implementation of water quality policy. Our Geographic Information System database showed that county governments implemented the most policies, while the state promulgated the most rules, with uneven application of policy interventions across the landscape. Spatial targeting differed between agricultural and non-agricultural policies and by type of tool (land acquisition, direct management, incentive, and regulation). We found a negative correlation between areas of policy intervention and phosphorus yield across government levels (p < 0.001), with the strongest negative correlations by implementing agency. Interviews revealed that for government agencies, spatial targeting is constrained by program and funding requirements and data limitations for soil and land use practices. In order to target the highest phosphorus yielding subwatersheds, governments will need to alter the spatial location of their efforts.10aMidwestern USA watershed10aMultilevel governance10aSpatial policy analysis10aSurface water quality1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aChang, Chaoyi1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461400309001818nas a2200325   4500008004100000245007300041210006900114260001500183490000800198520083700206100001801043700002601061700002201087700002301109700001701132700002301149700002001172700002701192700001801219700002401237700001601261700001901277700001701296700002301313700002201336700002901358700002001387700002101407856006401428       2015                        eng d00aPlanetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet0 aPlanetary boundaries Guiding human development on a changing pla  c2015/02/130 v3473 aThe planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.1 aSteffen, Will1 aRichardson, Katherine1 aRockström, Johan1 aCornell, Sarah, E.1 aFetzer, Ingo1 aBennett, Elena, M.1 aBiggs, Reinette1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 ade Vries, Wim1 ade Wit, Cynthia, A.1 aFolke, Carl1 aGerten, Dieter1 aHeinke, Jens1 aMace, Georgina, M.1 aPersson, Linn, M.1 aRamanathan, Veerabhadran1 aReyers, Belinda1 aSörlin, Sverker  uhttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.abstract02498nas a2200373   4500008004100000245008600041210006900127260000900196490000700205520142900212653002401641653001201665653002301677653001901700653001501719653001001734653002001744653001501764653001401779100002701793700002001820700001701840700003001857700002001887700002001907700001901927700001901946700002301965700001901988700001702007700001902024700002602043856005502069       2015                        eng d00aPlausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA0 aPlausible futures of a socialecological system Yahara watershed   c20150 v203 aAgricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km&#178;, population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed&#8217;s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010&#8211;2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.10aalternative futures10aclimate10aecosystem services10aeutrophication10agovernance10alakes10aland-use change10aphosphorus10ascenarios1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aGillon, Sean1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven1 aMase, Amber, S.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aSeifert, Jenny1 aSoylu, Evren1 aTurner, Monica1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.  uhttp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art10/01781nas a2200121   4500008004100000245006100041210005800102490000800160520139600168100002301564700002701587856004501614       2015                        eng d00aProgress on Nonpoint Pollution: Barriers & Opportunities0 aProgress on Nonpoint Pollution Barriers Opportunities0 v1443 aNonpoint source pollution is the runoff of pollutants (including soil and nutrients) from agricultural, urban, and other lands (as opposed to point-source pollution, which comes directly from one outlet). Many efforts have been made to combat both types of pollution, so why are we making so little progress in improving water quality by reducing runoff of soil and nutrients into lakes and rivers? This essay examines the challenges inherent in: 1) producing science to predict and assess nonpoint management and policy effectiveness; and 2) using science for management and policy-making. Barriers to demonstrating causality include few experimental designs, different spatial scales for behaviors and measured outcomes, and lags between when policies are enacted and when their effects are seen. Primary obstacles to using science as evidence in nonpoint policy include disagreements about values and preferences, disputes over validity of assumptions, and institutional barriers to reconciling the supply and demand for science. We will illustrate some of these challenges and present possible solutions using examples from the Yahara Watershed in Wisconsin. Overcoming the barriers to nonpoint-pollution prevention may require policy-makers to gain a better understanding of existing scientific knowledge and act to protect public values in the face of remaining scientific uncertainty.1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.  uhttp://www.mitpressjournals.org/loi/daed00972nas a2200121   4500008004100000245006700041210006700108260009800175520047300273100002600746700002200772856005600794       2012                        eng d00aScenarios and Decisionmaking for Complex Environmental Systems0 aScenarios and Decisionmaking for Complex Environmental Systems  aNewtown Square, PAbU.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station3 aScenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional
project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary. Scenarios can help address several of the currently recognized challenges of sustainability science.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R1 aRissman, Adena, R  uhttp://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs-p-107.pdf