02551nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245014100055210006900196260001600265300001100281490000800292520173200300653001602032653002302048653002802071653001002099653001002109100002102119700001502140700001202155700001302167700001602180700001802196856007102214       2020                        eng d  a0169-204600aEcological worldview, agricultural or natural resource-based activities, and geography affect perceived importance of ecosystem services0 aEcological worldview agricultural or natural resourcebased activ  c2020/05/01/  a1037680 v1973 aUnderstanding public perceptions of the importance of ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for the development and communication of sustainable management and policies. Yet public perspectives on ES and their sociocultural and geographic patterns are not well understood. This study asks: Which ES are perceived as more or less important by the general public?; Which ES are considered most similar when the public are asked to evaluate the importance of specific water, agricultural and natural resources ES?; And, what individual and geographic factors are associated with perceived importance of different ES? We conducted a survey of residents in an urban and agricultural watershed in the U.S. Upper Midwest (n = 1136). This study asked respondents about a wider range of ES than is typical, and examines how ecological worldviews influence the perceived importance of ES. Respondents rated regional provision of drinking and surface water quality, clean lakes and rivers for wildlife, and a reliable supply of drinking and surface water most important. Those with a stronger ecological worldview tended to rate natural areas and processes as more important and agricultural products as less important than respondents with a more anthropocentric worldview. Perceived importance of various ES was also predicted by other individual-level factors relating to livelihood, outdoor recreation, and proximity to lakes, forests and agriculture. For example, respondents with livelihoods dependent on agriculture rated agricultural products and rural character highly. These findings bolster the case for more context-specific assessments of public importance ratings for environmental benefits to inform planning and management.10aagriculture10aecosystem services10aNew Ecological Paradigm10aUrban10aWater1 aWardropper, C.B.1 aMase, A.S.1 aQiu, J.1 aKohl, P.1 aBooth, E.G.1 aRissman, A.R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461930586902804nas a2200325   4500008004100000020001400041245010800055210006900163260001600232300001100248490000800259520183200267653001202099653001302111653001102124653001502135653002602150653001402176100001902190700001302209700002702222700002002249700001902269700001902288700002402307700002302331700002302354700003002377856007102407       2019                        eng d  a0048-969700aComparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios0 aComparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water q  c2019/11/25/  a1334840 v6933 aEutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014–2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.10aclimate10aland use10aManure10aphosphorus10aSurface water quality10aWatershed1 aMotew, Melissa1 aChen, Xi1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aSeifert, Jenny1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aTurner, Monica, G.1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971933404702281nas a2200181   4500008004100000020001400041245008400055210006900139260001500208520169500223100001901918700002301937700001901960700002001979700003001999700002402029856004602053       2019                        eng d  a2398-962900aNonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of ecosystem services0 aNonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of eco  c2019/04/293 aGroundwater is a fundamental control on biophysical processes underpinning essential ecosystem services (ES). However, interactions and feedbacks among groundwater, climate and multiple ES remain less well understood. We investigated groundwater effects on a portfolio of food, water and biogeochemical ES indicators in an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Our results show that food production, water quality and quantity, and flood control are most sensitive to groundwater, with the strongest responses under wet and dry climate extremes. Climate mediates groundwater effects, such that several ES have synergies during dry climate, but trade-offs (groundwater increased some ES but declined others) under wet climate. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in groundwater effects on ES, which is driven primarily by water table depth (WTD) and is also sensitive to soil texture and land cover. Most ES indicators respond nonlinearly to WTD when groundwater is within a critical depth (approximately 2.5 m) of land surface, indicating that small WTD changes can have disproportionately large effects on ES in shallow groundwater areas. Within this critical WTD, increasingly shallow groundwater leads to nonlinear increases in surface flood risk, sediment erosion and phosphorus yield; nonlinear decreases in drainage to the deep vadose zone and thus groundwater recharge; and bidirectional responses of crop and grass production, carbon storage and nitrate leaching. Our study illustrates the complex role of groundwater in affecting multiple ES and highlights that strategically managing groundwater may enhance ES resilience to climate extremes in shallow groundwater settings.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.  uhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0278-202894nas a2200289   4500008004100000245009500041210006900136260001600205300001200221490000800233520200700241653001302248653001902261653002302280653002002303653001502323653001702338100002302355700001902378700002002397700001302417700001902430700003002449700002702479700002702506856007102533       2018                        eng d00aContinuous separation of land use and climate effects on the past and future water balance0 aContinuous separation of land use and climate effects on the pas  c2018/10/01/  a106-1220 v5653 aUnderstanding the combined and separate effects of climate and land use change on the water cycle is necessary to mitigate negative impacts. However, existing methodologies typically divide data into discrete (before and after) periods, implicitly representing climate and land use as step changes when in reality these changes are often gradual. Here, we introduce a new regression-based methodological framework designed to separate climate and land use effects on any hydrological flux of interest continuously through time, and estimate uncertainty in the contribution of these two drivers. We present two applications in the Yahara River Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) demonstrating how our approach can be used to understand synergistic or antagonistic relationships between land use and climate in either the past or the future: (1) historical streamflow, baseflow, and quickflow in an urbanizing subwatershed; and (2) simulated future evapotranspiration, drainage, and direct runoff from a suite of contrasting climate and land use scenarios for the entire watershed. In the historical analysis, we show that ∼60% of recent streamflow changes can be attributed to climate, with approximately equal contributions from quickflow and baseflow. However, our continuous method reveals that baseflow is significantly increasing through time, primarily due to land use change and potentially influenced by long-term increases in groundwater storage. In the simulation of future changes, we show that all components of the future water balance will respond more strongly to changes in climate than land use, with the largest potential land use effects on drainage. These results indicate that diverse land use change trajectories may counteract each other while the effects of climate are more homogeneous at watershed scales. Therefore, management opportunities to counteract climate change effects will likely be more effective at smaller spatial scales, where land use trajectories are unidirectional.10aBaseflow10aClimate change10aEvapotranspiration10aLand use change10aStreamflow10aUrbanization1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aChen, Xi1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941830618802390nas a2200217   4500008004100000020001400041245011000055210006900165300001200234490000700246520170400253653002201957653002401979653002302003653002102026653002102047653001402068100001902082700002302101856004802124       2017                        eng d  a1573-146400aEffects of non-native Asian earthworm invasion on temperate forest and prairie soils in the Midwestern US0 aEffects of nonnative Asian earthworm invasion on temperate fores  a73 - 880 v193 aEffects of invasive European earthworms in North America have been well documented, but less is known about ecological consequences of exotic Asian earthworm invasion, in particular Asian jumping worms (Amynthas) that are increasingly reported. Most earthworm invasion research has focused on forests; some Amynthas spp. are native to Asian grasslands and may thrive in prairies with unknown effects. We conducted an earthworm-addition mesocosm experiment with before–after control-impact (BACI) design and a complementary field study in southern Wisconsin, USA, in 2014 to investigate effects of a newly discovered invasion of two Asian jumping worms (Amynthas agrestis and Amynthas tokioensis) on forest and prairie litter and soil nutrient pools. In both studies, A. agrestis and A. tokioensis substantially reduced surface litter (84–95 % decline in foliage litter mass) and increased total carbon, total nitrogen, and available phosphorus in the upper 0–5 cm of soils over the 4-month period from July through October. Soil inorganic nitrogen (ammonium– and nitrate–N) concentration increased across soil depths of 0–25 cm, with greater effects on nitrate–N. Dissolved organic carbon concentration also increased, e.g., 71–108 % increase in the mesocosm experiment. Effects were observed in both forest and prairie soils, with stronger effects in forests. Effects were most pronounced late in the growing season when earthworm biomass likely peaked. Depletion of the litter layer and rapid mineralization of nutrients by non-native Asian jumping worms may make ecosystems more susceptible to nutrient losses, and effects may cascade to understory herbs and other soil biota.10aAmynthas agrestis10aAmynthas tokioensis10aAsian jumping worm10aEcosystem change10aNutrient cycling10aWisconsin1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1264-502186nas a2200157   4500008004100000020001400041245011400055210006900169300001400238490000700252520166100259100002101920700001901941700002001960856004801980       2017                        eng d  a1435-062900aFlashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During a Century of Urbanization and Climate Change0 aFlashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During  a601 - 6150 v203 aGlobally, ecosystem services are threatened by increasing urbanization and more variable precipitation patterns driven by climate change. However, how these drivers interact over long-time scales to affect underlying processes remains poorly understood, hindering our ability to predict their long-term consequences. Here, we use long-term data spanning nearly a century to investigate changes in hydrologic attributes for two lakes in the Upper Midwest with urbanizing watersheds. We quantified flashiness—the variability of runoff rate, volume, or stage-level of waterways—to investigate the concurrent impacts of urbanization and climate change on flashiness and flooding potential. Our results indicate that flashiness generally increased for both lakes over the period of 1916–2013, although this overall trend consists of sub-periods of increase and decrease. Increasing impervious surface area has been the stronger driver of flashiness historically; however, our results suggest that the impact of urbanization may reach a threshold, such that saturation effects would cause large magnitude precipitation events to become a relatively stronger driver of flashiness. Increasing flashiness indicates an increase in flooding potential, documented by increases in the 10- and 100-year flood threshold levels as large as 30 cm. Since flashiness is strongly related to the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, the methodology and results presented here provide a unique approach to gain insight into how non-linear interactions between global change drivers, at multiple time scales, impact the simultaneous provision of multiple services.1 aUsinowicz, Jacob1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKamarainen, Amy  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0042-701886nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245010300055210006900158260000900227300001100236490000700247520117000254653001601424653001901440653001201459653002001471653000901491653002201500100002201522700001901544700002901563856005201592       2016                        eng d  a1748-932600aDrought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes0 aDrought effects on US maize and soybean production spatiotempora  c2016  a0940210 v113 aMaximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global foodsecurity needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such asdrought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yielddata to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, andyield is most sensitive to short-term (1–3 month) droughts during critical development periods fromJuly to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability,substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central andsoutheastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustratesfine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in cropproduction is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies thatbuffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term cropproductivity.10aagriculture10aClimate change10adrought10afood production10aSPEI10ayield variability1 aZipper, Samuel, C1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKucharik, Christopher, J  uhttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=9/a=09402102147nas a2200313   4500008004100000020001400041245014100055210006900196300001200265490000700277520113300284653002501417653001901442653002001461653001401481653003001495653001401525100002001539700001901559700002701578700001801605700001301623700003001636700002701666700002301693700002301716700002301739856007101762       2016                        eng d  a1364-815200aFrom qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale0 aFrom qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios Transla  a80 - 970 v853 aScenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.10aBiophysical modeling10aClimate change10aLand use change10ascenarios10aSocial-ecological systems10aWatershed1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aSchatz, Jason1 aChen, Xi1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide1 aMotew, Melissa, M.1 aSeifert, Jenny, M.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521630493502342nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245007300055210006900128260000900197520155700206653002101763653002201784653002501806653001701831653002001848100002001868700002101888700002401909700002201933700001901955700002201974700001701996700002302013856004002036       2016                        eng d  a1461-024800aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology0 aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems eco  c20163 aMacrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space–time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are “expanding”, “shrinking”, “speeding up” and “slowing down” ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.10aHierarchy theory10alandscape ecology10amacrosystems ecology10aspace–time10aspatio-temporal1 aRose, Kevin, C.1 aGraves, Rose, A.1 aHansen, Winslow, D.1 aHarvey, Brian, J.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aWood, Stephen, A.1 aZiter, Carly1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.1271702754nas a2200289   4500008004100000020001400041245012100055210006900176260001100245300001100256520184900267653002102116653001502137653002402152653002502176653002202201653002102223653002002244653002602264653001402290653002102304100001902325700002602344700002302370700002302393856004802416       2016                        eng d  a1572-976100aSpatial fit between water quality policies and hydrologic ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural landscape0 aSpatial fit between water quality policies and hydrologic ecosys  c2016//  a1 - 173 aContext
Sustaining hydrologic ecosystem services is critical for human wellbeing but challenged by land use for agriculture and urban development. Water policy and management strive to safeguard hydrologic services, yet implementation is often fragmented. Understanding the spatial fit between water polices and hydrologic services is needed to assess the spatial targeting of policy portfolios at landscape scales.
Objectives
We investigated spatial fit between 30 different public water policies and four hydrologic services (surface and groundwater quality, freshwater supply, and flood regulation) in the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA)—a Midwestern landscape that typifies tensions between agriculture, urban development, and freshwater resources.
Methods
Spatial extent of water policy implementation was mapped, and indicators of hydrologic services were quantified for subwatersheds using empirical estimates and validated spatial models.
Results
We found a spatial misfit between the overall spatial implementation of water policy and regions of water quality concern, indicating a need for better targeting. Water quality policies can also be leveraged to protect other hydrologic services such as freshwater supply and flood regulation. Individual policy application areas varied substantially in their spatial congruence with each hydrologic service, indicating that not all services are protected by a single policy and highlighting the need for a broad spectrum of policies to sustain hydrologic services in diverse landscapes. We also identified where future policies could be targeted for improving hydrologic services.
Conclusions
Joint spatial analysis of policies and ecosystem services is effective for assessing spatial aspects of institutional fit, and provides a foundation for guiding future policy efforts.10aFlood regulation10aFreshwater10aGroundwater quality10aGroundwater recharge10alandscape ecology10aPolicy targeting10aSpatial overlap10aSurface-water quality10aWisconsin10aYahara Watershed1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0428-002998nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245009000055210006900145260000900214300001600223490000700239520222300246653001802469653002502487653002202512653002202534653000802556653001802564653002902582653002102611653001802632653002302650100001902673856004002692       2015                        eng d  a1466-823800aA global synthesis of the effects of biological invasions on greenhouse gas emissions0 aglobal synthesis of the effects of biological invasions on green  c2015  a1351 - 13620 v243 aEvidence is mounting that biological invasions profoundly alter the capacity of ecosystems to regulate or mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – a crucial ecosystem service in a changing climate. However, the growing literature has revealed different, even contradictory results and the general pattern over large spatial scales remains obscure. This study synthesizes the effects of invasions by different alien taxa on major GHG emissions.LocationGlobal.MethodsA structured meta-analysis of 68 case studies was performed to determine the generality of the effects of biological invasions on emissions of three GHGs and assess the extent to which the heterogeneity of effects can be explained by recipient ecosystems, invasive taxa, functional traits, climate and methodological aspects.ResultsInvasive alien species increased N2O emissions but promoted carbon sequestration. Effects on CH4 emissions remained inconclusive. Given the general trends, effects differed by ecosystems, with greater N2O emissions in invaded forest and higher increase in carbon stock in invaded grassland. Invasive taxa also mediated the effects of invasions: invasive plants enhanced carbon storage whereas animal invaders consistently showed negative effects. Focusing on exotic plant invasions, N-fixing species caused greater N2O emissions than non-N-fixing species, and for carbon stock, N-fixing and woody plants exerted stronger positive effects than non-N-fixing and herbaceous plants, respectively. Moreover, climatic factors explained the variation in effects of exotic plant invasions but not those of animal invasions. The effects of plant invasions on carbon content varied nonlinearly with climate, with more pronounced effects where temperature and precipitation were extremely high or low.Main conclusionsThis meta-analysis reveals the overall magnitude and direction of the effects of biological invasions on major GHG emissions, demonstrates that the effects vary substantially by GHGs, biological and environmental factors and proposes avenues for future research. These results highlight the importance of considering species traits and local and climatic conditions in assessing and managing biological invaders.10aAlien species10acarbon sequestration10aclimate condition10aecosystem service10aGHG10aglobal change10aglobal warming potential10ainvasion ecology10ameta-analysis10anon-native species1 aQiu, Jiangxiao  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.1236005826nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245011500055210006900170260001500239300001100254490000600265520501900271653002705290653002005317653002205337653001705359653002605376653002605402653001905428653001405447653001405461100001905475700002305494856004305517       2015                        eng d  a2150-892500aImportance of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic ecosystem services in an agricultural watershed0 aImportance of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic e  c2015/11/01  aart2290 v63 aThe sustainability of hydrologic ecosystem services (freshwater benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystems) is challenged by human modification of landscapes. However, the role of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic services at scales relevant to landscape management decisions is poorly understood. In particular, the relative importance of landscape composition (type and proportion of land cover) and configuration (spatial arrangement of cover types) is unclear. We analyzed indicators of production of three hydrologic services (freshwater supply, surface and ground water quality) in 100 subwatersheds in an urbanizing agricultural landscape (Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA) and asked: (1) How do landscape composition and configuration affect supply of hydrologic services (i.e., does spatial pattern matter)? (2) Are there opportunities for small changes in landscape pattern to produce large gains in hydrologic services? Landscape composition and configuration both affected supply of hydrologic services, but composition was consistently more important than configuration for all three services. Together landscape composition and configuration explained more variation in indicators of surface-water quality than in freshwater supply or groundwater quality (Nagelkerke/adjusted R2: 86%, 64%, and 39%, respectively). Surface-water quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and positively correlated with percent forest, grassland and wetland. In addition, surface-water quality was greater in subwatersheds with higher wetland patch density, disaggregated forest patches and lower contagion. Surface-water quality responded nonlinearly to percent cropland and wetland, with greater water quality where cropland covered below 60% and/or wetland above 6% of the subwatershed. Freshwater supply was negatively correlated with percent wetland and urban cover, and positively correlated with urban edge density. Groundwater quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and grassland, and configuration variables were unimportant. Collectively, our study suggests that altering spatial arrangement of land cover will not be sufficient to enhance hydrologic services in an agricultural landscape. Rather, the relative abundance of land cover may need to change to improve hydrologic services. Targeting subwatersheds near the cropland or wetland thresholds may offer local opportunities to enhance surface-water quality with minimal land-cover change.The sustainability of hydrologic ecosystem services (freshwater benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystems) is challenged by human modification of landscapes. However, the role of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic services at scales relevant to landscape management decisions is poorly understood. In particular, the relative importance of landscape composition (type and proportion of land cover) and configuration (spatial arrangement of cover types) is unclear. We analyzed indicators of production of three hydrologic services (freshwater supply, surface and ground water quality) in 100 subwatersheds in an urbanizing agricultural landscape (Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA) and asked: (1) How do landscape composition and configuration affect supply of hydrologic services (i.e., does spatial pattern matter)? (2) Are there opportunities for small changes in landscape pattern to produce large gains in hydrologic services? Landscape composition and configuration both affected supply of hydrologic services, but composition was consistently more important than configuration for all three services. Together landscape composition and configuration explained more variation in indicators of surface-water quality than in freshwater supply or groundwater quality (Nagelkerke/adjusted R2: 86%, 64%, and 39%, respectively). Surface-water quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and positively correlated with percent forest, grassland and wetland. In addition, surface-water quality was greater in subwatersheds with higher wetland patch density, disaggregated forest patches and lower contagion. Surface-water quality responded nonlinearly to percent cropland and wetland, with greater water quality where cropland covered below 60% and/or wetland above 6% of the subwatershed. Freshwater supply was negatively correlated with percent wetland and urban cover, and positively correlated with urban edge density. Groundwater quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and grassland, and configuration variables were unimportant. Collectively, our study suggests that altering spatial arrangement of land cover will not be sufficient to enhance hydrologic services in an agricultural landscape. Rather, the relative abundance of land cover may need to change to improve hydrologic services. Targeting subwatersheds near the cropland or wetland thresholds may offer local opportunities to enhance surface-water quality with minimal land-cover change.10aagricultural landscape10aland management10alandscape ecology10anonlinearity10aspatial configuration10aSpatial heterogeneity10asustainability10asynergies10atradeoffs1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00312.102498nas a2200373   4500008004100000245008600041210006900127260000900196490000700205520142900212653002401641653001201665653002301677653001901700653001501719653001001734653002001744653001501764653001401779100002701793700002001820700001701840700003001857700002001887700002001907700001901927700001901946700002301965700001901988700001702007700001902024700002602043856005502069       2015                        eng d00aPlausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA0 aPlausible futures of a socialecological system Yahara watershed   c20150 v203 aAgricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km&#178;, population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed&#8217;s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010&#8211;2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.10aalternative futures10aclimate10aecosystem services10aeutrophication10agovernance10alakes10aland-use change10aphosphorus10ascenarios1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aGillon, Sean1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven1 aMase, Amber, S.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aSeifert, Jenny1 aSoylu, Evren1 aTurner, Monica1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.  uhttp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art10/02151nas a2200133   4500008004100000245009000041210006900131300001600200490000800216520171200224100001601936700001901952856004601971       2013                        eng d00aSpatial interactions among ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed0 aSpatial interactions among ecosystem services in an urbanizing a  a12149-121540 v1103 aUnderstanding spatial distributions, synergies, and tradeoffs of multiple ecosystem services (benefits people derive from ecosystems) remains challenging. We analyzed the supply of 10 ecosystem services for 2006 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) Where are areas of high and low supply of individual ecosystem services, and are these areas spatially concordant across services? (ii) Where on the landscape are the strongest tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem services located? (iii) For ecosystem service pairs that experience tradeoffs, what distinguishes locations that are "win-win" exceptions from other locations? Spatial patterns of high supply for multiple ecosystem services often were not coincident; locations where six or more services were produced at high levels (upper 20th percentile) occupied only 3.3% of the landscape. Most relationships among ecosystem services were synergies, but tradeoffs occurred between crop production and water quality. Ecosystem services related to water quality and quantity separated into three different groups, indicating that management to sustain freshwater services along with other ecosystem services will not be simple. Despite overall tradeoffs between crop production and water quality, some locations were positive for both, suggesting that tradeoffs are not inevitable everywhere and might be ameliorated in some locations. Overall, we found that different areas of the landscape supplied different suites of ecosystem services, and their lack of spatial concordance suggests the importance of managing over large areas to sustain multiple ecosystem services.1 aQiu, J., X.1 aTurner, M., G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1310539110