01974nas a2200181   4500008004100000245014600041210006900187520127800256653003301534653002501567653001401592653002701606653002001633653002501653100001801678700002201696856007401718       2022                        eng d00aKnowledge of majority scientific agreement on anthropogenic climate change predicts perceived global risk better than perceived personal risk0 aKnowledge of majority scientific agreement on anthropogenic clim3 aStudies examining climate change risk perceptions rarely differentiate between personal and general risk perceptions. Researchers could come to conflicting conclusions about what variables are important in predicting people's perceptions of risk if they do not differentiate between perceptions of personal and general risk. In this study, we used data from a survey of residents in a Midwestern region of the United States to examine the relationship between two measures of knowledge and perceptions of the risk of climate change at personal and the global (i.e. general) levels. Knowledge of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change significantly predicted perceptions of both types of risks, but was more strongly related to greater risk perceptions at the global level. Knowledge of climate change's impact on regional flooding predicted greater climate change risk perception, and we did not find a difference in its association with risk perception at the global versus the personal level. Understanding how different types of knowledge influence people's perception of climate change risks can foster a better understanding of related decision-making processes and used to support more strategic public education and communication on climate change.10aanthropogenic climate change10acomparative optimism10aKnowledge10apsychological distance10arisk perception10ascientific consensus1 aKohl, Patrice1 aWardropper, Chloe  uhttps://www.tandfonline.com/doi/citedby/10.1080/13669877.2022.202888302551nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245014100055210006900196260001600265300001100281490000800292520173200300653001602032653002302048653002802071653001002099653001002109100002102119700001502140700001202155700001302167700001602180700001802196856007102214       2020                        eng d  a0169-204600aEcological worldview, agricultural or natural resource-based activities, and geography affect perceived importance of ecosystem services0 aEcological worldview agricultural or natural resourcebased activ  c2020/05/01/  a1037680 v1973 aUnderstanding public perceptions of the importance of ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for the development and communication of sustainable management and policies. Yet public perspectives on ES and their sociocultural and geographic patterns are not well understood. This study asks: Which ES are perceived as more or less important by the general public?; Which ES are considered most similar when the public are asked to evaluate the importance of specific water, agricultural and natural resources ES?; And, what individual and geographic factors are associated with perceived importance of different ES? We conducted a survey of residents in an urban and agricultural watershed in the U.S. Upper Midwest (n = 1136). This study asked respondents about a wider range of ES than is typical, and examines how ecological worldviews influence the perceived importance of ES. Respondents rated regional provision of drinking and surface water quality, clean lakes and rivers for wildlife, and a reliable supply of drinking and surface water most important. Those with a stronger ecological worldview tended to rate natural areas and processes as more important and agricultural products as less important than respondents with a more anthropocentric worldview. Perceived importance of various ES was also predicted by other individual-level factors relating to livelihood, outdoor recreation, and proximity to lakes, forests and agriculture. For example, respondents with livelihoods dependent on agriculture rated agricultural products and rural character highly. These findings bolster the case for more context-specific assessments of public importance ratings for environmental benefits to inform planning and management.10aagriculture10aecosystem services10aNew Ecological Paradigm10aUrban10aWater1 aWardropper, C.B.1 aMase, A.S.1 aQiu, J.1 aKohl, P.1 aBooth, E.G.1 aRissman, A.R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461930586901905nas a2200157   4500008004100000020001400041245007000055210006900125260001500194300001300209490000800222520142200230100002601652700002301678856004601701       2019                        eng d  a1573-148000aAdaptations to extreme storm events by conservation organizations0 aAdaptations to extreme storm events by conservation organization  c2019/01/01  a85 - 1010 v1523 aExtreme precipitation events are associated with increased runoff of sediment and nutrients into surface waters, exacerbating water quality problems and creating challenges for soil and water managers. This change in the hydrologic cycle is expected to intensify under future climate change. Soil and water conservation professionals responsible for advising farmers and other land managers are on the front lines of adaptation to these climate change impacts. This study uses a survey of Soil and Water Conservation District staff (n = 260) in the United States Upper Midwest to better understand adaptation planning and implementation and the factors influencing adaptations by public organizations. In contrast to a typical planning-implementation gap finding, our respondents report a greater emphasis on some kinds of adaptation actions over planning. We find that the concerns of individual government employees about climate change have a greater association with adaptation planning strategies (e.g., planning document updates) compared to implemented adaptations on-the-ground (e.g., stream buffer installation). Also, weather projections were being used in conjunction with both adaptation planning and implementation. This study contributes to efforts to open up the black box of adaptation decision-making in the public sector, revealing the important role of individual concerns and information use.1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2342-802804nas a2200325   4500008004100000020001400041245010800055210006900163260001600232300001100248490000800259520183200267653001202099653001302111653001102124653001502135653002602150653001402176100001902190700001302209700002702222700002002249700001902269700001902288700002402307700002302331700002302354700003002377856007102407       2019                        eng d  a0048-969700aComparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios0 aComparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water q  c2019/11/25/  a1334840 v6933 aEutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014–2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.10aclimate10aland use10aManure10aphosphorus10aSurface water quality10aWatershed1 aMotew, Melissa1 aChen, Xi1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aSeifert, Jenny1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aTurner, Monica, G.1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971933404702493nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245012400055210006900179260001600248490000800264520167500272653002301947653003001970653002102000653002602021100001302047700002302060700002002083700002302103700002402126700003002150856007102180       2019                        eng d  a0022-169400aManagement of minimum lake levels and impacts on flood mitigation: A case study of the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA0 aManagement of minimum lake levels and impacts on flood mitigatio  c2019/10/01/0 v5773 aLake level regulation is commonly used to manage water resources and mitigate flood risk in watersheds with linked river–lake systems. In this study, we first assess exposure, in terms of both population and land area, to flooding impacts in the Yahara Watershed’s chain of four lakes in southern Wisconsin as affected by minimum lake level management. A flooding exposure assessment shows that the areas surrounding the upstream lakes, Mendota and Monona, have dense urban areas with high populations that are exposed to flooding; Waubesa has low elevations along its lakeshore, resulting in a large potential flooding area; and the most downstream lake, Kegonsa, has a large area of surrounding cropland that is exposed to flooding but impacts a limited population. We then use a linked modeling framework of a land surface model (Agro-IBIS) and a hydrologic-routing model (THMB) to simulate daily lake level over a study period of 1994–2013 in the Yahara Watershed with different minimum lake level management strategies. Modeling results show that the peak lake levels and corresponding exposed land area and population to flooding will decrease under a lower target minimum lake level. However, at the same time, the number of days that the lake level is below winter minimum will increase, which may adversely affect ecosystem health. In addition, our sensitivity analysis indicates that reducing target minimum lake levels will help mitigate flood risk in terms of both flood magnitude and frequency. Nevertheless, this must be balanced against the need to maintain adequately high lake levels for ecosystem services and recreational functions of the lakes.10aecosystem services10aFlood exposure assessment10aHydrologic model10aLake level management1 aChen, Xi1 aMotew, Melissa, M.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941930640702281nas a2200181   4500008004100000020001400041245008400055210006900139260001500208520169500223100001901918700002301937700001901960700002001979700003001999700002402029856004602053       2019                        eng d  a2398-962900aNonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of ecosystem services0 aNonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of eco  c2019/04/293 aGroundwater is a fundamental control on biophysical processes underpinning essential ecosystem services (ES). However, interactions and feedbacks among groundwater, climate and multiple ES remain less well understood. We investigated groundwater effects on a portfolio of food, water and biogeochemical ES indicators in an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Our results show that food production, water quality and quantity, and flood control are most sensitive to groundwater, with the strongest responses under wet and dry climate extremes. Climate mediates groundwater effects, such that several ES have synergies during dry climate, but trade-offs (groundwater increased some ES but declined others) under wet climate. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in groundwater effects on ES, which is driven primarily by water table depth (WTD) and is also sensitive to soil texture and land cover. Most ES indicators respond nonlinearly to WTD when groundwater is within a critical depth (approximately 2.5 m) of land surface, indicating that small WTD changes can have disproportionately large effects on ES in shallow groundwater areas. Within this critical WTD, increasingly shallow groundwater leads to nonlinear increases in surface flood risk, sediment erosion and phosphorus yield; nonlinear decreases in drainage to the deep vadose zone and thus groundwater recharge; and bidirectional responses of crop and grass production, carbon storage and nitrate leaching. Our study illustrates the complex role of groundwater in affecting multiple ES and highlights that strategically managing groundwater may enhance ES resilience to climate extremes in shallow groundwater settings.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.  uhttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0278-203248nas a2200217   4500008004100000245012300041210006900164260001500233300001400248520249800262653002002760653002302780653002202803653001702825653002202842100002102864700002302885700003002908700002302938856006902961       2019                        eng d00aScale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer0 aScaledependent interactions between tree canopy cover and imperv  c2019/03/20  a2018175613 aCities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer air temperatures, with serious consequences for people. Increased tree cover is suggested as a climate adaptation strategy, but the amount of tree canopy cover needed to counteract higher temperatures associated with impervious surface cover is not known. We used a bicycle-mounted measurement system to quantify the interaction of canopy cover and impervious surface cover on urban air temperature. Daytime air temperature was substantially reduced with greater canopy cover (≥40%) at the scale of a typical city block (60–90 m), especially on the hottest days. However, reducing impervious surfaces remained important for lowering nighttime temperatures. Results can guide strategies for increasing tree cover to mitigate daytime urban heat and improve residents’ well-being.As cities warm and the need for climate adaptation strategies increases, a more detailed understanding of the cooling effects of land cover across a continuum of spatial scales will be necessary to guide management decisions. We asked how tree canopy cover and impervious surface cover interact to influence daytime and nighttime summer air temperature, and how effects vary with the spatial scale at which land-cover data are analyzed (10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-m radii). A bicycle-mounted measurement system was used to sample air temperature every 5 m along 10 transects (∼7 km length, sampled 3–12 times each) spanning a range of impervious and tree canopy cover (0–100%, each) in a midsized city in the Upper Midwest United States. Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 °C (range, 1.1–5.7 °C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60–90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 °C (range, 1.2–3.0 °C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.10aair temperature10aecosystem services10alandscape context10aurban forest10aurban heat island1 aZiter, Carly, D.1 aPedersen, Eric, J.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/19/1817561116.abstract02894nas a2200289   4500008004100000245009500041210006900136260001600205300001200221490000800233520200700241653001302248653001902261653002302280653002002303653001502323653001702338100002302355700001902378700002002397700001302417700001902430700003002449700002702479700002702506856007102533       2018                        eng d00aContinuous separation of land use and climate effects on the past and future water balance0 aContinuous separation of land use and climate effects on the pas  c2018/10/01/  a106-1220 v5653 aUnderstanding the combined and separate effects of climate and land use change on the water cycle is necessary to mitigate negative impacts. However, existing methodologies typically divide data into discrete (before and after) periods, implicitly representing climate and land use as step changes when in reality these changes are often gradual. Here, we introduce a new regression-based methodological framework designed to separate climate and land use effects on any hydrological flux of interest continuously through time, and estimate uncertainty in the contribution of these two drivers. We present two applications in the Yahara River Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) demonstrating how our approach can be used to understand synergistic or antagonistic relationships between land use and climate in either the past or the future: (1) historical streamflow, baseflow, and quickflow in an urbanizing subwatershed; and (2) simulated future evapotranspiration, drainage, and direct runoff from a suite of contrasting climate and land use scenarios for the entire watershed. In the historical analysis, we show that ∼60% of recent streamflow changes can be attributed to climate, with approximately equal contributions from quickflow and baseflow. However, our continuous method reveals that baseflow is significantly increasing through time, primarily due to land use change and potentially influenced by long-term increases in groundwater storage. In the simulation of future changes, we show that all components of the future water balance will respond more strongly to changes in climate than land use, with the largest potential land use effects on drainage. These results indicate that diverse land use change trajectories may counteract each other while the effects of climate are more homogeneous at watershed scales. Therefore, management opportunities to counteract climate change effects will likely be more effective at smaller spatial scales, where land use trajectories are unidirectional.10aBaseflow10aClimate change10aEvapotranspiration10aLand use change10aStreamflow10aUrbanization1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aChen, Xi1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002216941830618802927nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245010000055210007100155260001500226520215400241653001102395653002302406653002302429653002202452653001502474653002202489653003702511653000902548653002102557653001802578100001702596700002302613856003702636       2018                        eng d  a1051-076100aCurrent and historical land use influence soil‐based ecosystem services in an urban landscape0 aCurrent and historical land use influence soil‐based ecosystem s  c2018/03/063 aAbstract Urban landscapes are increasingly recognized as providing important ecosystem services (ES) to their occupants. Yet, urban ES assessments often ignore the complex spatial heterogeneity and land?use history of cities. Soil?based services may be particularly susceptible to land?use legacy effects. We studied indicators of three soil?based ES, carbon storage, water quality regulation, and runoff regulation, in a historically agricultural urban landscape and asked (1) How do ES indicators vary with contemporary land cover and time since development? (2) Do ES indicators vary primarily among land?cover classes, within land?cover classes, or within sites? (3) What is the relative contribution of urban land?cover classes to potential citywide ES provision? We measured biophysical indicators (soil carbon [C], available phosphorus [P], and saturated hydraulic conductivity [Ks]) in 100 sites across five land?cover classes, spanning an ~125?year gradient of time since development within each land?cover class. Potential for ES provision was substantial in urban green spaces, including developed land. Runoff regulation services (high Ks) were highest in forests; water quality regulation (low P) was highest in open spaces and grasslands; and open spaces and developed land (e.g., residential yards) had the highest C storage. In developed land covers, both C and P increased with time since development, indicating effects of historical land?use on contemporary ES and trade?offs between two important ES. Among?site differences accounted for a high proportion of variance in soil properties in forests, grasslands, and open space, while residential areas had high within?site variability, underscoring the leverage city residents have to improve urban ES provision. Developed land covers contributed most ES supply at the citywide scale, even after accounting for potential impacts of impervious surfaces. Considering the full mosaic of urban green space and its history is needed to estimate the kinds and magnitude of ES provided in cities, and to augment regional ES assessments that often ignore or underestimate urban ES supply.10acarbon10aecosystem services10aHistorical ecology10aland‐use change10aphosphorus10arunoff regulation10asaturated hydraulic conductivity10asoil10aUrban ecosystems10aWater quality1 aZiter, Carly1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttps://doi.org/10.1002/eap.168901442nas a2200133   4500008004100000245011000041210006900151260001500220520093800235100002201173700001701195700001901212856007701231       2018                        eng d00aInnovation in Outcomes-Based Water Quality Policy: A Case Study from the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA0 aInnovation in OutcomesBased Water Quality Policy A Case Study fr  c2018/01/013 aThis case examines the risks and opportunities for stakeholders involved in an experimental water quality management program in Wisconsin, USA. This program pays for pounds of pollution reduced through soil conservation practices on farm fields and other high-runoff areas across the landscape—nonpoint sources of pollution—by redirecting funds from the sewerage plant and municipal point sources of pollution. Uncertain monitoring and modeling of pollution sources used for program payments and accountability create perceived and real risks to program participants and the environment, including the threat of regulatory enforcement, lost revenue, and failure to achieve environmental outcomes. On the other hand, in this case study, regulatory flexibility also opened a space for stakeholder dialog and programmatic cooperation that could lead to more adaptive and locally acceptable watershed pollution control in the future.1 aWardropper, Chloe1 aGillon, Sean1 aRissman, Adena  uhttp://cse.ucpress.edu/content/early/2018/08/20/cse.2018.001222.abstract02530nas a2200169   4500008004100000020001400041245009500055210006900150260000900219520196800228100001902196700002002215700002702235700001302262700003002275856005502305       2018                        eng d  a1748-932600aThe synergistic effect of manure supply and extreme precipitation on surface water quality0 asynergistic effect of manure supply and extreme precipitation on  c20183 aOver-enrichment of phosphorus (P) in agroecosystems contributes to eutrophication of surface waters. In the Midwest U.S. and elsewhere, climate change is increasing the frequency of high-intensity precipitation events, which can serve as a primary conduit of P transport. Despite uncertainty in their estimates, process-based watershed models are important tools that help characterize watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry and scale up important mechanisms affecting water quality. Using one such model developed for an agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, we conducted a 2x2 factorial experiment to test the effects of (high/low) terrestrial P supply (PSUP) and (high/low) precipitation intensity (PREC) on surface water quality. Sixty-year simulations were conducted for each of the four runs, with annual results obtained for watershed average P yield and concentration at the field scale (220m x 220m grid cells), P load and concentration at the stream scale, and summertime total P concentration (TP) in Lake Mendota. ANOVA results were generated for the 2x2 factorial design, with PSUP and PREC treated as categorical variables. The results showed a significant, positive interaction (p&lt;0.01) between the two drivers for dissolved P concentration at the field and stream scales, and total P concentration at the field, stream, and lake scales. The synergy in dissolved P was linked to nonlinear dependencies between P stored in manure and the daily runoff to rainfall ratio. The synergistic response of dissolved P loss may have important ecological consequences because dissolved P is highly bioavailable. Overall, the results suggest that high levels of terrestrial P supplied as manure can exacerbate water quality problems in the future as the frequency of high-intensity rainfall events increases with a changing climate. Conversely, lowering terrestrial manure P supply may help improve the resilience of surface water quality to extreme events.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aChen, Xi1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://iopscience.iop.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaade602863nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245008600055210006900141300001400210490000700224520215000231653001302381653002802394653002202422653001802444653001902462653001802481100001902499700002102518700002002539700002302559856003902582       2017                        eng d  a1939-558200aAnnual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of lake water clarity0 aAnnual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of l  a632 - 6430 v273 aUnderstanding how and why lakes vary and respond to different drivers through time and space is needed to understand, predict, and manage freshwater quality in an era of rapidly changing land use and climate. Water clarity regulates many characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and is responsive to watershed features, making it a sentinel of environmental change. However, whether precipitation alters the relative importance of features that influence lake water clarity or the spatial scales at which they operate is unknown. We used a dataset of thousands of north temperate lakes and asked: (1) How does water clarity differ between a very wet versus dry year? (2) Does the relative importance of different watershed features, or the spatial extent at which they are measured, vary between wet and dry years? (3) What lake and watershed characteristics regulate long-term water clarity trends? Among lakes, water clarity was reduced and less variable in the wet year than in the dry year; furthermore, water clarity was reduced much more in high-clarity lakes during the wet year than in low-clarity lakes. Climate, land use/land cover, and lake morphometry explained most variance in clarity among lakes in both years, but the spatial scales at which some features were important differed between the dry and wet years. Watershed percent agriculture was most important in the dry year, whereas riparian zone percent agriculture (around each lake and upstream features) was most important in the wet year. Between 1991 and 2012, water clarity declined in 23% of lakes and increased in only 6% of lakes. Conductance influenced the direction of temporal trend (clarity declined in lakes with low conductance), whereas the proportion of watershed wetlands, catchment-to-lake-area ratio, and lake maximum depth interacted with antecedent precipitation. Many predictors of water clarity, such as lake depth and landscape position, are features that cannot be readily managed. Given trends of increasing precipitation, eliminating riparian zone agriculture or keeping it <10% of area may be an effective option to maintain or improve water clarity.10aland use10aland-water interactions10alandscape ecology10aprecipitation10aremote sensing10aWater quality1 aRose, Kevin, C1 aGreb, Steven, R.1 aDiebel, Matthew1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.147102390nas a2200217   4500008004100000020001400041245011000055210006900165300001200234490000700246520170400253653002201957653002401979653002302003653002102026653002102047653001402068100001902082700002302101856004802124       2017                        eng d  a1573-146400aEffects of non-native Asian earthworm invasion on temperate forest and prairie soils in the Midwestern US0 aEffects of nonnative Asian earthworm invasion on temperate fores  a73 - 880 v193 aEffects of invasive European earthworms in North America have been well documented, but less is known about ecological consequences of exotic Asian earthworm invasion, in particular Asian jumping worms (Amynthas) that are increasingly reported. Most earthworm invasion research has focused on forests; some Amynthas spp. are native to Asian grasslands and may thrive in prairies with unknown effects. We conducted an earthworm-addition mesocosm experiment with before–after control-impact (BACI) design and a complementary field study in southern Wisconsin, USA, in 2014 to investigate effects of a newly discovered invasion of two Asian jumping worms (Amynthas agrestis and Amynthas tokioensis) on forest and prairie litter and soil nutrient pools. In both studies, A. agrestis and A. tokioensis substantially reduced surface litter (84–95 % decline in foliage litter mass) and increased total carbon, total nitrogen, and available phosphorus in the upper 0–5 cm of soils over the 4-month period from July through October. Soil inorganic nitrogen (ammonium– and nitrate–N) concentration increased across soil depths of 0–25 cm, with greater effects on nitrate–N. Dissolved organic carbon concentration also increased, e.g., 71–108 % increase in the mesocosm experiment. Effects were observed in both forest and prairie soils, with stronger effects in forests. Effects were most pronounced late in the growing season when earthworm biomass likely peaked. Depletion of the litter layer and rapid mineralization of nutrients by non-native Asian jumping worms may make ecosystems more susceptible to nutrient losses, and effects may cascade to understory herbs and other soil biota.10aAmynthas agrestis10aAmynthas tokioensis10aAsian jumping worm10aEcosystem change10aNutrient cycling10aWisconsin1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1264-502199nas a2200145   4500008004100000245012700041210006900168260000900237490000700246520167500253100002501928700002401953700003001977856004602007       2017                        eng d00aEffects of Root Distribution and Root Water Compensation on Simulated Water Use in Maize Influenced by Shallow Groundwater0 aEffects of Root Distribution and Root Water Compensation on Simu  c20170 v163 aWe investigated the potential impacts of shallow groundwater, root length density (RLD) distribution, and root water compensation on transpiration and net primary productivity (NPP). An agroecosystem model (AgroIBIS-VSF) that is capable of simulating variably saturated water flow was driven with hourly weather observations in southern Wisconsin over 27 yr for various RLD distributions across a continuum of groundwater depth. The results indicated that the strength of the relationship between groundwater depth and water use in the critical water table depth zone is controlled by the root structure and root water uptake (RWU) strategy. In this zone, transpiration is progressively more sensitive to the groundwater level as roots become shallower. The impact of drought on corn (Zea mays L.) lessens and corn becomes less reliant on compensated RWU capabilities as roots extend deeper. Simulations indicated that the use of the compensated RWU approach results in NPP increases of 38.1 (3.81%), 30.8 (2.74%), and 6.4 (0.55%) g C m-2 yr-1 during the driest years (i.e., when growing season precipitation is below the 30th percentile of the long-term observations) for shallow, intermediate, and deep RLDs, respectively. Moreover, shallow groundwater supported RWU, and corn with a shallow RLD benefited the most from shallow groundwater, with an increase in annual transpiration of 230 mm. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating compensatory RWU and selecting an appropriate and representative RLD for contrasting vegetation types in ecosystem models to simulate a more realistic plant response to variable climate and groundwater depth conditions.1 aSoylu, Mehmet, Evren1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.2136/vzj2017.06.011801829nas a2200145   4500008004100000020001400041245008000055210006900135300001400204520134800218100002701566700002001593700003001613856004001643       2017                        eng d  a1939-559000aExtreme precipitation and phosphorus loads from two agricultural watersheds0 aExtreme precipitation and phosphorus loads from two agricultural  an/a - n/a3 aPhosphorus runoff from agricultural land is a major cause of eutrophication in lakes and reservoirs. Frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are increasing in agricultural regions of the Upper Midwestern U.S., and these increases are projected to continue as climate warms. We quantified the linkage between extreme daily precipitation and extreme daily discharge, phosphorus (P) load, and P concentration for Pheasant Branch and the Yahara River, two tributaries of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, U.S.A. using the generalized Pareto distribution. Although precipitation extremes have increased since 1940, over the shorter period of stream monitoring (1994–2015 for Pheasant Branch and 1991–2015 for Yahara) there is no significant trend in extreme precipitation. Nonetheless a disproportionate number of extreme precipitation events (for example seven of the 11 largest 24-h events since 1901) occurred during the period of stream monitoring. Daily precipitation extremes were associated with extremes in daily discharge and P load. P load return levels increased steeply and almost linearly with precipitation on log-log axes. The trend toward more frequent and intense precipitation extremes will increase P loading and intensify the eutrophication of the lake, unless the excessive P enrichment of the watershed is reversed.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/lno.1076702186nas a2200157   4500008004100000020001400041245011400055210006900169300001400238490000700252520166100259100002101920700001901941700002001960856004801980       2017                        eng d  a1435-062900aFlashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During a Century of Urbanization and Climate Change0 aFlashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During  a601 - 6150 v203 aGlobally, ecosystem services are threatened by increasing urbanization and more variable precipitation patterns driven by climate change. However, how these drivers interact over long-time scales to affect underlying processes remains poorly understood, hindering our ability to predict their long-term consequences. Here, we use long-term data spanning nearly a century to investigate changes in hydrologic attributes for two lakes in the Upper Midwest with urbanizing watersheds. We quantified flashiness—the variability of runoff rate, volume, or stage-level of waterways—to investigate the concurrent impacts of urbanization and climate change on flashiness and flooding potential. Our results indicate that flashiness generally increased for both lakes over the period of 1916–2013, although this overall trend consists of sub-periods of increase and decrease. Increasing impervious surface area has been the stronger driver of flashiness historically; however, our results suggest that the impact of urbanization may reach a threshold, such that saturation effects would cause large magnitude precipitation events to become a relatively stronger driver of flashiness. Increasing flashiness indicates an increase in flooding potential, documented by increases in the 10- and 100-year flood threshold levels as large as 30 cm. Since flashiness is strongly related to the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, the methodology and results presented here provide a unique approach to gain insight into how non-linear interactions between global change drivers, at multiple time scales, impact the simultaneous provision of multiple services.1 aUsinowicz, Jacob1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKamarainen, Amy  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0042-702504nas a2200217   4500008004100000020001400041245009300055210006900148260001100217300001100228520182300239653002802062653002302090653002302113653002002136653002102156100001702177700002102194700002302215856004802238       2017                        eng d  a1572-976100aHow do land-use legacies affect ecosystem services in United States cultural landscapes?0 aHow do landuse legacies affect ecosystem services in United Stat  c2017//  a1 - 143 aLandscape-scale studies of ecosystem services (ES) have increased, but few consider land-use history. Historical land use may be especially important in cultural landscapes, producing legacies that influence ecosystem structure, function, and biota that in turn affect ES supply. Our goal was to generate a conceptual framework for understanding when land-use legacies matter for ES supply in well-studied agricultural,urban, and exurban US landscapes. We synthesized illustrative examples from published literature in which landscape legacies were demonstrated or are likely to inﬂuence ES. We suggest three related conditions in which land-use legacies are important for understanding current ES supply. (1) Intrinsically slow ecological processes govern ES supply, illustrated for soil-based and hydrologic services impaired by slowly processed pollutants. (2) Time lags between land-use change and ecosystem responses delay effects on ES supply, illustrated for biodiversity-based services that may experience an ES debt. (3) Threshold relationships exist, such that changes in ES are difﬁcult to reverse,and legacy lock-in disconnects contemporary landscapes from ES supply, illustrated by hydrologic services. Mismatches between contemporary landscape patterns and mechanisms underpinning ES supply yield unexpected patterns of ES. Today’s land-use decisions will generate tomorrow’s legacies, and ES will be affected if processes underpinning ES are affected by land-use legacies. Research priorities include understanding effects of urban abandonment, new contaminants, and interactions of land-use legacies and climate change. Improved understanding of historical effects will improve management of contemporary ES, and aid in decision-making as new challenges to sustaining cultural landscapes arise.10aAgricultural ecosystems10aExurban ecosystems10aHistorical ecology10aland-use change10aUrban ecosystems1 aZiter, Carly1 aGraves, Rose, A.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0545-402495nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245009100055210006900146260001100215300001100226520172200237100001901959700001301978700002001991700002702011700001802038700002302056700002402079700002202103700001702125700002102142700003002163856004802193       2017                        eng d  a1435-062900aThe Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed0 aInfluence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agri  c2017//  a1 - 153 aDecades of fertilizer and manure applications have led to a buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and sediments, commonly referred to as legacy P. Legacy P can provide a long-term source of P to surface waters where it causes eutrophication. Using a suite of numerical models, we investigated the influence of legacy P on water quality in the Yahara Watershed of southern Wisconsin, USA. The suite included Agro-IBIS, a terrestrial ecosystem model; THMB, a hydrologic and nutrient routing model; and the Yahara Water Quality Model which estimates water quality indicators in the Yahara chain of lakes. Using five alternative scenarios of antecedent P storage (legacy P) in soils and channels under historical climate conditions, we simulated outcomes of P yield from the landscape, lake P loading, and three lake water quality indicators. Legacy P had a significant effect on lake loads and water quality. Across the five scenarios for Lake Mendota, the largest and most upstream lake, average P yield (kg ha−1) varied by −41 to +22%, P load (kg y−1) by −35 to +14%, summer total P (TP) concentration (mg l−1) by −25 to +12%, Secchi depth (m) by −7 to +3%, and the probability of hypereutrophy by −67 to +34%, relative to baseline conditions. The minimum storage scenario showed that a 35% reduction in present-day loads to Lake Mendota corresponded with a 25% reduction in summer TP and smaller reductions in the downstream lakes. Water quality was more vulnerable to heavy rainfall events at higher amounts of P storage and less so at lower amounts. Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with climate change; therefore, water quality could be protected by decreasing P reserves.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aChen, Xi1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aPinkas, Pavel1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.1 aDonner, Simon, D.1 aTsuruta, Kai1 aVadas, Peter, A.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0125-002399nas a2200277   4500008004100000245006300041210006200104260000900166490000700175520157000182653002701752653001501779653002901794653003501823653001601858653001201874653003001886653001801916653001701934100002301951700001901974700002201993700002402015700002602039856005602065       2017                        eng d00aPublic access to spatial data on private-land conservation0 aPublic access to spatial data on privateland conservation  c20170 v223 aInformation is critical for environmental governance. The rise of digital mapping has the potential to advance private-land conservation by assisting with conservation planning, monitoring, evaluation, and accountability. However, privacy concerns from private landowners and the capacity of conservation entities can influence efforts to track spatial data. We examine public access to geospatial data on conserved private lands and the reasons data are available or unavailable. We conduct a qualitative comparative case study based on analysis of maps, documents, and interviews. We compare four conservation programs involving different conservation tools: conservation easements (the growing but incomplete National Conservation Easement Database), regulatory mitigation (gaps in tracking U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service&#8217;s endangered species habitat mitigation), contract payments (lack of spatial data on U.S. Department of Agriculture&#8217;s Conservation Reserve Program due to Farm Bill restrictions), and property-tax incentives (online mapping of Wisconsin&#8217;s managed forest tax program). These cases illuminate the capacity and privacy reasons for current incomplete or inaccessible spatial data and the politics of mapping private land. If geospatial data are to contribute fully to planning, evaluation, and accountability, we recommend improving information system capacity, enhancing learning networks, and reducing legal and administrative barriers to information access, while balancing the right to information and the right to privacy.10aconservation easements10acost share10aEnvironmental governance10aGeographic Information Systems10aland trusts10aprivacy10aprivate-land conservation10atax incentive10atransparency1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aOwley, Jessica1 aL'Roe, Andrew, W.1 aMorris, Amy, Wilson1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.  uhttps://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss2/art24/02409nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245007900055210006900134260001400203300001200217490000700229520164400236653002301880653002501903653003001928653001901958653002301977653002502000100002302025700002202048700002602070856007102096       2017                        eng d  a1462-901100aPublic support for carrot, stick, and no-government water quality policies0 aPublic support for carrot stick and nogovernment water quality p  c2017/10//  a82 - 890 v763 aPublic support for environmental policy provides an important foundation for democratic governance. Numerous policy innovations may improve nonpoint source pollution, but little research has examined which types of individuals are likely to support various runoff reduction policies. We conducted a household mail survey of 1136 residents in southern Wisconsin. In general, residents were more likely to support water quality policies if they were communitarians, egalitarians, concerned about water pollution, and perceived water quality as poor. The majority of respondents somewhat to strongly supported all of the seven proposed water quality policies, but opposed relying on voluntary action without government involvement on farms. Residents had higher support for incentives and market-based approaches (carrot policies) than regulation and taxes (stick policies). A more complicated pattern emerged in within-subject comparisons of residents’ views of carrot and stick approaches. Stick approaches polarized respondents by decreasing support among people with individualistic worldviews, while slightly increasing support among people with communitarian worldviews. Residents with an agricultural occupation were more likely to support voluntary, non-governmental approaches for reducing agricultural runoff, and were also more likely to support regulation for reducing urban lawn runoff. This research highlights the dominant role of cultural worldviews and the secondary roles of water pollution concern, perceived water quality, and self-interest in explaining support for diverse policies to reduce nonpoint source pollution.10aCultural cognition10aEnvironmental policy10aNonpoint source pollution10aPolicy support10aPublic preferences10aWater quality policy1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aKohl, Patrice, A.1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111630740702722nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245016200055210006900217260001500286300001400301490000800315520181200323653002702135653003002162653002502192653003802217653002002255653001702275100002302292700002502315700003002340700002702370856007102397       2017                        eng d  a0304-380000aQuantifying indirect groundwater-mediated effects of urbanization on agroecosystem productivity using MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a complete critical zone model0 aQuantifying indirect groundwatermediated effects of urbanization  c2017/9/10/  a201 - 2190 v3593 aSustainably accommodating future population growth and meeting global food requirements requires understanding feedbacks between ecosystems and belowground hydrological processes. Here, we introduce MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a new dynamic ecosystem model including groundwater flow, and use MAGI to explore the indirect impacts of land use change (urbanization) on landscape-scale agroecosystem productivity (corn yield). We quantify the degree to which urbanization can indirectly impact yield in surrounding areas by changing the amount of groundwater recharge locally and the water table dynamics at landscape scales. We find that urbanization can cause increases or decreases in yield elsewhere, with changes up to approximately +/− 40% under the conditions simulated due entirely to altered groundwater-land surface interactions. Our results indicate that land use change in upland areas has the largest impact on water table depth over the landscape. However, there is a spatial mismatch between areas with the largest water table response to urbanization elsewhere (upland areas) and locations with the strongest yield response to urbanization elsewhere (midslope areas). This mismatch arises from differences in baseline water table depth prior to urbanization. Yield response to urbanization in lowland areas is relatively localized despite large changes to the vertical water balance due to stabilizing ecohydrological feedbacks between root water uptake and lateral groundwater flow. These results demonstrate that hydrological impacts of land use change can propagate through subsurface flow to indirectly impact surrounding ecosystems, and these subsurface connections should be considered when planning land use at a landscape scale to avoid negative outcomes associated with land use change.10aagroecosystem modeling10aDynamic vegetation models10aGroundwater recharge10aGroundwater-land surface coupling10aLand use change10aUrbanization1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aSoylu, Mehmet, Evren1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438001730078902250nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245008000055210006900135260001300204300001400217490000700231520146400238653002401702653002801726653002801754653001501782653001601797653001801813653002801831100002601859700001701885700002301902856007101925       2017                        eng d  a0264-837700aUncertain monitoring and modeling in a watershed nonpoint pollution program0 aUncertain monitoring and modeling in a watershed nonpoint pollut  c2017/9//  a690 - 7010 v673 aPerformance-based programs governing land use rely on environmental measurement, prediction, and assessment. Yet complex, nonlinear social and environmental change can lead to uncertainties in quantification and forecasting and create challenges for operationalizing programs. This research examines the roles that environmental monitoring and modeling uncertainty play in experimental land and water governance through an analysis of a regulatory water quality program in Wisconsin, USA. The case demonstrates how uncertainties in measurement and prediction of pollution runoff shape program design and participant perceptions. We draw on interviews, a survey, participant observation, and policy document analysis to illustrate how regulators and participants (including municipalities, sewerage treatment plants, farmers and nonprofit organizations) perceive and react to uncertainty. Because current and future water quality data are based largely on model estimates, but regulatory compliance will likely be based on measured in-stream outcomes, participants must evaluate potential risks of involvement. Stakeholders have relied on partnership building and legal modifications such as extended compliance timelines to reduce the risks associated with uncertainty. Experimentation under uncertainty led to sustained stakeholder dialogue, and an iterative process of deciding how monitoring and modeling should be used to track and prove program progress.10aAdaptive governance10aExperimental governance10aPerformance measurement10aRegulation10aUncertainty10aWater quality10aWatershed collaboration1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aGillon, Sean1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026483771631204201830nas a2200253   4500008004100000020001400041245006900055210006800124260000900192520107000201653001701271653002001288653003301308653002201341653001801363653002201381653001801403653001701421100002301438700001801461700003001479700002401509856004301533       2017                        eng d  a1944-800700aUrban heat island-induced increases in evapotranspirative demand0 aUrban heat islandinduced increases in evapotranspirative demand  c20173 aAlthough the importance of vegetation in mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) is known, the impacts of UHI-induced changes in micrometeorological conditions on vegetation are not well understood. Here we show that plant water requirements are significantly higher in urban areas compared to rural areas surrounding Madison, WI, driven by increased air temperature with minimal effects of decreased air moisture content. Local increases in impervious cover are strongly associated with increased evapotranspirative demand in a consistent manner across years, with most increases caused by elevated temperatures during the growing season rather than changes in changes in growing season length. Potential evapotranspiration is up to 10% higher due to the UHI, potentially mitigating changes to the water and energy balances caused by urbanization. Our results indicate that local-scale land cover decisions (increases in impervious cover) can significantly impact evapotranspirative demand, with likely implications for water and carbon cycling in urban ecosystems.10aecohydrology10aplant water use10areference evapotranspiration10aurban climatology10aurban ecology10aurban heat island10aUrban systems10aWater supply1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aSchatz, Jason1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL07219003039nas a2200277   4500008004100000020001400041245012200055210006900177260000900246300001200255490000700267520216600274653002002440653001802460653002002478653002002498653002402518653002502542653004202567100002102609700002402630700002202654700002402676700002302700856003802723       2016                        eng d  a1939-558200aAlternative scenarios of bioenergy crop production in an agricultural landscape and implications for bird communities0 aAlternative scenarios of bioenergy crop production in an agricul  c2016  a42 - 540 v263 aIncreased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10%, 20%, or 30% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha ≥ 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will likely benefit grassland bird populations, and bioenergy landscapes could be designed to maximize biodiversity benefits while meeting targets for biomass production.10abioenergy crops10agrass biomass10agrassland birds10aland-use change10alandscape scenarios10arow-crop agriculture10aspecies of greatest conservation need1 aBlank, Peter, J.1 aWilliams, Carol, L.1 aSample, David, W.1 aMeehan, Timothy, D.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-149001800nas a2200193   4500008004100000020001400041245009000055210006900145260000900214300001000223520120000233100002301433700001601456700002401472700001901496700001601515700002701531856004801558       2016                        eng d  a1862-405700aBiodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios0 aBiodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel   c2016  a1 - 53 aWhat does the future hold for the world’s ecosystems and benefits that people obtain from them? While the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has identified the development of scenarios as a key to helping decision makers identify potential impacts of different policy options, it currently lacks a long-term scenario strategy. IPBES will decide how it will approach scenarios at its plenary meeting on 22–28 February 2016, in Kuala Lumpur. IPBES now needs to decide whether it should create new scenarios that better explore ecosystem services and biodiversity dynamics. For IPBES to capture the social-ecological dynamics of biodiversity and ecosystem services, it is essential to engage with the great diversity of local contexts, while also including the global tele-coupling among local places. We present and compare three alternative scenario strategies that IPBES could use and then suggest a bottom-up, cross-scale scenario strategy to improve the policy relevance of future IPBES assessments. We propose five concrete steps as part of an effective, long term scenario development process for IPBES in cooperation with the scientific community.1 aKok, Marcel, T. J.1 aKok, Kasper1 aPeterson, Garry, D.1 aHill, Rosemary1 aAgard, John1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0354-802515nas a2200121   4500008004100000245009200041210007100133300001200204490000800216520210800224100001702332856004402349       2016                        eng d00aThe biodiversity–ecosystem service relationship in urban areas: a quantitative review0 abiodiversity–ecosystem service relationship in urban areas a qua  a761-7680 v1253 aBy 2050, up to 75% of people globally will live in cities. Despite the potential ramifications of this urbanization for ecosystem services (ES), and the importance of locally produced ES for the health and wellbeing of urban residents, syntheses addressing the underlying ecology of ES provision rarely include urban areas. Here, I conduct a quantitative review of urban ES studies in the ecological literature, synthesizing trends across the discipline. I also quantify the extent to which this work considers the organisms and ecosystem components responsible for ES provision using two approaches: assessment of biodiversity–ES relationships, and an adaptation of the service provider concept. The majority of urban ES studies were conducted in western, developed countries, and typically assessed a single service in a single city – largely ignoring ES synergies and tradeoffs, and cross-city comparisons. While several different ES are studied in urban ecosystems, the field is dominated by weather and climate-related regulating services, with assessments of cultural services particularly lacking. Most studies described a habitat type as the service provider; however, studies that considered the biodiversity–ES relationship were more likely to identify a specific functional group, community, or population as the key provider of an ES. The biodiversity–ES relationship itself was most frequently characterized as dependent on the composition of species, functional traits, or structures, rather than correlated with the magnitude of any specific biodiversity metric. While the study of ES in urban ecosystems is increasing, there exists considerable room for further research. Future studies would benefit by expanding the number and categories of ES assessed within and across cities, as well as broadening the geographical scope of urban ES research. Biodiversity–ES assessments in urban ecosystems would also benefit from an expansion of the biodiversity types considered, particularly regarding non-species based approaches, and consideration of non-native and invasive species.1 aZiter, Carly  uhttps://wsc.limnology.wisc.edu/node/14301886nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245010300055210006900158260000900227300001100236490000700247520117000254653001601424653001901440653001201459653002001471653000901491653002201500100002201522700001901544700002901563856005201592       2016                        eng d  a1748-932600aDrought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes0 aDrought effects on US maize and soybean production spatiotempora  c2016  a0940210 v113 aMaximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global foodsecurity needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such asdrought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yielddata to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, andyield is most sensitive to short-term (1–3 month) droughts during critical development periods fromJuly to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13% of overall yield variability,substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central andsoutheastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustratesfine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in cropproduction is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies thatbuffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term cropproductivity.10aagriculture10aClimate change10adrought10afood production10aSPEI10ayield variability1 aZipper, Samuel, C1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aKucharik, Christopher, J  uhttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=9/a=09402102147nas a2200313   4500008004100000020001400041245014100055210006900196300001200265490000700277520113300284653002501417653001901442653002001461653001401481653003001495653001401525100002001539700001901559700002701578700001801605700001301623700003001636700002701666700002301693700002301716700002301739856007101762       2016                        eng d  a1364-815200aFrom qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale0 aFrom qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios Transla  a80 - 970 v853 aScenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.10aBiophysical modeling10aClimate change10aLand use change10ascenarios10aSocial-ecological systems10aWatershed1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aSchatz, Jason1 aChen, Xi1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide1 aMotew, Melissa, M.1 aSeifert, Jenny, M.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136481521630493502046nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245014800055210006900203300001400272490001500286520122900301653002001530653001301550653001601563653002401579653001301603653001701616100002001633700002301653700002701676700003001703856007101733       2016                        eng d  a2212-041600aIs groundwater recharge always serving us well? Water supply provisioning, crop production, and flood attenuation in conflict in Wisconsin, USA0 agroundwater recharge always serving us well Water supply provisi  a153 - 1650 v21, Part A3 aEcosystem service mapping can provide an avenue for making effective land management decisions in a holistic way. However, mapped quantities do not always appropriately represent the ecosystem services that are used by humans. We highlight this issue with a case study of groundwater recharge, water supply, flooding, and agricultural production in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in southern Wisconsin, USA. Groundwater recharge is typically treated as a beneficial ecosystem service or service indicator whose value to humans monotonically increases with the amount of recharge. While appropriate from a water supply perspective, this relationship breaks down when excess groundwater recharge leads to flooding and crop damage. We suggest moving beyond groundwater recharge as a stand-alone ecosystem service, and instead propose that observations and biophysical models should be used to quantify the final service humans receive from groundwater (e.g. reliability of water supply from a municipal well). Integration of such derived, point-based metrics with other ecosystem services that are more easily represented at the landscape scale remains a challenge for regional ecosystem service inventories and analyses.10aCrop production10aFlooding10aGroundwater10aHydrologic services10aRecharge10aWater supply1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221204161630231502342nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245007300055210006900128260000900197520155700206653002101763653002201784653002501806653001701831653002001848100002001868700002101888700002401909700002201933700001901955700002201974700001701996700002302013856004002036       2016                        eng d  a1461-024800aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology0 aHistorical foundations and future directions in macrosystems eco  c20163 aMacrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space–time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are “expanding”, “shrinking”, “speeding up” and “slowing down” ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.10aHierarchy theory10alandscape ecology10amacrosystems ecology10aspace–time10aspatio-temporal1 aRose, Kevin, C.1 aGraves, Rose, A.1 aHansen, Winslow, D.1 aHarvey, Brian, J.1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aWood, Stephen, A.1 aZiter, Carly1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.1271702211nas a2200133   4500008004100000245009300041210006900134260001500203520171800218100002001936700002701956700002501983856006902008       2016                        eng d00aInvasive species triggers a massive loss of ecosystem services through a trophic cascade0 aInvasive species triggers a massive loss of ecosystem services t  c2016/03/213 aDespite growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem services and the economic and ecological harm caused by invasive species, linkages between invasions, changes in ecosystem functioning, and in turn, provisioning of ecosystem services remain poorly documented and poorly understood. We evaluate the economic impacts of an invasion that cascaded through a food web to cause substantial declines in water clarity, a valued ecosystem service. The predatory zooplankton, the spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus), invaded the Laurentian Great Lakes in the 1980s and has subsequently undergone secondary spread to inland lakes, including Lake Mendota (Wisconsin), in 2009. In Lake Mendota, Bythotrephes has reached unparalleled densities compared with in other lakes, decreasing biomass of the grazer Daphnia pulicaria and causing a decline in water clarity of nearly 1 m. Time series modeling revealed that the loss in water clarity, valued at US$140 million (US$640 per household), could be reversed by a 71% reduction in phosphorus loading. A phosphorus reduction of this magnitude is estimated to cost between US$86.5 million and US$163 million (US$430–US$810 per household). Estimates of the economic effects of Great Lakes invasive species may increase considerably if cases of secondary invasions into inland lakes, such as Lake Mendota, are included. Furthermore, such extreme cases of economic damages call for increased investment in the prevention and control of invasive species to better maximize the economic benefits of such programs. Our results highlight the need to more fully incorporate ecosystem services into our analysis of invasive species impacts, management, and public policy.1 aWalsh, Jake, R.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aZanden, Jake, Vander  uhttp://www.pnas.org/content/early/2016/03/16/1600366113.abstract02606nas a2200241   4500008004100000245006900041210006900110260000900179490000700188520184100195653002402036653002502060653003602085653002902121653002202150100002602172700001702198700002002215700002402235700002702259700002302286856005502309       2016                        eng d00aLocal perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development0 aLocal perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development  c20160 v213 aContrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project's scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios&#8217; narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for  creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.10ascenario archetypes10ascenario development10asocial and environmental change10astakeholder perspectives10awatershed futures1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aGillon, Sean1 aMase, Amber, S.1 aMcKinney, Emily, A.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss2/art12/02044nas a2200181   4500008004100000245012700041210006900168260001500237300001600252490000700268520140700275100002601682700002201708700002401730700003001754700002501784856005301809       2016                        eng d00aNitrogen Fertilization Effects on Productivity and Nitrogen Loss in Three Grass-Based Perennial Bioenergy Cropping Systems0 aNitrogen Fertilization Effects on Productivity and Nitrogen Loss  c2016/03/18  ae0151919 - 0 v113 a<p>Nitrogen (N) fertilization can greatly improve plant productivity but needs to be carefully managed to avoid harmful environmental impacts. Nutrient management guidelines aimed at reducing harmful forms of N loss such as nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions and nitrate (NO<sub>3</sub><sup>-</sup>) leaching have been tailored for many cropping systems. The developing bioenergy industry is likely to make use of novel cropping systems, such as polycultures of perennial species, for which we have limited nutrient management experience. We studied how a switchgrass (<italic>Panicum virgatum</italic>) monoculture, a 5-species native grass mixture and an 18-species restored prairie responded to annual fertilizer applications of 56 kg N ha<sup>-1</sup> in a field-scale agronomic trial in south-central Wisconsin over a 2-year period. We observed greater fertilizer-induced N<sub>2</sub>O emissions and sub-rooting zone NO<sub>3</sub><sup>-</sup> concentrations in the switchgrass monoculture than in either polyculture. Fertilization increased aboveground net primary productivity in the polycultures, but not in the switchgrass monoculture. Switchgrass was generally more productive, while the two polycultures did not differ from each other in productivity or N loss. Our results highlight differences between polycultures and a switchgrass monoculture in responding to N fertilization.</p>1 aDuran, Brianna, E. L.1 aDuncan, David, S.1 aOates, Lawrence, G.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aJackson, Randall, D.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.015191902445nas a2200193   4500008004100000020001400041245006500055210006500120260001500185300001600200490000700216520186300223100002502086700002702111700002302138700002202161700002202183856004602205       2016                        eng d  a0013-936X00aReducing Phosphorus to Curb Lake Eutrophication is a Success0 aReducing Phosphorus to Curb Lake Eutrophication is a Success  c2016/09/06  a8923 - 89290 v503 aAs human populations increase and land-use intensifies, toxic and unsightly nuisance blooms of algae are becoming larger and more frequent in freshwater lakes. In most cases, the blooms are predominantly blue-green algae (Cyanobacteria), which are favored by low ratios of nitrogen to phosphorus. In the past half century, aquatic scientists have devoted much effort to understanding the causes of such blooms and how they can be prevented or reduced. Here we review the evidence, finding that numerous long-term studies of lake ecosystems in Europe and North America show that controlling algal blooms and other symptoms of eutrophication depends on reducing inputs of a single nutrient: phosphorus. In contrast, small-scale experiments of short duration, where nutrients are added rather than removed, often give spurious and confusing results that bear little relevance to solving the problem of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes.As human populations increase and land-use intensifies, toxic and unsightly nuisance blooms of algae are becoming larger and more frequent in freshwater lakes. In most cases, the blooms are predominantly blue-green algae (Cyanobacteria), which are favored by low ratios of nitrogen to phosphorus. In the past half century, aquatic scientists have devoted much effort to understanding the causes of such blooms and how they can be prevented or reduced. Here we review the evidence, finding that numerous long-term studies of lake ecosystems in Europe and North America show that controlling algal blooms and other symptoms of eutrophication depends on reducing inputs of a single nutrient: phosphorus. In contrast, small-scale experiments of short duration, where nutrients are added rather than removed, often give spurious and confusing results that bear little relevance to solving the problem of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes.1 aSchindler, David, W.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aChapra, Steven, C.1 aHecky, Robert, E.1 aOrihel, Diane, M.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.6b0220402533nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245013100055210006900186260001500255300001200270490000700282520175400289653003302043653001902076653002902095653002002124653002102144653001802165100001702183700002002200700002302220856004802243       2016                        eng d  a1436-379800aShifting drivers and static baselines in environmental governance: challenges for improving and proving water quality outcomes0 aShifting drivers and static baselines in environmental governanc  c2015/04/04  a759-7750 v163 aUnderstanding the conditions that enable or constrain success in environmental governance is crucial for developing effective interventions and adapting approaches. Efforts to achieve and assess success in environmental quality improvement are often impeded by changes in conditions that drive outcomes but lie outside the scope of intervention and monitoring. We document how long-term changes in land use, agriculture, and climate act as non-stationary, shifting drivers of change that combine to render water quality management interventions less effective and increasingly difficult to assess. Focusing on the Yahara River watershed of south-central Wisconsin, USA, we ask how baselines influence program modeling, monitoring, and evaluation, as well as adaptation in governance approach. Through historical trend, GIS, and policy and qualitative data analyses, we find that changes in long-term land use and precipitation pattern dynamics exert tremendous pressure on water quality outcomes but are not captured in snapshot baseline assessments used in management planning or evaluation. Specifically, agricultural sector change related to the intensification of milk and manure production is increasingly challenging to address through best management practices, and flashier precipitation associated with climate change makes it difficult to achieve goals and establish a causal connection between management interventions and outcomes. Analysis of shifting drivers demonstrates challenges facing environmental governance in the context of climatic and social–ecological change. We suggest that goal setting, program design, and evaluation incorporate new modes of analysis that address slowly changing and external determinants of success.10aAgricultural intensification10aClimate change10aEnvironmental governance10aLand use change10aShifting drivers10aWater quality1 aGillon, Sean1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0787-002754nas a2200289   4500008004100000020001400041245012100055210006900176260001100245300001100256520184900267653002102116653001502137653002402152653002502176653002202201653002102223653002002244653002602264653001402290653002102304100001902325700002602344700002302370700002302393856004802416       2016                        eng d  a1572-976100aSpatial fit between water quality policies and hydrologic ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural landscape0 aSpatial fit between water quality policies and hydrologic ecosys  c2016//  a1 - 173 aContext
Sustaining hydrologic ecosystem services is critical for human wellbeing but challenged by land use for agriculture and urban development. Water policy and management strive to safeguard hydrologic services, yet implementation is often fragmented. Understanding the spatial fit between water polices and hydrologic services is needed to assess the spatial targeting of policy portfolios at landscape scales.
Objectives
We investigated spatial fit between 30 different public water policies and four hydrologic services (surface and groundwater quality, freshwater supply, and flood regulation) in the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA)—a Midwestern landscape that typifies tensions between agriculture, urban development, and freshwater resources.
Methods
Spatial extent of water policy implementation was mapped, and indicators of hydrologic services were quantified for subwatersheds using empirical estimates and validated spatial models.
Results
We found a spatial misfit between the overall spatial implementation of water policy and regions of water quality concern, indicating a need for better targeting. Water quality policies can also be leveraged to protect other hydrologic services such as freshwater supply and flood regulation. Individual policy application areas varied substantially in their spatial congruence with each hydrologic service, indicating that not all services are protected by a single policy and highlighting the need for a broad spectrum of policies to sustain hydrologic services in diverse landscapes. We also identified where future policies could be targeted for improving hydrologic services.
Conclusions
Joint spatial analysis of policies and ecosystem services is effective for assessing spatial aspects of institutional fit, and provides a foundation for guiding future policy efforts.10aFlood regulation10aFreshwater10aGroundwater quality10aGroundwater recharge10alandscape ecology10aPolicy targeting10aSpatial overlap10aSurface-water quality10aWisconsin10aYahara Watershed1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0428-002649nas a2200229   4500008004100000020001400041245011100055210006900166260000900235520192900244653002402173653001102197653001702208653002402225653001902249653002402268653001802292653002202310100001802332700003002350856003902380       2016                        eng d  a1097-008800aUrban heat island effects on growing seasons and heating and cooling degree days in Madison, Wisconsin USA0 aUrban heat island effects on growing seasons and heating and coo  c20163 aUrban areas tend to be warmer than their rural surroundings, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. UHIs are nearly always described in terms of temperature. However, UHIs can also be described using derived climate indices, including growing season length, growing degree days (GDDs), and heating and cooling degree days, which may have more direct ecological and economic significance than temperature alone. To characterize UHI effects on these basic climate parameters, we used over 3 years of continuously collected temperature data from up to 150 locations in and around Madison, Wisconsin, USA, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. Compared to rural areas, Madison's UHI extended the freeze-free season by several weeks each year. However, it only shifted the onset of spring and fall (represented by 10-day moving average temperature crossing seasonal thresholds) by 1 day or less in spring and by a few days to a week in fall. The different effects on freeze dates versus running-mean temperatures were primarily because the UHI could affect temperatures during individual freeze events much more than it could influence regional seasonal temperature trends. Urban effects on the meteorological growing season were nearly always greater in fall than in spring. We hypothesize that this is due to seasonal differences in sub-surface temperatures, with urban and rural areas presumably having more uniform sub-surface temperatures in spring after being frozen throughout the winter, contributing to weaker UHI effects in spring than in fall. In terms of degree days, densely built urban areas averaged 14% (209) more GDDs, 25% (117) more cooling degree days, and 6% (284) fewer heating degree days than rural areas, indicating that the UHI could have significant impacts on energy consumption in Madison.10acooling degree days10aenergy10afreeze dates10agrowing degree days10agrowing season10aheating degree days10aurban climate10aurban heat island1 aSchatz, Jason1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.467502269nas a2200289   4500008004100000020001400041245010100055210006900156260000900225300001100234490000700245520139300252653002701645653001901672653001901691653001801710653001801728653002201746653002501768100002201793700001801815700001801833700002901851700002401880700002301904856005201927       2016                        eng d  a1748-932600aUrban heat island impacts on plant phenology: intra-urban variability and response to land cover0 aUrban heat island impacts on plant phenology intraurban variabil  c2016  a0540230 v113 aDespite documented intra-urban heterogeneity in the urban heat island (UHI) effect, little is knownabout spatial or temporal variability in plant response to the UHI. Using an automated temperaturesensor network in conjunction with Landsat-derived remotely sensed estimates of start/end of thegrowing season, we investigate the impacts of the UHI on plant phenology in the city of Madison WI(USA) for the 2012–2014 growing seasons. Median urban growing season length (GSL) estimated fromtemperature sensors is ∼5 d longer than surrounding rural areas, and UHI impacts on GSL arerelatively consistent from year-to-year. Parks within urban areas experience a subdued expression ofGSL lengthening resulting from interactions between the UHI and a park cool island effect. Acrossall growing seasons, impervious cover in the area surrounding each temperature sensor explains >50%of observed variability in phenology. Comparisons between long-term estimates of annual meanphenological timing, derived from remote sensing, and temperature-based estimates of individualgrowing seasons show no relationship at the individual sensor level. The magnitude of disagreementbetween temperature-based and remotely sensed phenology is a function of impervious and grass coversurrounding the sensor, suggesting that realized GSL is controlled by both local land cover andmicrometeorological conditions.10aland surface phenology10aremote sensing10asensor network10aurban climate10aurban ecology10aurban heat island10avegetation phenology1 aZipper, Samuel, C1 aSchatz, Jason1 aSingh, Aditya1 aKucharik, Christopher, J1 aTownsend, Philip, A1 aLoheide, Steven, P  uhttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=5/a=05402301877nas a2200205   4500008004100000020001400041245013700055210007100192260000900263300001400272520116900286653002101455653002201476653003201498653002701530653003301557100002301590700001701613856004101630       2016                        eng d  a1755-263X00aWhere are Ecology and Biodiversity in Social–Ecological Systems Research? A Review of Research Methods and Applied Recommendations0 aWhere are Ecology and Biodiversity in Social–Ecological Systems   c2016  an/a - n/a3 aUnderstanding social–ecological systems (SES) is critical for effective sustainability and biodiversity conservation initiatives. We systematically reviewed SES research to examine whether and how it integrates ecological and social domains and generates decision-relevant recommendations. We aim to inform SES research methods and improve the relevance of SES research. Of 120 SES articles, two-thirds included an ecological variable while all but one included a social variable. Biodiversity was a less common ecological variable than resource productivity, land cover, and abiotic measures. We found six diverse social–ecological linking methods: modeling (9%), causal loop diagrams (18%), quantitative correlations (8%), separate quantitative measures (13%), indicators (14%), and rich description (37%). Policy recommendations addressing social–ecological dynamics were more likely in articles including both ecological and social variables, suggesting the importance of research approach for policy and practice application. Further integration of ecology and biodiversity is needed to support governance, policy, and management for SES sustainability.10aApplied research10ainterdisciplinary10asocial–ecological systems10asustainability science10asystematic literature review1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aGillon, Sean  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.1225002496nas a2200181   4500008004100000245009000041210006900131520186900200653002902069653003202098653002202130653003002152653002802182653002002210100002302230700001802253856004302271       2015                        eng d00aAccounting for Results: How Conservation Organizations Report Performance Information0 aAccounting for Results How Conservation Organizations Report Per3 aEnvironmental program performance information is in high demand, but little research suggests why conservation organizations differ in reporting performance information. We compared performance measurement and reporting by four private-land conservation organizations: Partners for Fish and Wildlife in the US Fish and Wildlife Service (national government), Forest Stewardship Council—US (national nonprofit organization), Land and Water Conservation Departments (local government), and land trusts (local nonprofit organization). We asked: (1) How did the pattern of performance reporting relationships vary across organizations? (2) Was political conflict among organizations’ principals associated with greater performance information? and (3) Did performance information provide evidence of program effectiveness? Based on our typology of performance information, we found that most organizations reported output measures such as land area or number of contracts, some reported outcome indicators such as adherence to performance standards, but few modeled or measured environmental effects. Local government Land and Water Conservation Departments reported the most types of performance information, while local land trusts reported the fewest. The case studies suggest that governance networks influence the pattern and type of performance reporting, that goal conflict among principles is associated with greater performance information, and that performance information provides unreliable causal evidence of program effectiveness. Challenging simple prescriptions to generate more data as evidence, this analysis suggests (1) complex institutional and political contexts for environmental program performance and (2) the need to supplement performance measures with in-depth evaluations that can provide causal inferences about program effectiveness.10aEnvironmental governance10aEvidence-based conservation10aLand conservation10aMonitoring and evaluation10aPerformance measurement10aPolicy outcomes1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aSmail, Robert  uhttps://wsc.limnology.wisc.edu/node/8800766nas a2200265   4500008004100000245005800041210005800099260001500157300001600172490000800188100001700196700001600213700002200229700001400251700001800265700001700283700001900300700001500319700002700334700002000361700002000381700002600401700001500427856005800442       2015                        eng d00aCreating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems0 aCreating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems  c2015/03/20  a1317 - 13190 v3471 aScheffer, M.1 aBarrett, S.1 aCarpenter, S., R.1 aFolke, C.1 aGreen, A., J.1 aHolmgren, M.1 aHughes, T., P.1 aKosten, S.1 avan de Leemput, I., A.1 aNepstad, D., C.1 avan Nes, E., H.1 aPeeters, E., T. H. M.1 aWalker, B.  uhttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6228/1317.short02238nas a2200205   4500008004100000020001400041245012700055210006900182300001200251490000800263520151400271653002901785653002601814653002801840653002601868100002601894700001801920700002301938856007101961       2015                        eng d  a0169-204600aFragmented water quality governance: Constraints to spatial targeting for nutrient reduction in a Midwestern USA watershed0 aFragmented water quality governance Constraints to spatial targe  a64 - 750 v1373 aSpatially targeted interventions improve the effectiveness of environmental policy, but are challenged by implementation constraints and coordination among governments. Spatial targeting research rarely acknowledges the diversity of actors navigating complicated institutional dynamics to deploy environmental policy instruments. We mapped 35 nutrient reduction interventions by federal, state, county, and municipal governments and interviewed 15 policymakers and agency staff in Wisconsin's Yahara Watershed, USA to understand how multilevel governance impacts spatial targeting and implementation of water quality policy. Our Geographic Information System database showed that county governments implemented the most policies, while the state promulgated the most rules, with uneven application of policy interventions across the landscape. Spatial targeting differed between agricultural and non-agricultural policies and by type of tool (land acquisition, direct management, incentive, and regulation). We found a negative correlation between areas of policy intervention and phosphorus yield across government levels (p < 0.001), with the strongest negative correlations by implementing agency. Interviews revealed that for government agencies, spatial targeting is constrained by program and funding requirements and data limitations for soil and land use practices. In order to target the highest phosphorus yielding subwatersheds, governments will need to alter the spatial location of their efforts.10aMidwestern USA watershed10aMultilevel governance10aSpatial policy analysis10aSurface water quality1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.1 aChang, Chaoyi1 aRissman, Adena, R.  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920461400309002998nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245009000055210006900145260000900214300001600223490000700239520222300246653001802469653002502487653002202512653002202534653000802556653001802564653002902582653002102611653001802632653002302650100001902673856004002692       2015                        eng d  a1466-823800aA global synthesis of the effects of biological invasions on greenhouse gas emissions0 aglobal synthesis of the effects of biological invasions on green  c2015  a1351 - 13620 v243 aEvidence is mounting that biological invasions profoundly alter the capacity of ecosystems to regulate or mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions – a crucial ecosystem service in a changing climate. However, the growing literature has revealed different, even contradictory results and the general pattern over large spatial scales remains obscure. This study synthesizes the effects of invasions by different alien taxa on major GHG emissions.LocationGlobal.MethodsA structured meta-analysis of 68 case studies was performed to determine the generality of the effects of biological invasions on emissions of three GHGs and assess the extent to which the heterogeneity of effects can be explained by recipient ecosystems, invasive taxa, functional traits, climate and methodological aspects.ResultsInvasive alien species increased N2O emissions but promoted carbon sequestration. Effects on CH4 emissions remained inconclusive. Given the general trends, effects differed by ecosystems, with greater N2O emissions in invaded forest and higher increase in carbon stock in invaded grassland. Invasive taxa also mediated the effects of invasions: invasive plants enhanced carbon storage whereas animal invaders consistently showed negative effects. Focusing on exotic plant invasions, N-fixing species caused greater N2O emissions than non-N-fixing species, and for carbon stock, N-fixing and woody plants exerted stronger positive effects than non-N-fixing and herbaceous plants, respectively. Moreover, climatic factors explained the variation in effects of exotic plant invasions but not those of animal invasions. The effects of plant invasions on carbon content varied nonlinearly with climate, with more pronounced effects where temperature and precipitation were extremely high or low.Main conclusionsThis meta-analysis reveals the overall magnitude and direction of the effects of biological invasions on major GHG emissions, demonstrates that the effects vary substantially by GHGs, biological and environmental factors and proposes avenues for future research. These results highlight the importance of considering species traits and local and climatic conditions in assessing and managing biological invaders.10aAlien species10acarbon sequestration10aclimate condition10aecosystem service10aGHG10aglobal change10aglobal warming potential10ainvasion ecology10ameta-analysis10anon-native species1 aQiu, Jiangxiao  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1111/geb.1236005826nas a2200265   4500008004100000020001400041245011500055210006900170260001500239300001100254490000600265520501900271653002705290653002005317653002205337653001705359653002605376653002605402653001905428653001405447653001405461100001905475700002305494856004305517       2015                        eng d  a2150-892500aImportance of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic ecosystem services in an agricultural watershed0 aImportance of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic e  c2015/11/01  aart2290 v63 aThe sustainability of hydrologic ecosystem services (freshwater benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystems) is challenged by human modification of landscapes. However, the role of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic services at scales relevant to landscape management decisions is poorly understood. In particular, the relative importance of landscape composition (type and proportion of land cover) and configuration (spatial arrangement of cover types) is unclear. We analyzed indicators of production of three hydrologic services (freshwater supply, surface and ground water quality) in 100 subwatersheds in an urbanizing agricultural landscape (Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA) and asked: (1) How do landscape composition and configuration affect supply of hydrologic services (i.e., does spatial pattern matter)? (2) Are there opportunities for small changes in landscape pattern to produce large gains in hydrologic services? Landscape composition and configuration both affected supply of hydrologic services, but composition was consistently more important than configuration for all three services. Together landscape composition and configuration explained more variation in indicators of surface-water quality than in freshwater supply or groundwater quality (Nagelkerke/adjusted R2: 86%, 64%, and 39%, respectively). Surface-water quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and positively correlated with percent forest, grassland and wetland. In addition, surface-water quality was greater in subwatersheds with higher wetland patch density, disaggregated forest patches and lower contagion. Surface-water quality responded nonlinearly to percent cropland and wetland, with greater water quality where cropland covered below 60% and/or wetland above 6% of the subwatershed. Freshwater supply was negatively correlated with percent wetland and urban cover, and positively correlated with urban edge density. Groundwater quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and grassland, and configuration variables were unimportant. Collectively, our study suggests that altering spatial arrangement of land cover will not be sufficient to enhance hydrologic services in an agricultural landscape. Rather, the relative abundance of land cover may need to change to improve hydrologic services. Targeting subwatersheds near the cropland or wetland thresholds may offer local opportunities to enhance surface-water quality with minimal land-cover change.The sustainability of hydrologic ecosystem services (freshwater benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystems) is challenged by human modification of landscapes. However, the role of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic services at scales relevant to landscape management decisions is poorly understood. In particular, the relative importance of landscape composition (type and proportion of land cover) and configuration (spatial arrangement of cover types) is unclear. We analyzed indicators of production of three hydrologic services (freshwater supply, surface and ground water quality) in 100 subwatersheds in an urbanizing agricultural landscape (Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA) and asked: (1) How do landscape composition and configuration affect supply of hydrologic services (i.e., does spatial pattern matter)? (2) Are there opportunities for small changes in landscape pattern to produce large gains in hydrologic services? Landscape composition and configuration both affected supply of hydrologic services, but composition was consistently more important than configuration for all three services. Together landscape composition and configuration explained more variation in indicators of surface-water quality than in freshwater supply or groundwater quality (Nagelkerke/adjusted R2: 86%, 64%, and 39%, respectively). Surface-water quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and positively correlated with percent forest, grassland and wetland. In addition, surface-water quality was greater in subwatersheds with higher wetland patch density, disaggregated forest patches and lower contagion. Surface-water quality responded nonlinearly to percent cropland and wetland, with greater water quality where cropland covered below 60% and/or wetland above 6% of the subwatershed. Freshwater supply was negatively correlated with percent wetland and urban cover, and positively correlated with urban edge density. Groundwater quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and grassland, and configuration variables were unimportant. Collectively, our study suggests that altering spatial arrangement of land cover will not be sufficient to enhance hydrologic services in an agricultural landscape. Rather, the relative abundance of land cover may need to change to improve hydrologic services. Targeting subwatersheds near the cropland or wetland thresholds may offer local opportunities to enhance surface-water quality with minimal land-cover change.10aagricultural landscape10aland management10alandscape ecology10anonlinearity10aspatial configuration10aSpatial heterogeneity10asustainability10asynergies10atradeoffs1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aTurner, Monica, G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00312.101818nas a2200325   4500008004100000245007300041210006900114260001500183490000800198520083700206100001801043700002601061700002201087700002301109700001701132700002301149700002001172700002701192700001801219700002401237700001601261700001901277700001701296700002301313700002201336700002901358700002001387700002101407856006401428       2015                        eng d00aPlanetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet0 aPlanetary boundaries Guiding human development on a changing pla  c2015/02/130 v3473 aThe planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries—climate change and biosphere integrity—have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.1 aSteffen, Will1 aRichardson, Katherine1 aRockström, Johan1 aCornell, Sarah, E.1 aFetzer, Ingo1 aBennett, Elena, M.1 aBiggs, Reinette1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 ade Vries, Wim1 ade Wit, Cynthia, A.1 aFolke, Carl1 aGerten, Dieter1 aHeinke, Jens1 aMace, Georgina, M.1 aPersson, Linn, M.1 aRamanathan, Veerabhadran1 aReyers, Belinda1 aSörlin, Sverker  uhttp://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.abstract02498nas a2200373   4500008004100000245008600041210006900127260000900196490000700205520142900212653002401641653001201665653002301677653001901700653001501719653001001734653002001744653001501764653001401779100002701793700002001820700001701840700003001857700002001887700002001907700001901927700001901946700002301965700001901988700001702007700001902024700002602043856005502069       2015                        eng d00aPlausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA0 aPlausible futures of a socialecological system Yahara watershed   c20150 v203 aAgricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km&#178;, population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed&#8217;s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010&#8211;2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.10aalternative futures10aclimate10aecosystem services10aeutrophication10agovernance10alakes10aland-use change10aphosphorus10ascenarios1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aGillon, Sean1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aLoheide, Steven1 aMase, Amber, S.1 aMotew, Melissa1 aQiu, Jiangxiao1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aSeifert, Jenny1 aSoylu, Evren1 aTurner, Monica1 aWardropper, Chloe, B.  uhttp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art10/01781nas a2200121   4500008004100000245006100041210005800102490000800160520139600168100002301564700002701587856004501614       2015                        eng d00aProgress on Nonpoint Pollution: Barriers & Opportunities0 aProgress on Nonpoint Pollution Barriers Opportunities0 v1443 aNonpoint source pollution is the runoff of pollutants (including soil and nutrients) from agricultural, urban, and other lands (as opposed to point-source pollution, which comes directly from one outlet). Many efforts have been made to combat both types of pollution, so why are we making so little progress in improving water quality by reducing runoff of soil and nutrients into lakes and rivers? This essay examines the challenges inherent in: 1) producing science to predict and assess nonpoint management and policy effectiveness; and 2) using science for management and policy-making. Barriers to demonstrating causality include few experimental designs, different spatial scales for behaviors and measured outcomes, and lags between when policies are enacted and when their effects are seen. Primary obstacles to using science as evidence in nonpoint policy include disagreements about values and preferences, disputes over validity of assumptions, and institutional barriers to reconciling the supply and demand for science. We will illustrate some of these challenges and present possible solutions using examples from the Yahara Watershed in Wisconsin. Overcoming the barriers to nonpoint-pollution prevention may require policy-makers to gain a better understanding of existing scientific knowledge and act to protect public values in the face of remaining scientific uncertainty.1 aRissman, Adena, R.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R.  uhttp://www.mitpressjournals.org/loi/daed02622nas a2200277   4500008004100000020001400041245011400055210006900169260001200238520171500250653003001965653002401995653002302019653003102042653002702073653001702100653001402117653002602131653003602157653001602193100002302209700002502232700002002257700002402277856004302301       2015                        eng d  a1944-797300aUntangling the effects of shallow groundwater and soil texture as drivers of subfield-scale yield variability0 aUntangling the effects of shallow groundwater and soil texture a  c07/20153 aWater table depth (WTD), soil texture, and growing season weather conditions all play critical roles in determining agricultural yield; however, the interactions among these three variables have never been explored in a systematic way. Using a combination of field observations and biophysical modeling, we answer two questions: (1) under what conditions can a shallow water table provide a groundwater yield subsidy and/or penalty to corn production?; and, (2) how do soil texture and growing season weather conditions influence the relationship between WTD and corn yield? Subfield-scale yield patterns during a dry (2012) and wet (2013) growing season are used to identify sensitivity to weather. Areas of the field that are negatively impacted by wet growing seasons have the shallowest observed WTD (< 1 m), while areas with consistently strong yield have intermediate WTD (1-3 m). Parts of the field that perform consistently poorly are characterized by deep WTD (> 3 m) and coarse soil textures. Modeling results find that beneficial impacts of shallow groundwater are more common than negative impacts under the conditions studied, and that the optimum WTD is shallower in coarser soils. While groundwater yield subsidies have a higher frequency and magnitude in coarse-grained soils, the optimum WTD responds to growing season weather at a relatively constant rate across soil types. We conclude that soil texture defines a baseline upon which WTD and weather interact to determine overall yield. Our work has implications for water resource management, climate/land use change impacts on agricultural production, and precision agriculture. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.10a0402 Agricultural systems10a0486 Soils/pedology10a1813 Eco-hydrology10a1829 Groundwater hydrology10aagroecosystem modeling10aAgroIBIS-VSF10aHydrus-1D10aPrecision agriculture10asoil-plant-atmosphere continuum10awater table1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aSoylu, Mehmet, Evren1 aBooth, Eric, G.1 aLoheide, Steven, P.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015WR01752202245nas a2200157   4500008004100000020001400041245007700055210006900132260000900201300001100210490000700221520175900228100001801987700003002005856005202035       2015                        eng d  a1748-932600aUrban climate effects on extreme temperatures in Madison, Wisconsin, USA0 aUrban climate effects on extreme temperatures in Madison Wiscons  c2015  a0940240 v103 aAs climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, cities and their urban heatisland (UHI) effects are growing, as are the urban populations encountering them. These mutuallyreinforcing trends present a growing risk for urban populations. However, we have limitedunderstanding of urban climates during extreme temperature episodes, when additional heat from theUHI may be most consequential. We observed a historically hot summer and historically cold winterusing an array of up to 150 temperature and relative humidity sensors in and around Madison,Wisconsin, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape ofagriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In the summer of 2012 (third hottest since 1869),Madison’s urban areas experienced up to twice as many hours ⩾32.2 °C (90 °F), mean July T MAX up to1.8 °C higher, and mean July T MIN up to 5.3 °C higher than rural areas. During a record settingheat wave, dense urban areas spent over four consecutive nights above the National Weather Servicenighttime heat stress threshold of 26.7 °C (80 °F), while rural areas fell below 26.7 °C nearlyevery night. In the winter of 2013–14 (coldest in 35 years), Madison’s most densely built urbanareas experienced up to 40% fewer hours ⩽−17.8 °C (0 °F), mean January T MAX up to 1 °C higher, andmean January T MIN up to 3 °C higher than rural areas. Spatially, the UHI tended to be most intensein areas with higher population densities. Temporally, both daytime and nighttime UHIs tended to beslightly more intense during more-extreme heat days compared to average summer days. These resultshelp us understand the climates for which cities must prepare in a warming, urbanizing world.1 aSchatz, Jason1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=9/a=09402402700nas a2200157   4500008004100000245011500041210006900156260001500225300001600240490000700256520216200263100002302425700003002448700002102478856004302499       2015                        eng d00aUsing a Simple Apparatus to Measure Direct and Diffuse Photosynthetically Active Radiation at Remote Locations0 aUsing a Simple Apparatus to Measure Direct and Diffuse Photosynt  c2015/02/10  ae0115633 - 0 v103 aPlant canopy interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) drives carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), water and energy cycling in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Quantifying intercepted PAR requires accurate measurements of total incident PAR above canopies and direct beam and diffuse PAR components. While some regional data sets include these data, e.g. from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program sites, they are not often applicable to local research sites because of the variable nature (spatial and temporal) of environmental variables that influence incoming PAR. Currently available instrumentation that measures diffuse and direct beam radiation separately can be cost prohibitive and require frequent adjustments. Alternatively, generalized empirical relationships that relate atmospheric variables and radiation components can be used but require assumptions that increase the potential for error. Our goal here was to construct and test a cheaper, highly portable instrument alternative that could be used at remote field sites to measure total, diffuse and direct beam PAR for extended time periods without supervision. The apparatus tested here uses a fabricated, solar powered rotating shadowband and other commercially available parts to collect continuous hourly PAR data. Measurements of total incident PAR had nearly a one-to-one relationship with total incident radiation measurements taken at the same research site by an unobstructed point quantum sensor. Additionally, measurements of diffuse PAR compared favorably with modeled estimates from previously published data, but displayed significant differences that were attributed to the important influence of rapidly changing local environmental conditions. The cost of the system is about 50% less than comparable commercially available systems that require periodic, but not continual adjustments. Overall, the data produced using this apparatus indicates that this instrumentation has the potential to support ecological research via a relatively inexpensive method to collect continuous measurements of total, direct beam and diffuse PAR in remote locations.1 aCruse, Michael, J.1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.1 aNorman, John, M.  uhttps://wsc.limnology.wisc.edu/node/9601983nas a2200217   4500008004100000020001400041245008300055210006900138260001500207300000800222520131800230653002401548653000901572653002001581653001801601100002601619700001901645700002901664700002401693856004801717       2014                        eng d  a1015-162100aExtreme daily loads: role in annual phosphorus input to a north temperate lake0 aExtreme daily loads role in annual phosphorus input to a north t  c2014/08/02  a1-93 aChanges in fertilizer use, manure management or precipitation may alter the frequency of episodes of high nutrient runoff and thereby affect annual nutrient loads and total nutrient concentrations of lakes. We developed an empirical, stochastic model for daily P loads and used the model to project annual P loads and summer total P concentrations in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA. Daily P loads (8,250 daily observations) were fit closely by a three-part gamma distribution composed of days with low, intermediate, and high P loads. High P load days happen when heavy rains or snowmelt occur on soil with abundant P, often as a result of manure or inorganic fertilizer application. In Lake Mendota, on average 29 days per year accounted for 74 % of the annual load. Simulations showed that median annual P loads increased linearly with the frequency of high P load days. However, the upper quantiles of the annual P load distribution increased more steeply than the median. Increases in the number of high P load days per year also increased summer concentrations of P in the lake. Thus increases in the frequency of high P load days due to larger precipitation events or increased application of fertilizers and manure may worsen widespread problems caused by P pollution of lakes in this agricultural watershed.10aDaily load extremes10aLake10aPhosphorus load10aWater quality1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R1 aBooth, Eric, G1 aKucharik, Christopher, J1 aLathrop, Richard, C  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00027-014-0364-503204nas a2200157   4500008004100000022001400041245014800055210006900203300001200272490000800284520264100292100001802933700002102951700002002972856005402992       2014                        eng d  a0168-192300aInfluence of groundwater on plant water use and productivity: Development of an integrated ecosystem - Variably saturated soil water flow model0 aInfluence of groundwater on plant water use and productivity Dev  a198-2100 v1893 aPlant physiology influences the energy and water balance of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. However, impacts of soil water dynamics on plants in shallow groundwater environments are not completely understood, partially due to the limited ability of current models to simulate groundwater vegetation interactions. In this study, we analyzed the influence of groundwater-induced soil temperature change on plant phenology, and the impact of variable depth to the water table on the net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration and stomatal response, by integrating an advanced dynamic agroecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) and a variably saturated soil water flow model (Hydrus-1D) into a single framework. The model is first evaluated using field observations of soil moisture and temperature as well as annual NPP and weekly LAI measurements collected from three replicated maize plots at the Arlington Agricultural Research Station near Arlington, Wisconsin, USA. Comparisons showed reasonable agreement for each dataset without site-specific prior calibration. We then simulated the influence of groundwater on plant physiological responses as well as the energy, carbon, and water balance at the land surface. The model sensitivity analyses indicated that physiological functions of plants are sensitive to water table depth, and the aridity of a particular production site. For example, shallow groundwater limits water stress during dry years, helping to mitigate decreased NPP associated with water deficits. However, if the water table is persistently too close to the surface during the growing season, photosynthesis is negatively affected through oxygen stress on roots regardless of the aridity. To further explore factors influencing plant physiology other than oxygen stress, we designed simulations without oxygen stress effects. Results showed that under shallow groundwater conditions: (1) higher leaf level relative humidity causes higher water use efficiency because of a lower vapor pressure deficit between the leaf and atmosphere: (2) due to delayed corn plant emergence caused by cooler springtime soil temperatures reduces NPP. Our results suggest that models designed to more mechanistically simulate groundwater vegetation interactions may lead to a more realistic representation of feedbacks between plant phenology, soil moisture, temperature, anoxia, NPP and ET. However, until critical data are collected to assess simulated feedbacks and advance our understanding of groundwater vegetation interactions, model confidence will likely remain somewhat limited. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.1 aSoylu, M., E.1 aKucharik, C., J.1 aLoheide, S., P.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.01901789nas a2200145   4500008004100000020001400041245012200055210006900177300001200246490000700258520128800265100002201553700002001575856004801595       2014                        eng d  a1015-162100aPhosphorus loading, transport and concentrations in a lake chain: a probabilistic model to compare management options0 aPhosphorus loading transport and concentrations in a lake chain   a145-1540 v763 aPhosphorus (P) loading, exports and concentrations of the four lakes of the Yahara chain (Wisconsin, USA) were compared under four load-reduction plans using a model calibrated with 29-33 years of annual data. P mitigation goals must balance reductions in P concentrations in the four lakes and the export from the lake chain to downstream waters. Lake Mendota, the uppermost lake, is most responsive to P load reductions, and benefits diminish downstream. Nonetheless, the greatest reductions in export from the lake chain to downstream waters derive from P load reductions to lakes lower in the chain. The effective grazer Daphnia pulicaria causes large improvements in water quality. Management to maintain populations of D. pulicaria has substantial benefits that augment those from reductions in P loading. Model projections show high variability in water quality and exports under all load-reduction plans. This variability is driven by inter-annual variation in runoff. Thus lake managers and the public should expect ongoing year-to-year variability in water quality, even though P load mitigation will improve water quality on average. Because of high variability from year to year, ongoing monitoring is essential to assess the effects of management of this chain of lakes.1 aCarpenter, S., R.1 aLathrop, R., C.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00027-013-0324-502216nas a2200169   4500008004100000020001400041245009300055210006900148260000800217490000600225520168800231100001801919700001801937700002201955700001801977856005101995       2014                        eng d  a1932-620300aRegime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence Ahead for Food Security0 aRegime Shift in Fertilizer Commodities Indicates More Turbulence  cMay0 v93 aRecent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution'' has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate-and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.1 aElser, J., J.1 aElser, T., J.1 aCarpenter, S., R.1 aBrock, W., A.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.009399803464nas a2200157   4500008004100000020001400041245007000055210006900125260001500194300001600209490000700225520297900232100001803211700003003229856004703259       2014                        eng d  a1558-842400aSeasonality of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Madison, Wisconsin0 aSeasonality of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Madison Wisconsin  c2014/10/01  a2371 - 23860 v533 aAbstractSpatial and temporal variation in the urban heat island (UHI) effect from March 2012 through October 2013 was characterized using continuous temperature measurements from an array of up to 151 fixed sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 407 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. Spatially, the density of the built environment was the primary driver of temperature patterns, with local modifying effects of lake proximity and topographic relief. Temporally, wind speed, cloud cover, relative humidity, soil moisture, and snow all influenced UHI intensity, although the magnitude and significance of their effects varied by season and time of day. Seasonally, UHI intensities tended to be higher during the warmer summer months and lower during the colder months. Seasonal trends in monthly average wind speed and cloud cover tracked annual trends in UHI intensity, with clearer, calmer conditions that are conducive to the stronger UHIs being more common during the summer. However, clear, calm summer nights still had higher UHI intensities than clear, calm winter nights, indicating that some background factor, such as vegetation, shifted baseline UHI intensities throughout the year. The authors propose that regional vegetation and snow-cover conditions set seasonal baselines for UHI intensity and that factors like wind and clouds modified daily UHI intensity around that baseline.AbstractSpatial and temporal variation in the urban heat island (UHI) effect from March 2012 through October 2013 was characterized using continuous temperature measurements from an array of up to 151 fixed sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 407 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. Spatially, the density of the built environment was the primary driver of temperature patterns, with local modifying effects of lake proximity and topographic relief. Temporally, wind speed, cloud cover, relative humidity, soil moisture, and snow all influenced UHI intensity, although the magnitude and significance of their effects varied by season and time of day. Seasonally, UHI intensities tended to be higher during the warmer summer months and lower during the colder months. Seasonal trends in monthly average wind speed and cloud cover tracked annual trends in UHI intensity, with clearer, calmer conditions that are conducive to the stronger UHIs being more common during the summer. However, clear, calm summer nights still had higher UHI intensities than clear, calm winter nights, indicating that some background factor, such as vegetation, shifted baseline UHI intensities throughout the year. The authors propose that regional vegetation and snow-cover conditions set seasonal baselines for UHI intensity and that factors like wind and clouds modified daily UHI intensity around that baseline.1 aSchatz, Jason1 aKucharik, Christopher, J.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0107.102747nas a2200241   4500008004100000020001400041245013800055210006900193260000900262300001100271490000800282520193800290653002102228653001902249653002302268653002602291653002602317653002002343653002102363100002302384700002702407856007102434       2014                        eng d  a0168-192300aUsing evapotranspiration to assess drought sensitivity on a subfield scale with HRMET, a high resolution surface energy balance model0 aUsing evapotranspiration to assess drought sensitivity on a subf  c2014  a91-1020 v1973 aAbstract Evapotranspiration (ET) rates provide a valuable within-season indicator of plant productivity, as well as data on fluxes of water in a landscape. Applying remote sensing for ET estimation has potential to improve the sustainable management of water resources in agricultural settings. Most current ET models, however, rely on ‘dry’ and ‘wet’ pixels within a given scene to partition turbulent fluxes between latent and sensible heat, thus limiting their ability to map ET throughout the growing season at extremely high (meter scale) spatial resolutions. Here, we develop a field-validated surface energy balance model, High Resolution Mapping of EvapoTranspiration (HRMET), which requires only basic meteorological data, spatial surface temperature and canopy structure data. We use HRMET to estimate ET rates over two commercial cornfields in south-central Wisconsin during the 2012 growing season, which was characterized by severe drought. HRMET results indicate that the magnitude of within-field variability in ET rates was primarily driven by water availability. The application of remotely sensed data to precision agriculture has also been hampered by turnaround time between image acquisition and availability. We introduce relative ET (ETR), which enables comparison of ET rates between image dates by normalizing for variability caused by weather and crop stage. ETR also provides an intuitive, index-like metric for evaluating spatial variability in ET on a subfield scale. ETR maps illuminate persistent patterns in ET across measurement dates that may be driven by soil water availability and topography. ETR is used to develop a novel paired-image technique that can map subfield sensitivity classes to stressors such as drought. Sensitivity class mapping can be used to circumvent issues related to turnaround time to facilitate the incorporation of remotely sensed data into precision agriculture.10aDrought response10aEnergy balance10aEvapotranspiration10aPrecision agriculture10aSpatial heterogeneity10aThermal imagery10aYield monitoring1 aZipper, Samuel, C.1 aII, Steven, P. Loheide  uhttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016819231400151802025nas a2200145   4500008004100000022001400041245012000055210006900175300000900244490000600253520153700259100002001796700002201816856004101838       2014                        eng d  a2044-204100aWater quality implications from three decades of phosphorus loads and trophic dynamics in the Yahara chain of lakes0 aWater quality implications from three decades of phosphorus load  a1-140 v43 aTrophic responses to phosphorus (P) loads spanning 29-33 years were assessed for the eutrophic Yahara chain of lakes: Mendota (area = 39.6 km(2), mean depth = 12.7 m, flushing rate = 0.23 yr(-1)); Monona (13.7 km(2), 8.3 m, 1.3 yr(-1)); Waubesa (8.5 km(2), 4.7 m, 4.3 yr(-1)); and Kegonsa (13.0 km(2), 5.1 m, 3.0 yr(-1)). During extended drought periods with low P loads, summer (Jul-Aug) total P (TP) concentrations declined substantially in all 4 lakes, with Mendota achieving mesotrophic conditions (<0.024 mg L-1). In years when P loads were high due to major runoff events, summer TP in the lakes was high (especially in shallower Waubesa and Kegonsa); in some summers dissolved inorganic P was elevated, indicating algae growth was not P limited. Summer TP returned to normal levels following both low and high load years, signifying the lakes were responsive to P load changes. The proportion of P input loads passed via a lake's outlet to the next lake downstream increased as flushing rates increased. Because Monona, Waubesa, and Kegonsa received 60, 83, and 76% of their surface water P load from the respective upstream lake's outlet, reducing P loads in Mendota's large watershed was predicted to produce significant water quality benefits downstream. Modeling indicated a significant grazing effect of Daphnia on summer TP and Secchi transparency readings for Mendota and Monona. Finally, using drought loads as targets, our study established P loading reductions needed to improve water quality in all 4 Yahara lakes.1 aLathrop, R., C.1 aCarpenter, S., R.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.5268/iw-4.1.68002308nas a2200145   4500008004100000022001400041245013500055210006900190300001200259490000800271520179500279100002102074700001702095856005002112       2013                        eng d  a0038-075X00aSoil Moisture Regime and Land Use History Drive Regional Differences in Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Storage Across Southern Wisconsin0 aSoil Moisture Regime and Land Use History Drive Regional Differe  a486-4950 v1783 aAgricultural land management can decrease soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) storage and adversely affect soil structure, but the actual impact can be confounded by the soil moisture regime. Wet or poorly drained soils tend to slow the process of organic matter oxidation and promote C storage, whereas comparatively drier or well-drained soils tend to promote organic matter turnover and C release. Therefore, the effects of land management, time since last disturbance, and soil moisture regime on near-surface soil bulk density (BD), SOC and total N (TN), and soil C:N ratios were evaluated across southern Wisconsin using a database generated during a 7-year period. Soil samples from the top 25 cm were collected from 169 sites consisting of prairie restorations and remnant prairies, Conservation Reserve Program land, agriculture (row crops and pasture), wetlands, and forests. Across all sites, soils with a udic soil moisture regime had lower (35%) native SOC, lower (31%) TN, greater (47%) BD, and lower (5.4%) soil C:N ratio than those with an aquic moisture regime. Agricultural (6.0 kg m(-2)) and restoration (5.8 kg m(-2)) sites had 30 and 32.3%, respectively, less SOC than native sites on udic soils, but agricultural (9.0 kg m(-2)) and restoration (8.8 kg m(-2)) sites with an aquic moisture regime shared similar SOC values with native sites under both udic (8.6 kg m(-2)) and aquic (10.6 kg m(-2)) moisture regimes. A 24.8% loss of native SOC attributed to agricultural land management occurred on aquic soils compared with a 33.6% loss on udic soils, and those effects were still present in prairie restorations. An apparent buffering capacity of wetter aquic soils on losses of C and N needs to be considered in quantifying soil C and N sequestration potential.1 aKucharik, C., J.1 aBrye, K., R.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1097/ss.000000000000001502151nas a2200133   4500008004100000245009000041210006900131300001600200490000800216520171200224100001601936700001901952856004601971       2013                        eng d00aSpatial interactions among ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed0 aSpatial interactions among ecosystem services in an urbanizing a  a12149-121540 v1103 aUnderstanding spatial distributions, synergies, and tradeoffs of multiple ecosystem services (benefits people derive from ecosystems) remains challenging. We analyzed the supply of 10 ecosystem services for 2006 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) Where are areas of high and low supply of individual ecosystem services, and are these areas spatially concordant across services? (ii) Where on the landscape are the strongest tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem services located? (iii) For ecosystem service pairs that experience tradeoffs, what distinguishes locations that are "win-win" exceptions from other locations? Spatial patterns of high supply for multiple ecosystem services often were not coincident; locations where six or more services were produced at high levels (upper 20th percentile) occupied only 3.3% of the landscape. Most relationships among ecosystem services were synergies, but tradeoffs occurred between crop production and water quality. Ecosystem services related to water quality and quantity separated into three different groups, indicating that management to sustain freshwater services along with other ecosystem services will not be simple. Despite overall tradeoffs between crop production and water quality, some locations were positive for both, suggesting that tradeoffs are not inevitable everywhere and might be ameliorated in some locations. Overall, we found that different areas of the landscape supplied different suites of ecosystem services, and their lack of spatial concordance suggests the importance of managing over large areas to sustain multiple ecosystem services.1 aQiu, J., X.1 aTurner, M., G.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.131053911002563nas a2200181   4500008004100000245015600041210006900197490000600266520193100272100001502203700002202218700001702240700001602257700001602273700001302289700001702302856006202319       2013                        eng d00aWhat is the influence on water quality in temperate eutrophic lakes of a reduction of planktivorous and benthivorous fish? A systematic review protocol0 aWhat is the influence on water quality in temperate eutrophic la0 v23 aBACKGROUND:In lakes that have become eutrophic due to sewage discharges or nutrient runoff from land, problems such as algal blooms and oxygen deficiency often persist even when nutrient supplies have been reduced. One reason is that phosphorus stored in the sediments can exchange with the water. There are indications that the high abundance of phytoplankton, turbid water and lack of submerged vegetation seen in many eutrophic lakes may represent a semi-stable state. For that reason, a shift back to more natural clear-water conditions could be difficult to achieve.In some cases, though, temporary mitigation of eutrophication-related problems has been accomplished through biomanipulation: stocks of zooplanktivorous fish have been reduced by intensive fishing, leading to increased populations of phytoplankton-feeding zooplankton. Moreover, reduction of benthivorous fish may result in lower phosphorus fluxes from the sediments. An alternative to reducing the dominance of planktivores and benthivores by fishing is to stock lakes with piscivorous fish. These two approaches have often been used in combination.The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive has recently led to more stringent demands for measures against eutrophication, and a systematic review could clarify whether biomanipulation is efficient as a measure of that kind.METHODS:The review will examine primary field studies of how large-scale biomanipulation has affected water quality and community structure in eutrophic lakes or reservoirs in temperate regions. Such studies can be based on comparison between conditions before and after manipulation, on comparison between treated and non-treated water bodies, or both. Relevant outcomes include Secchi depth, concentrations of oxygen, nutrients, suspended solids and chlorophyll, abundance and composition of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish, and coverage of submerged macrophytes.1 aBernes, C.1 aCarpenter, S., R.1 aGardmark, A.1 aLarsson, P.1 aPersson, L.1 aSkov, C.1 aVan Donk, E.  uhttp://www.environmentalevidencejournal.org/content/2/1/902205nas a2200169   4500008004100000020001400041245008000055210006900135260000900204300001100213490000600224520168100230100002501911700002201936700002601958856005101984       2012                        eng d  a1748-932600aEmbodied phosphorus and the global connections of United States agriculture0 aEmbodied phosphorus and the global connections of United States   c2012  a0440240 v73 aAgricultural phosphorus (P) use is intricately linked to food security and water quality.Globalization of agricultural systems and changing diets clearly alter these relationships, yettheir specific influence on non-renewable P reserves is less certain. We assessed P fertilizer usedfor production of food crops, livestock and biofuels in the US agricultural system, explicitlycomparing the domestic P use required for US food consumption to the P use embodied in theproduction of US food imports and exports. By far the largest demand for P fertilizer throughout theUS agricultural system was for feed and livestock production (56% of total P fertilizer use,including that for traded commodities). As little as 8% of the total mineral P inputs to US domesticagriculture in 2007 (1905 Gg P) was consumed in US diets in the same year, while larger fractionsmay have been retained in agricultural soils (28%), associated with different post-harvest losses(40%) or with biofuel refining (10%). One quarter of all P fertilizer used in the US was linked toexport production, primarily crops, driving a large net P flux out of the country (338 Gg P).However, US meat consumption relied considerably on P fertilizer use in other countries to producered meat imports. Changes in domestic farm management and consumer waste could together reduce the Pfertilizer required for US food consumption by half, which is comparable to the P fertilizerreduction attainable by cutting domestic meat consumption (44%). US export-oriented agriculture,domestic post-harvest P losses and global demand for meat may ultimately have an important influenceon the lifespan of US phosphate rock reserves.1 aMacDonald, Graham, K1 aBennett, Elena, M1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R  uhttp://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/7/i=4/a=04402401595nas a2200385   4500008004100000020001400041245005100055210005100106300001400157490000600171520062000177100002200797700001800819700001600837700001400853700001800867700001900885700001700904700001400921700001900935700001600954700001500970700001700985700001301002700001801015700001601033700001701049700001601066700001601082700002001098700001501118700001901133700001701152856004001169       2012                        eng d  a2071-105000aGeneral Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events0 aGeneral Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events  a3248-32590 v43 aResilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.1 aCarpenter, S., R.1 aArrow, K., J.1 aBarrett, S.1 aBiggs, R.1 aBrock, W., A.1 aCrepin, A., S.1 aEngstrom, G.1 aFolke, C.1 aHughes, T., P.1 aKautsky, N.1 aLi, C., Z.1 aMcCarney, G.1 aMeng, K.1 aMaler, K., G.1 aPolasky, S.1 aScheffer, M.1 aShogren, J.1 aSterner, T.1 aVincent, J., R.1 aWalker, B.1 aXepapadeas, A.1 ade Zeeuw, A.  uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su412324800972nas a2200121   4500008004100000245006700041210006700108260009800175520047300273100002600746700002200772856005600794       2012                        eng d00aScenarios and Decisionmaking for Complex Environmental Systems0 aScenarios and Decisionmaking for Complex Environmental Systems  aNewtown Square, PAbU.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station3 aScenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional
project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary. Scenarios can help address several of the currently recognized challenges of sustainability science.1 aCarpenter, Stephen, R1 aRissman, Adena, R  uhttp://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs-p-107.pdf