@article {185,
	title = {Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios},
	journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
	volume = {693},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019/11/25/},
	pages = {133484},
	abstract = {Eutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014{\textendash}2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.},
	keywords = {climate, land use, Manure, phosphorus, Surface water quality, Watershed},
	isbn = {0048-9697},
	doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.290},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719334047},
	author = {Motew, Melissa and Chen, Xi and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Booth, Eric G. and Seifert, Jenny and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Loheide, Steven P. and Turner, Monica G. and Zipper, Samuel C. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {181,
	title = {Scale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019/03/20},
	pages = {201817561},
	abstract = {Cities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer air temperatures, with serious consequences for people. Increased tree cover is suggested as a climate adaptation strategy, but the amount of tree canopy cover needed to counteract higher temperatures associated with impervious surface cover is not known. We used a bicycle-mounted measurement system to quantify the interaction of canopy cover and impervious surface cover on urban air temperature. Daytime air temperature was substantially reduced with greater canopy cover (>=40\%) at the scale of a typical city block (60{\textendash}90 m), especially on the hottest days. However, reducing impervious surfaces remained important for lowering nighttime temperatures. Results can guide strategies for increasing tree cover to mitigate daytime urban heat and improve residents{\textquoteright} well-being.As cities warm and the need for climate adaptation strategies increases, a more detailed understanding of the cooling effects of land cover across a continuum of spatial scales will be necessary to guide management decisions. We asked how tree canopy cover and impervious surface cover interact to influence daytime and nighttime summer air temperature, and how effects vary with the spatial scale at which land-cover data are analyzed (10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-m radii). A bicycle-mounted measurement system was used to sample air temperature every 5 m along 10 transects (\~{}7 km length, sampled 3{\textendash}12 times each) spanning a range of impervious and tree canopy cover (0{\textendash}100\%, each) in a midsized city in the Upper Midwest United States. Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 {\textdegree}C (range, 1.1{\textendash}5.7 {\textdegree}C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40\%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60{\textendash}90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 {\textdegree}C (range, 1.2{\textendash}3.0 {\textdegree}C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.},
	keywords = {air temperature, ecosystem services, landscape context, urban forest, urban heat island},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1817561116},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/19/1817561116.abstract},
	author = {Ziter, Carly D. and Pedersen, Eric J. and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {177,
	title = {Current and historical land use influence soil-based ecosystem services in an urban landscape},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	year = {2018},
	month = {2018/03/06},
	abstract = {Abstract Urban landscapes are increasingly recognized as providing important ecosystem services (ES) to their occupants. Yet, urban ES assessments often ignore the complex spatial heterogeneity and land?use history of cities. Soil?based services may be particularly susceptible to land?use legacy effects. We studied indicators of three soil?based ES, carbon storage, water quality regulation, and runoff regulation, in a historically agricultural urban landscape and asked (1) How do ES indicators vary with contemporary land cover and time since development? (2) Do ES indicators vary primarily among land?cover classes, within land?cover classes, or within sites? (3) What is the relative contribution of urban land?cover classes to potential citywide ES provision? We measured biophysical indicators (soil carbon [C], available phosphorus [P], and saturated hydraulic conductivity [Ks]) in 100 sites across five land?cover classes, spanning an ~125?year gradient of time since development within each land?cover class. Potential for ES provision was substantial in urban green spaces, including developed land. Runoff regulation services (high Ks) were highest in forests; water quality regulation (low P) was highest in open spaces and grasslands; and open spaces and developed land (e.g., residential yards) had the highest C storage. In developed land covers, both C and P increased with time since development, indicating effects of historical land?use on contemporary ES and trade?offs between two important ES. Among?site differences accounted for a high proportion of variance in soil properties in forests, grasslands, and open space, while residential areas had high within?site variability, underscoring the leverage city residents have to improve urban ES provision. Developed land covers contributed most ES supply at the citywide scale, even after accounting for potential impacts of impervious surfaces. Considering the full mosaic of urban green space and its history is needed to estimate the kinds and magnitude of ES provided in cities, and to augment regional ES assessments that often ignore or underestimate urban ES supply.},
	keywords = {carbon, ecosystem services, Historical ecology, land-use change, phosphorus, runoff regulation, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil, Urban ecosystems, Water quality},
	isbn = {1051-0761},
	doi = {10.1002/eap.1689},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1689},
	author = {Ziter, Carly and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {157,
	title = {Annual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of lake water clarity},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	volume = {27},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {632 - 643},
	abstract = {Understanding how and why lakes vary and respond to different drivers through time and space is needed to understand, predict, and manage freshwater quality in an era of rapidly changing land use and climate. Water clarity regulates many characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and is responsive to watershed features, making it a sentinel of environmental change. However, whether precipitation alters the relative importance of features that influence lake water clarity or the spatial scales at which they operate is unknown. We used a dataset of thousands of north temperate lakes and asked: (1) How does water clarity differ between a very wet versus dry year? (2) Does the relative importance of different watershed features, or the spatial extent at which they are measured, vary between wet and dry years? (3) What lake and watershed characteristics regulate long-term water clarity trends? Among lakes, water clarity was reduced and less variable in the wet year than in the dry year; furthermore, water clarity was reduced much more in high-clarity lakes during the wet year than in low-clarity lakes. Climate, land use/land cover, and lake morphometry explained most variance in clarity among lakes in both years, but the spatial scales at which some features were important differed between the dry and wet years. Watershed percent agriculture was most important in the dry year, whereas riparian zone percent agriculture (around each lake and upstream features) was most important in the wet year. Between 1991 and 2012, water clarity declined in 23\% of lakes and increased in only 6\% of lakes. Conductance influenced the direction of temporal trend (clarity declined in lakes with low conductance), whereas the proportion of watershed wetlands, catchment-to-lake-area ratio, and lake maximum depth interacted with antecedent precipitation. Many predictors of water clarity, such as lake depth and landscape position, are features that cannot be readily managed. Given trends of increasing precipitation, eliminating riparian zone agriculture or keeping it <10\% of area may be an effective option to maintain or improve water clarity.},
	keywords = {land use, land-water interactions, landscape ecology, precipitation, remote sensing, Water quality},
	isbn = {1939-5582},
	doi = {10.1002/eap.1471},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1471},
	author = {Rose, Kevin C and Greb, Steven R. and Diebel, Matthew and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {156,
	title = {Effects of non-native Asian earthworm invasion on temperate forest and prairie soils in the Midwestern US},
	journal = {Biological Invasions},
	volume = {19},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {73 - 88},
	abstract = {Effects of invasive European earthworms in North America have been well documented, but less is known about ecological consequences of exotic Asian earthworm invasion, in particular Asian jumping worms (Amynthas) that are increasingly reported. Most earthworm invasion research has focused on forests; some Amynthas spp. are native to Asian grasslands and may thrive in prairies with unknown effects. We conducted an earthworm-addition mesocosm experiment with before{\textendash}after control-impact (BACI) design and a complementary field study in southern Wisconsin, USA, in 2014 to investigate effects of a newly discovered invasion of two Asian jumping worms (Amynthas agrestis and Amynthas tokioensis) on forest and prairie litter and soil nutrient pools. In both studies, A. agrestis and A. tokioensis substantially reduced surface litter (84{\textendash}95~\% decline in foliage litter mass) and increased total carbon, total nitrogen, and available phosphorus in the upper 0{\textendash}5~cm of soils over the 4-month period from July through October. Soil inorganic nitrogen (ammonium{\textendash} and nitrate{\textendash}N) concentration increased across soil depths of 0{\textendash}25~cm, with greater effects on nitrate{\textendash}N. Dissolved organic carbon concentration also increased, e.g., 71{\textendash}108~\% increase in the mesocosm experiment. Effects were observed in both forest and prairie soils, with stronger effects in forests. Effects were most pronounced late in the growing season when earthworm biomass likely peaked. Depletion of the litter layer and rapid mineralization of nutrients by non-native Asian jumping worms may make ecosystems more susceptible to nutrient losses, and effects may cascade to understory herbs and other soil biota.},
	keywords = {Amynthas agrestis, Amynthas tokioensis, Asian jumping worm, Ecosystem change, Nutrient cycling, Wisconsin},
	isbn = {1573-1464},
	doi = {10.1007/s10530-016-1264-5},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10530-016-1264-5},
	author = {Qiu, Jiangxiao and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {169,
	title = {How do land-use legacies affect ecosystem services in United States cultural landscapes?},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017//},
	pages = {1 - 14},
	abstract = {Landscape-scale studies of ecosystem services (ES) have increased, but few consider land-use history. Historical land use may be especially important in cultural landscapes, producing legacies that influence ecosystem structure, function, and biota that in turn affect ES supply. Our goal was to generate a conceptual framework for understanding when land-use legacies matter for ES supply in well-studied agricultural,urban, and exurban US landscapes. We synthesized illustrative examples from published literature in which landscape legacies were demonstrated or are likely to influence ES. We suggest three related conditions in which land-use legacies are important for understanding current ES supply. (1) Intrinsically slow ecological processes govern ES supply, illustrated for soil-based and hydrologic services impaired by slowly processed pollutants. (2) Time lags between land-use change and ecosystem responses delay effects on ES supply, illustrated for biodiversity-based services that may experience an ES debt. (3) Threshold relationships exist, such that changes in ES are difficult to reverse,and legacy lock-in disconnects contemporary landscapes from ES supply, illustrated by hydrologic services. Mismatches between contemporary landscape patterns and mechanisms underpinning ES supply yield unexpected patterns of ES. Today{\textquoteright}s land-use decisions will generate tomorrow{\textquoteright}s legacies, and ES will be affected if processes underpinning ES are affected by land-use legacies. Research priorities include understanding effects of urban abandonment, new contaminants, and interactions of land-use legacies and climate change. Improved understanding of historical effects will improve management of contemporary ES, and aid in decision-making as new challenges to sustaining cultural landscapes arise.},
	keywords = {Agricultural ecosystems, Exurban ecosystems, Historical ecology, land-use change, Urban ecosystems},
	isbn = {1572-9761},
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-017-0545-4},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0545-4},
	author = {Ziter, Carly and Graves, Rose A. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {164,
	title = {The Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed},
	journal = {Ecosystems},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017//},
	pages = {1 - 15},
	abstract = {Decades of fertilizer and manure applications have led to a buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and sediments, commonly referred to as legacy P. Legacy P can provide a long-term source of P to surface waters where it causes eutrophication. Using a suite of numerical models, we investigated the influence of legacy P on water quality in the Yahara Watershed of southern Wisconsin, USA. The suite included Agro-IBIS, a terrestrial ecosystem model; THMB, a hydrologic and nutrient routing model; and the Yahara Water Quality Model which estimates water quality indicators in the Yahara chain of lakes. Using five alternative scenarios of antecedent P storage (legacy P) in soils and channels under historical climate conditions, we simulated outcomes of P yield from the landscape, lake P loading, and three lake water quality indicators. Legacy P had a significant effect on lake loads and water quality. Across the five scenarios for Lake Mendota, the largest and most upstream lake, average P yield (kg~ha-1) varied by -41 to +22\%, P load (kg~y-1) by -35 to +14\%, summer total P (TP) concentration (mg~l-1) by -25 to +12\%, Secchi depth (m) by -7 to +3\%, and the probability of hypereutrophy by -67 to +34\%, relative to baseline conditions. The minimum storage scenario showed that a 35\% reduction in present-day loads to Lake Mendota corresponded with a 25\% reduction in summer TP and smaller reductions in the downstream lakes. Water quality was more vulnerable to heavy rainfall events at higher amounts of P storage and less so at lower amounts. Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with climate change; therefore, water quality could be protected by decreasing P reserves.},
	isbn = {1435-0629},
	doi = {10.1007/s10021-017-0125-0},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0125-0},
	author = {Motew, Melissa and Chen, Xi and Booth, Eric G. and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Pinkas, Pavel and Zipper, Samuel C. and Loheide, Steven P. and Donner, Simon D. and Tsuruta, Kai and Vadas, Peter A. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {126,
	title = {Alternative scenarios of bioenergy crop production in an agricultural landscape and implications for bird communities},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	volume = {26},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	pages = {42 - 54},
	abstract = {Increased demand and government mandates for bioenergy crops in the United States could require a large allocation of agricultural land to bioenergy feedstock production and substantially alter current landscape patterns. Incorporating bioenergy landscape design into land-use decision making could help maximize benefits and minimize trade-offs among alternative land uses. We developed spatially explicit landscape scenarios of increased bioenergy crop production in an 80-km radius agricultural landscape centered on a potential biomass-processing energy facility and evaluated the consequences of each scenario for bird communities. Our scenarios included conversion of existing annual row crops to perennial bioenergy grasslands and conversion of existing grasslands to annual bioenergy row crops. The scenarios explored combinations of four biomass crop types (three potential grassland crops along a gradient of plant diversity and one annual row crop [corn]), three land conversion percentages to bioenergy crops (10\%, 20\%, or 30\% of row crops or grasslands), and three spatial configurations of biomass crop fields (random, clustered near similar field types, or centered on the processing plant), yielding 36 scenarios. For each scenario, we predicted the impact on four bird community metrics: species richness, total bird density, species of greatest conservation need (SGCN) density, and SGCN hotspots (SGCN birds/ha >= 2). Bird community metrics consistently increased with conversion of row crops to bioenergy grasslands and consistently decreased with conversion of grasslands to bioenergy row crops. Spatial arrangement of bioenergy fields had strong effects on the bird community and in some cases was more influential than the amount converted to bioenergy crops. Clustering grasslands had a stronger positive influence on the bird community than locating grasslands near the central plant or at random. Expansion of bioenergy grasslands onto marginal agricultural lands will likely benefit grassland bird populations, and bioenergy landscapes could be designed to maximize biodiversity benefits while meeting targets for biomass production.},
	keywords = {bioenergy crops, grass biomass, grassland birds, land-use change, landscape scenarios, row-crop agriculture, species of greatest conservation need},
	isbn = {1939-5582},
	doi = {10.1890/14-1490},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/14-1490},
	author = {Blank, Peter J. and Williams, Carol L. and Sample, David W. and Meehan, Timothy D. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {147,
	title = {From qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale},
	journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
	volume = {85},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {80 - 97},
	abstract = {Scenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.},
	keywords = {Biophysical modeling, Climate change, Land use change, scenarios, Social-ecological systems, Watershed},
	isbn = {1364-8152},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.008},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216304935},
	author = {Booth, Eric G. and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Schatz, Jason and Chen, Xi and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide II, Steven P. and Motew, Melissa M. and Seifert, Jenny M. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {159,
	title = {Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	abstract = {Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space{\textendash}time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are {\textquotedblleft}expanding{\textquotedblright}, {\textquotedblleft}shrinking{\textquotedblright}, {\textquotedblleft}speeding up{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}slowing down{\textquotedblright} ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.},
	keywords = {Hierarchy theory, landscape ecology, macrosystems ecology, space{\textendash}time, spatio-temporal},
	isbn = {1461-0248},
	doi = {10.1111/ele.12717},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12717},
	author = {Rose, Kevin C. and Graves, Rose A. and Hansen, Winslow D. and Harvey, Brian J. and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Wood, Stephen A. and Ziter, Carly and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {152,
	title = {Spatial fit between water quality policies and hydrologic ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural landscape},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016//},
	pages = {1 - 17},
	abstract = {Context
Sustaining hydrologic ecosystem services is critical for human wellbeing but challenged by land use for agriculture and urban development. Water policy and management strive to safeguard hydrologic services, yet implementation is often fragmented. Understanding the spatial fit between water polices and hydrologic services is needed to assess the spatial targeting of policy portfolios at landscape scales.
Objectives
We investigated spatial fit between 30 different public water policies and four hydrologic services (surface and groundwater quality, freshwater supply, and flood regulation) in the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA){\textemdash}a Midwestern landscape that typifies tensions between agriculture, urban development, and freshwater resources.
Methods
Spatial extent of water policy implementation was mapped, and indicators of hydrologic services were quantified for subwatersheds using empirical estimates and validated spatial models.
Results
We found a spatial misfit between the overall spatial implementation of water policy and regions of water quality concern, indicating a need for better targeting. Water quality policies can also be leveraged to protect other hydrologic services such as freshwater supply and flood regulation. Individual policy application areas varied substantially in their spatial congruence with each hydrologic service, indicating that not all services are protected by a single policy and highlighting the need for a broad spectrum of policies to sustain hydrologic services in diverse landscapes. We also identified where future policies could be targeted for improving hydrologic services.
Conclusions
Joint spatial analysis of policies and ecosystem services is effective for assessing spatial aspects of institutional fit, and provides a foundation for guiding future policy efforts.},
	keywords = {Flood regulation, Freshwater, Groundwater quality, Groundwater recharge, landscape ecology, Policy targeting, Spatial overlap, Surface-water quality, Wisconsin, Yahara Watershed},
	isbn = {1572-9761},
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-016-0428-0},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-016-0428-0},
	author = {Qiu, Jiangxiao and Wardropper, Chloe B. and Rissman, Adena R. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {137,
	title = {Urban heat island impacts on plant phenology: intra-urban variability and response to land cover},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	volume = {11},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	pages = {054023},
	abstract = {Despite documented intra-urban heterogeneity in the urban heat island (UHI) effect, little is knownabout spatial or temporal variability in plant response to the UHI. Using an automated temperaturesensor network in conjunction with Landsat-derived remotely sensed estimates of start/end of thegrowing season, we investigate the impacts of the UHI on plant phenology in the city of Madison WI(USA) for the 2012{\textendash}2014 growing seasons. Median urban growing season length (GSL) estimated fromtemperature sensors is \~{}5 d longer than surrounding rural areas, and UHI impacts on GSL arerelatively consistent from year-to-year. Parks within urban areas experience a subdued expression ofGSL lengthening resulting from interactions between the UHI and a park cool island effect. Acrossall growing seasons, impervious cover in the area surrounding each temperature sensor explains >50\%of observed variability in phenology. Comparisons between long-term estimates of annual meanphenological timing, derived from remote sensing, and temperature-based estimates of individualgrowing seasons show no relationship at the individual sensor level. The magnitude of disagreementbetween temperature-based and remotely sensed phenology is a function of impervious and grass coversurrounding the sensor, suggesting that realized GSL is controlled by both local land cover andmicrometeorological conditions.},
	keywords = {land surface phenology, remote sensing, sensor network, urban climate, urban ecology, urban heat island, vegetation phenology},
	isbn = {1748-9326},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054023},
	url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=5/a=054023},
	author = {Samuel C Zipper and Jason Schatz and Aditya Singh and Christopher J Kucharik and Philip A Townsend and Steven P Loheide}
}
@article {123,
	title = {Importance of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic ecosystem services in an agricultural watershed},
	journal = {Ecosphere},
	volume = {6},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015/11/01},
	pages = {art229},
	abstract = {The sustainability of hydrologic ecosystem services (freshwater benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystems) is challenged by human modification of landscapes. However, the role of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic services at scales relevant to landscape management decisions is poorly understood. In particular, the relative importance of landscape composition (type and proportion of land cover) and configuration (spatial arrangement of cover types) is unclear. We analyzed indicators of production of three hydrologic services (freshwater supply, surface and ground water quality) in 100 subwatersheds in an urbanizing agricultural landscape (Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA) and asked: (1) How do landscape composition and configuration affect supply of hydrologic services (i.e., does spatial pattern matter)? (2) Are there opportunities for small changes in landscape pattern to produce large gains in hydrologic services? Landscape composition and configuration both affected supply of hydrologic services, but composition was consistently more important than configuration for all three services. Together landscape composition and configuration explained more variation in indicators of surface-water quality than in freshwater supply or groundwater quality (Nagelkerke/adjusted R2: 86\%, 64\%, and 39\%, respectively). Surface-water quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and positively correlated with percent forest, grassland and wetland. In addition, surface-water quality was greater in subwatersheds with higher wetland patch density, disaggregated forest patches and lower contagion. Surface-water quality responded nonlinearly to percent cropland and wetland, with greater water quality where cropland covered below 60\% and/or wetland above 6\% of the subwatershed. Freshwater supply was negatively correlated with percent wetland and urban cover, and positively correlated with urban edge density. Groundwater quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and grassland, and configuration variables were unimportant. Collectively, our study suggests that altering spatial arrangement of land cover will not be sufficient to enhance hydrologic services in an agricultural landscape. Rather, the relative abundance of land cover may need to change to improve hydrologic services. Targeting subwatersheds near the cropland or wetland thresholds may offer local opportunities to enhance surface-water quality with minimal land-cover change.The sustainability of hydrologic ecosystem services (freshwater benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystems) is challenged by human modification of landscapes. However, the role of landscape heterogeneity in sustaining hydrologic services at scales relevant to landscape management decisions is poorly understood. In particular, the relative importance of landscape composition (type and proportion of land cover) and configuration (spatial arrangement of cover types) is unclear. We analyzed indicators of production of three hydrologic services (freshwater supply, surface and ground water quality) in 100 subwatersheds in an urbanizing agricultural landscape (Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA) and asked: (1) How do landscape composition and configuration affect supply of hydrologic services (i.e., does spatial pattern matter)? (2) Are there opportunities for small changes in landscape pattern to produce large gains in hydrologic services? Landscape composition and configuration both affected supply of hydrologic services, but composition was consistently more important than configuration for all three services. Together landscape composition and configuration explained more variation in indicators of surface-water quality than in freshwater supply or groundwater quality (Nagelkerke/adjusted R2: 86\%, 64\%, and 39\%, respectively). Surface-water quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and positively correlated with percent forest, grassland and wetland. In addition, surface-water quality was greater in subwatersheds with higher wetland patch density, disaggregated forest patches and lower contagion. Surface-water quality responded nonlinearly to percent cropland and wetland, with greater water quality where cropland covered below 60\% and/or wetland above 6\% of the subwatershed. Freshwater supply was negatively correlated with percent wetland and urban cover, and positively correlated with urban edge density. Groundwater quality was negatively correlated with percent cropland and grassland, and configuration variables were unimportant. Collectively, our study suggests that altering spatial arrangement of land cover will not be sufficient to enhance hydrologic services in an agricultural landscape. Rather, the relative abundance of land cover may need to change to improve hydrologic services. Targeting subwatersheds near the cropland or wetland thresholds may offer local opportunities to enhance surface-water quality with minimal land-cover change.},
	keywords = {agricultural landscape, land management, landscape ecology, nonlinearity, spatial configuration, Spatial heterogeneity, sustainability, synergies, tradeoffs},
	isbn = {2150-8925},
	doi = {10.1890/ES15-00312.1},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00312.1},
	author = {Qiu, Jiangxiao and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {100,
	title = {Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA},
	journal = {Ecology and Society},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015},
	abstract = {Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km\&$\#$178;, population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed\&$\#$8217;s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010\&$\#$8211;2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.},
	keywords = {alternative futures, climate, ecosystem services, eutrophication, governance, lakes, land-use change, phosphorus, scenarios},
	doi = {10.5751/ES-07433-200210},
	url = {http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art10/},
	author = {Carpenter, Stephen R. and Booth, Eric G. and Gillon, Sean and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide, Steven and Mase, Amber S. and Motew, Melissa and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Rissman, Adena R. and Seifert, Jenny and Soylu, Evren and Turner, Monica and Wardropper, Chloe B.}
}
@article {66,
	title = {Spatial interactions among ecosystem services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
	volume = {110},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {12149-12154},
	chapter = {12149},
	abstract = {Understanding spatial distributions, synergies, and tradeoffs of multiple ecosystem services (benefits people derive from ecosystems) remains challenging. We analyzed the supply of 10 ecosystem services for 2006 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) Where are areas of high and low supply of individual ecosystem services, and are these areas spatially concordant across services? (ii) Where on the landscape are the strongest tradeoffs and synergies among ecosystem services located? (iii) For ecosystem service pairs that experience tradeoffs, what distinguishes locations that are "win-win" exceptions from other locations? Spatial patterns of high supply for multiple ecosystem services often were not coincident; locations where six or more services were produced at high levels (upper 20th percentile) occupied only 3.3\% of the landscape. Most relationships among ecosystem services were synergies, but tradeoffs occurred between crop production and water quality. Ecosystem services related to water quality and quantity separated into three different groups, indicating that management to sustain freshwater services along with other ecosystem services will not be simple. Despite overall tradeoffs between crop production and water quality, some locations were positive for both, suggesting that tradeoffs are not inevitable everywhere and might be ameliorated in some locations. Overall, we found that different areas of the landscape supplied different suites of ecosystem services, and their lack of spatial concordance suggests the importance of managing over large areas to sustain multiple ecosystem services.},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1310539110},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1310539110},
	author = {Qiu, J. X. and Turner, M. G.}
}
