@article {181,
	title = {Scale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019/03/20},
	pages = {201817561},
	abstract = {Cities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer air temperatures, with serious consequences for people. Increased tree cover is suggested as a climate adaptation strategy, but the amount of tree canopy cover needed to counteract higher temperatures associated with impervious surface cover is not known. We used a bicycle-mounted measurement system to quantify the interaction of canopy cover and impervious surface cover on urban air temperature. Daytime air temperature was substantially reduced with greater canopy cover (>=40\%) at the scale of a typical city block (60{\textendash}90 m), especially on the hottest days. However, reducing impervious surfaces remained important for lowering nighttime temperatures. Results can guide strategies for increasing tree cover to mitigate daytime urban heat and improve residents{\textquoteright} well-being.As cities warm and the need for climate adaptation strategies increases, a more detailed understanding of the cooling effects of land cover across a continuum of spatial scales will be necessary to guide management decisions. We asked how tree canopy cover and impervious surface cover interact to influence daytime and nighttime summer air temperature, and how effects vary with the spatial scale at which land-cover data are analyzed (10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-m radii). A bicycle-mounted measurement system was used to sample air temperature every 5 m along 10 transects (\~{}7 km length, sampled 3{\textendash}12 times each) spanning a range of impervious and tree canopy cover (0{\textendash}100\%, each) in a midsized city in the Upper Midwest United States. Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 {\textdegree}C (range, 1.1{\textendash}5.7 {\textdegree}C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40\%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60{\textendash}90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 {\textdegree}C (range, 1.2{\textendash}3.0 {\textdegree}C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.},
	keywords = {air temperature, ecosystem services, landscape context, urban forest, urban heat island},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1817561116},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/19/1817561116.abstract},
	author = {Ziter, Carly D. and Pedersen, Eric J. and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {164,
	title = {The Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed},
	journal = {Ecosystems},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017//},
	pages = {1 - 15},
	abstract = {Decades of fertilizer and manure applications have led to a buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and sediments, commonly referred to as legacy P. Legacy P can provide a long-term source of P to surface waters where it causes eutrophication. Using a suite of numerical models, we investigated the influence of legacy P on water quality in the Yahara Watershed of southern Wisconsin, USA. The suite included Agro-IBIS, a terrestrial ecosystem model; THMB, a hydrologic and nutrient routing model; and the Yahara Water Quality Model which estimates water quality indicators in the Yahara chain of lakes. Using five alternative scenarios of antecedent P storage (legacy P) in soils and channels under historical climate conditions, we simulated outcomes of P yield from the landscape, lake P loading, and three lake water quality indicators. Legacy P had a significant effect on lake loads and water quality. Across the five scenarios for Lake Mendota, the largest and most upstream lake, average P yield (kg~ha-1) varied by -41 to +22\%, P load (kg~y-1) by -35 to +14\%, summer total P (TP) concentration (mg~l-1) by -25 to +12\%, Secchi depth (m) by -7 to +3\%, and the probability of hypereutrophy by -67 to +34\%, relative to baseline conditions. The minimum storage scenario showed that a 35\% reduction in present-day loads to Lake Mendota corresponded with a 25\% reduction in summer TP and smaller reductions in the downstream lakes. Water quality was more vulnerable to heavy rainfall events at higher amounts of P storage and less so at lower amounts. Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with climate change; therefore, water quality could be protected by decreasing P reserves.},
	isbn = {1435-0629},
	doi = {10.1007/s10021-017-0125-0},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0125-0},
	author = {Motew, Melissa and Chen, Xi and Booth, Eric G. and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Pinkas, Pavel and Zipper, Samuel C. and Loheide, Steven P. and Donner, Simon D. and Tsuruta, Kai and Vadas, Peter A. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {127,
	title = {Biodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios},
	journal = {Sustainability Science},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	pages = {1 - 5},
	abstract = {What does the future hold for the world{\textquoteright}s ecosystems and benefits that people obtain from them? While the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has identified the development of scenarios as a key to helping decision makers identify potential impacts of different policy options, it currently lacks a long-term scenario strategy. IPBES will decide how it will approach scenarios at its plenary meeting on 22{\textendash}28 February 2016, in Kuala Lumpur. IPBES now needs to decide whether it should create new scenarios that better explore ecosystem services and biodiversity dynamics. For IPBES to capture the social-ecological dynamics of biodiversity and ecosystem services, it is essential to engage with the great diversity of local contexts, while also including the global tele-coupling among local places. We present and compare three alternative scenario strategies that IPBES could use and then suggest a bottom-up, cross-scale scenario strategy to improve the policy relevance of future IPBES assessments. We propose five concrete steps as part of an effective, long term scenario development process for IPBES in cooperation with the scientific community.},
	isbn = {1862-4057},
	doi = {10.1007/s11625-016-0354-8},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0354-8},
	author = {Kok, Marcel T. J. and Kok, Kasper and Peterson, Garry D. and Hill, Rosemary and Agard, John and Carpenter, Stephen R.}
}
@article {93,
	title = {Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems},
	journal = {Science},
	volume = {347},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015/03/20},
	pages = {1317 - 1319},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aaa3769},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6228/1317.short},
	author = {Scheffer, M. and Barrett, S. and Carpenter, S. R. and Folke, C. and Green, A. J. and Holmgren, M. and Hughes, T. P. and Kosten, S. and van de Leemput, I. A. and Nepstad, D. C. and van Nes, E. H. and Peeters, E. T. H. M. and Walker, B.}
}
@article {95,
	title = {Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet},
	journal = {Science},
	volume = {347},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015/02/13},
	abstract = {The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries{\textemdash}climate change and biosphere integrity{\textemdash}have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1259855},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.abstract},
	author = {Steffen, Will and Richardson, Katherine and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan and Cornell, Sarah E. and Fetzer, Ingo and Bennett, Elena M. and Biggs, Reinette and Carpenter, Stephen R. and de Vries, Wim and de Wit, Cynthia A. and Folke, Carl and Gerten, Dieter and Heinke, Jens and Mace, Georgina M. and Persson, Linn M. and Ramanathan, Veerabhadran and Reyers, Belinda and S{\"o}rlin, Sverker}
}
@article {67,
	title = {What is the influence on water quality in temperate eutrophic lakes of a reduction of planktivorous and benthivorous fish? A systematic review protocol},
	journal = {Environmental Evidence},
	volume = {2},
	year = {2013},
	abstract = {BACKGROUND:In lakes that have become eutrophic due to sewage discharges or nutrient runoff from land, problems such as algal blooms and oxygen deficiency often persist even when nutrient supplies have been reduced. One reason is that phosphorus stored in the sediments can exchange with the water. There are indications that the high abundance of phytoplankton, turbid water and lack of submerged vegetation seen in many eutrophic lakes may represent a semi-stable state. For that reason, a shift back to more natural clear-water conditions could be difficult to achieve.In some cases, though, temporary mitigation of eutrophication-related problems has been accomplished through biomanipulation: stocks of zooplanktivorous fish have been reduced by intensive fishing, leading to increased populations of phytoplankton-feeding zooplankton. Moreover, reduction of benthivorous fish may result in lower phosphorus fluxes from the sediments. An alternative to reducing the dominance of planktivores and benthivores by fishing is to stock lakes with piscivorous fish. These two approaches have often been used in combination.The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive has recently led to more stringent demands for measures against eutrophication, and a systematic review could clarify whether biomanipulation is efficient as a measure of that kind.METHODS:The review will examine primary field studies of how large-scale biomanipulation has affected water quality and community structure in eutrophic lakes or reservoirs in temperate regions. Such studies can be based on comparison between conditions before and after manipulation, on comparison between treated and non-treated water bodies, or both. Relevant outcomes include Secchi depth, concentrations of oxygen, nutrients, suspended solids and chlorophyll, abundance and composition of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish, and coverage of submerged macrophytes.},
	doi = {10.1186/2047-2382-2-9},
	url = {http://www.environmentalevidencejournal.org/content/2/1/9},
	author = {Bernes, C. and Carpenter, S. R. and Gardmark, A. and Larsson, P. and Persson, L. and Skov, C. and Van Donk, E.}
}
@article {68,
	title = {General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events},
	journal = {Sustainability},
	volume = {4},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {3248-3259},
	abstract = {Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.},
	isbn = {2071-1050},
	doi = {10.3390/su4123248},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su4123248},
	author = {Carpenter, S. R. and Arrow, K. J. and Barrett, S. and Biggs, R. and Brock, W. A. and Crepin, A. S. and Engstrom, G. and Folke, C. and Hughes, T. P. and Kautsky, N. and Li, C. Z. and McCarney, G. and Meng, K. and Maler, K. G. and Polasky, S. and Scheffer, M. and Shogren, J. and Sterner, T. and Vincent, J. R. and Walker, B. and Xepapadeas, A. and de Zeeuw, A.}
}
