@article {187,
	title = {Knowledge of majority scientific agreement on anthropogenic climate change predicts perceived global risk better than perceived personal risk},
	journal = {Journal of Risk Research},
	year = {2022},
	abstract = {Studies examining climate change risk perceptions rarely differentiate between personal and general risk perceptions. Researchers could come to conflicting conclusions about what variables are important in predicting people{\textquoteright}s perceptions of risk if they do not differentiate between perceptions of personal and general risk. In this study, we used data from a survey of residents in a Midwestern region of the United States to examine the relationship between two measures of knowledge and perceptions of the risk of climate change at personal and the global (i.e. general) levels. Knowledge of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change significantly predicted perceptions of both types of risks, but was more strongly related to greater risk perceptions at the global level. Knowledge of climate change{\textquoteright}s impact on regional flooding predicted greater climate change risk perception, and we did not find a difference in its association with risk perception at the global versus the personal level. Understanding how different types of knowledge influence people{\textquoteright}s perception of climate change risks can foster a better understanding of related decision-making processes and used to support more strategic public education and communication on climate change.},
	keywords = {anthropogenic climate change, comparative optimism, Knowledge, psychological distance, risk perception, scientific consensus},
	doi = {10.1080/13669877.2022.2028883},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/citedby/10.1080/13669877.2022.2028883},
	author = {Kohl, Patrice and Wardropper, Chloe}
}
@article {186,
	title = {Ecological worldview, agricultural or natural resource-based activities, and geography affect perceived importance of ecosystem services},
	journal = {Landscape and Urban Planning},
	volume = {197},
	year = {2020},
	month = {2020/05/01/},
	pages = {103768},
	abstract = {Understanding public perceptions of the importance of ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for the development and communication of sustainable management and policies. Yet public perspectives on ES and their sociocultural and geographic patterns are not well understood. This study asks: Which ES are perceived as more or less important by the general public?; Which ES are considered most similar when the public are asked to evaluate the importance of specific water, agricultural and natural resources ES?; And, what individual and geographic factors are associated with perceived importance of different ES? We conducted a survey of residents in an urban and agricultural watershed in the U.S. Upper Midwest (n~=~1136). This study asked respondents about a wider range of ES than is typical, and examines how ecological worldviews influence the perceived importance of ES. Respondents rated regional provision of drinking and surface water quality, clean lakes and rivers for wildlife, and a reliable supply of drinking and surface water most important. Those with a stronger ecological worldview tended to rate natural areas and processes as more important and agricultural products as less important than respondents with a more anthropocentric worldview. Perceived importance of various ES was also predicted by other individual-level factors relating to livelihood, outdoor recreation, and proximity to lakes, forests and agriculture. For example, respondents with livelihoods dependent on agriculture rated agricultural products and rural character highly. These findings bolster the case for more context-specific assessments of public importance ratings for environmental benefits to inform planning and management.},
	keywords = {agriculture, ecosystem services, New Ecological Paradigm, Urban, Water},
	isbn = {0169-2046},
	doi = {10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103768},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204619305869},
	author = {Wardropper, C.B. and Mase, A.S. and Qiu, J. and Kohl, P. and Booth, E.G. and Rissman, A.R.}
}
@article {185,
	title = {Comparing the effects of climate and land use on surface water quality using future watershed scenarios},
	journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
	volume = {693},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019/11/25/},
	pages = {133484},
	abstract = {Eutrophication of freshwaters occurs in watersheds with excessive pollution of phosphorus (P). Factors that affect P cycling and transport, including climate and land use, are changing rapidly and can have legacy effects, making future freshwater quality uncertain. Focusing on the Yahara Watershed (YW) of southern Wisconsin, USA, an intensive agricultural landscape, we explored the relative influence of land use and climate on three indicators of water quality over a span of 57 years (2014{\textendash}2070). The indicators included watershed-averaged P yield from the land surface, direct drainage P loads to a lake, and average summertime lake P concentration. Using biophysical model simulations of future watershed scenarios, we found that climate exerted a stronger influence than land use on all three indicators, yet land use had an important role in influencing long term outcomes for each. Variations in P yield due to land use exceeded those due to climate in 36 of 57 years, whereas variations in load and lake total P concentration due to climate exceeded those due to land use in 54 of 57 years, and 52 of 57 years, respectively. The effect of land use was thus strongest for P yield off the landscape and attenuated in the stream and lake aquatic systems where the influence of weather variability was greater. Overall these findings underscore the dominant role of climate in driving inter-annual nutrient fluxes within the hydrologic network and suggest a challenge for land use to influence water quality within streams and lakes over timescales less than a decade. Over longer timescales, reducing applications of P throughout the watershed was an effective management strategy under all four climates investigated, even during decades with wetter conditions and more frequent extreme precipitation events.},
	keywords = {climate, land use, Manure, phosphorus, Surface water quality, Watershed},
	isbn = {0048-9697},
	doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.07.290},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719334047},
	author = {Motew, Melissa and Chen, Xi and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Booth, Eric G. and Seifert, Jenny and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Loheide, Steven P. and Turner, Monica G. and Zipper, Samuel C. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {184,
	title = {Management of minimum lake levels and impacts on flood mitigation: A case study of the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {577},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019/10/01/},
	abstract = {Lake level regulation is commonly used to manage water resources and mitigate flood risk in watersheds with linked river{\textendash}lake systems. In this study, we first assess exposure, in terms of both population and land area, to flooding impacts in the Yahara Watershed{\textquoteright}s chain of four lakes in southern Wisconsin as affected by minimum lake level management. A flooding exposure assessment shows that the areas surrounding the upstream lakes, Mendota and Monona, have dense urban areas with high populations that are exposed to flooding; Waubesa has low elevations along its lakeshore, resulting in a large potential flooding area; and the most downstream lake, Kegonsa, has a large area of surrounding cropland that is exposed to flooding but impacts a limited population. We then use a linked modeling framework of a land surface model (Agro-IBIS) and a hydrologic-routing model (THMB) to simulate daily lake level over a study period of 1994{\textendash}2013 in the Yahara Watershed with different minimum lake level management strategies. Modeling results show that the peak lake levels and corresponding exposed land area and population to flooding will decrease under a lower target minimum lake level. However, at the same time, the number of days that the lake level is below winter minimum will increase, which may adversely affect ecosystem health. In addition, our sensitivity analysis indicates that reducing target minimum lake levels will help mitigate flood risk in terms of both flood magnitude and frequency. Nevertheless, this must be balanced against the need to maintain adequately high lake levels for ecosystem services and recreational functions of the lakes.},
	keywords = {ecosystem services, Flood exposure assessment, Hydrologic model, Lake level management},
	isbn = {0022-1694},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.123920},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169419306407},
	author = {Chen, Xi and Motew, Melissa M. and Booth, Eric G. and Zipper, Samuel C. and Loheide, Steven P. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {182,
	title = {Nonlinear groundwater influence on biophysical indicators of ecosystem services},
	journal = {Nature Sustainability},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019/04/29},
	abstract = {Groundwater is a fundamental control on biophysical processes underpinning essential ecosystem services (ES). However, interactions and feedbacks among groundwater, climate and multiple ES remain less well understood. We investigated groundwater effects on a portfolio of food, water and biogeochemical ES indicators in an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Our results show that food production, water quality and quantity, and flood control are most sensitive to groundwater, with the strongest responses under wet and dry climate extremes. Climate mediates groundwater effects, such that several ES have synergies during dry climate, but trade-offs (groundwater increased some ES but declined others) under wet climate. There is substantial spatial heterogeneity in groundwater effects on ES, which is driven primarily by water table depth (WTD) and is also sensitive to soil texture and land cover. Most ES indicators respond nonlinearly to WTD when groundwater is within a critical depth (approximately 2.5 m) of land surface, indicating that small WTD changes can have disproportionately large effects on ES in shallow groundwater areas. Within this critical WTD, increasingly shallow groundwater leads to nonlinear increases in surface flood risk, sediment erosion and phosphorus yield; nonlinear decreases in drainage to the deep vadose zone and thus groundwater recharge; and bidirectional responses of crop and grass production, carbon storage and nitrate leaching. Our study illustrates the complex role of groundwater in affecting multiple ES and highlights that strategically managing groundwater may enhance ES resilience to climate extremes in shallow groundwater settings.},
	isbn = {2398-9629},
	doi = {10.1038/s41893-019-0278-2},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0278-2},
	author = {Qiu, Jiangxiao and Zipper, Samuel C. and Motew, Melissa and Booth, Eric G. and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide, Steven P.}
}
@article {181,
	title = {Scale-dependent interactions between tree canopy cover and impervious surfaces reduce daytime urban heat during summer},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	year = {2019},
	month = {2019/03/20},
	pages = {201817561},
	abstract = {Cities worldwide are experiencing record-breaking summer air temperatures, with serious consequences for people. Increased tree cover is suggested as a climate adaptation strategy, but the amount of tree canopy cover needed to counteract higher temperatures associated with impervious surface cover is not known. We used a bicycle-mounted measurement system to quantify the interaction of canopy cover and impervious surface cover on urban air temperature. Daytime air temperature was substantially reduced with greater canopy cover (>=40\%) at the scale of a typical city block (60{\textendash}90 m), especially on the hottest days. However, reducing impervious surfaces remained important for lowering nighttime temperatures. Results can guide strategies for increasing tree cover to mitigate daytime urban heat and improve residents{\textquoteright} well-being.As cities warm and the need for climate adaptation strategies increases, a more detailed understanding of the cooling effects of land cover across a continuum of spatial scales will be necessary to guide management decisions. We asked how tree canopy cover and impervious surface cover interact to influence daytime and nighttime summer air temperature, and how effects vary with the spatial scale at which land-cover data are analyzed (10-, 30-, 60-, and 90-m radii). A bicycle-mounted measurement system was used to sample air temperature every 5 m along 10 transects (\~{}7 km length, sampled 3{\textendash}12 times each) spanning a range of impervious and tree canopy cover (0{\textendash}100\%, each) in a midsized city in the Upper Midwest United States. Variability in daytime air temperature within the urban landscape averaged 3.5 {\textdegree}C (range, 1.1{\textendash}5.7 {\textdegree}C). Temperature decreased nonlinearly with increasing canopy cover, with the greatest cooling when canopy cover exceeded 40\%. The magnitude of daytime cooling also increased with spatial scale and was greatest at the size of a typical city block (60{\textendash}90 m). Daytime air temperature increased linearly with increasing impervious cover, but the magnitude of warming was less than the cooling associated with increased canopy cover. Variation in nighttime air temperature averaged 2.1 {\textdegree}C (range, 1.2{\textendash}3.0 {\textdegree}C), and temperature increased with impervious surface. Effects of canopy were limited at night; thus, reduction of impervious surfaces remains critical for reducing nighttime urban heat. Results suggest strategies for managing urban land-cover patterns to enhance resilience of cities to climate warming.},
	keywords = {air temperature, ecosystem services, landscape context, urban forest, urban heat island},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1817561116},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/19/1817561116.abstract},
	author = {Ziter, Carly D. and Pedersen, Eric J. and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {179,
	title = {Continuous separation of land use and climate effects on the past and future water balance},
	journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
	volume = {565},
	year = {2018},
	month = {2018/10/01/},
	pages = {106-122},
	abstract = {Understanding the combined and separate effects of climate and land use change on the water cycle is necessary to mitigate negative impacts. However, existing methodologies typically divide data into discrete (before and after) periods, implicitly representing climate and land use as step changes when in reality these changes are often gradual. Here, we introduce a new regression-based methodological framework designed to separate climate and land use effects on any hydrological flux of interest continuously through time, and estimate uncertainty in the contribution of these two drivers. We present two applications in the Yahara River Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) demonstrating how our approach can be used to understand synergistic or antagonistic relationships between land use and climate in either the past or the future: (1) historical streamflow, baseflow, and quickflow in an urbanizing subwatershed; and (2) simulated future evapotranspiration, drainage, and direct runoff from a suite of contrasting climate and land use scenarios for the entire watershed. In the historical analysis, we show that \~{}60\% of recent streamflow changes can be attributed to climate, with approximately equal contributions from quickflow and baseflow. However, our continuous method reveals that baseflow is significantly increasing through time, primarily due to land use change and potentially influenced by long-term increases in groundwater storage. In the simulation of future changes, we show that all components of the future water balance will respond more strongly to changes in climate than land use, with the largest potential land use effects on drainage. These results indicate that diverse land use change trajectories may counteract each other while the effects of climate are more homogeneous at watershed scales. Therefore, management opportunities to counteract climate change effects will likely be more effective at smaller spatial scales, where land use trajectories are unidirectional.},
	keywords = {Baseflow, Climate change, Evapotranspiration, Land use change, Streamflow, Urbanization},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.08.022},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169418306188},
	author = {Zipper, Samuel C. and Motew, Melissa and Booth, Eric G. and Chen, Xi and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Loheide II, Steven P.}
}
@article {178,
	title = {The synergistic effect of manure supply and extreme precipitation on surface water quality},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	year = {2018},
	month = {2018},
	abstract = {Over-enrichment of phosphorus (P) in agroecosystems contributes to eutrophication of surface waters. In the Midwest U.S. and elsewhere, climate change is increasing the frequency of high-intensity precipitation events, which can serve as a primary conduit of P transport. Despite uncertainty in their estimates, process-based watershed models are important tools that help characterize watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry and scale up important mechanisms affecting water quality. Using one such model developed for an agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, we conducted a 2x2 factorial experiment to test the effects of (high/low) terrestrial P supply (PSUP) and (high/low) precipitation intensity (PREC) on surface water quality. Sixty-year simulations were conducted for each of the four runs, with annual results obtained for watershed average P yield and concentration at the field scale (220m x 220m grid cells), P load and concentration at the stream scale, and summertime total P concentration (TP) in Lake Mendota. ANOVA results were generated for the 2x2 factorial design, with PSUP and PREC treated as categorical variables. The results showed a significant, positive interaction (p\&lt;0.01) between the two drivers for dissolved P concentration at the field and stream scales, and total P concentration at the field, stream, and lake scales. The synergy in dissolved P was linked to nonlinear dependencies between P stored in manure and the daily runoff to rainfall ratio. The synergistic response of dissolved P loss may have important ecological consequences because dissolved P is highly bioavailable. Overall, the results suggest that high levels of terrestrial P supplied as manure can exacerbate water quality problems in the future as the frequency of high-intensity rainfall events increases with a changing climate. Conversely, lowering terrestrial manure P supply may help improve the resilience of surface water quality to extreme events.},
	isbn = {1748-9326},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaade6},
	url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaade6},
	author = {Melissa Motew and Eric G. Booth and Stephen R. Carpenter and Xi Chen and Christopher J. Kucharik}
}
@article {175,
	title = {Effects of Root Distribution and Root Water Compensation on Simulated Water Use in Maize Influenced by Shallow Groundwater},
	journal = {Vadose Zone Journal},
	volume = {16},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017},
	abstract = {We investigated the potential impacts of shallow groundwater, root length density (RLD) distribution, and root water compensation on transpiration and net primary productivity (NPP). An agroecosystem model (AgroIBIS-VSF) that is capable of simulating variably saturated water flow was driven with hourly weather observations in southern Wisconsin over 27 yr for various RLD distributions across a continuum of groundwater depth. The results indicated that the strength of the relationship between groundwater depth and water use in the critical water table depth zone is controlled by the root structure and root water uptake (RWU) strategy. In this zone, transpiration is progressively more sensitive to the groundwater level as roots become shallower. The impact of drought on corn (Zea mays L.) lessens and corn becomes less reliant on compensated RWU capabilities as roots extend deeper. Simulations indicated that the use of the compensated RWU approach results in NPP increases of 38.1 (3.81\%), 30.8 (2.74\%), and 6.4 (0.55\%) g C m-2 yr-1 during the driest years (i.e., when growing season precipitation is below the 30th percentile of the long-term observations) for shallow, intermediate, and deep RLDs, respectively. Moreover, shallow groundwater supported RWU, and corn with a shallow RLD benefited the most from shallow groundwater, with an increase in annual transpiration of 230 mm. Our findings underscore the importance of incorporating compensatory RWU and selecting an appropriate and representative RLD for contrasting vegetation types in ecosystem models to simulate a more realistic plant response to variable climate and groundwater depth conditions.},
	doi = {10.2136/vzj2017.06.0118},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2136/vzj2017.06.0118},
	author = {Soylu, Mehmet Evren and Loheide, Steven P. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {176,
	title = {Extreme precipitation and phosphorus loads from two agricultural watersheds},
	journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {n/a - n/a},
	abstract = {Phosphorus runoff from agricultural land is a major cause of eutrophication in lakes and reservoirs. Frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are increasing in agricultural regions of the Upper Midwestern U.S., and these increases are projected to continue as climate warms. We quantified the linkage between extreme daily precipitation and extreme daily discharge, phosphorus (P) load, and P concentration for Pheasant Branch and the Yahara River, two tributaries of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, U.S.A. using the generalized Pareto distribution. Although precipitation extremes have increased since 1940, over the shorter period of stream monitoring (1994{\textendash}2015 for Pheasant Branch and 1991{\textendash}2015 for Yahara) there is no significant trend in extreme precipitation. Nonetheless a disproportionate number of extreme precipitation events (for example seven of the 11 largest 24-h events since 1901) occurred during the period of stream monitoring. Daily precipitation extremes were associated with extremes in daily discharge and P load. P load return levels increased steeply and almost linearly with precipitation on log-log axes. The trend toward more frequent and intense precipitation extremes will increase P loading and intensify the eutrophication of the lake, unless the excessive P enrichment of the watershed is reversed.},
	isbn = {1939-5590},
	doi = {10.1002/lno.10767},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/lno.10767},
	author = {Carpenter, Stephen R. and Booth, Eric G. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {154,
	title = {Flashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During a Century of Urbanization and Climate Change},
	journal = {Ecosystems},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {601 - 615},
	abstract = {Globally, ecosystem services are threatened by increasing urbanization and more variable precipitation patterns driven by climate change. However, how these drivers interact over long-time scales to affect underlying processes remains poorly understood, hindering our ability to predict their long-term consequences. Here, we use long-term data spanning nearly a century to investigate changes in hydrologic attributes for two lakes in the Upper Midwest with urbanizing watersheds. We quantified flashiness{\textemdash}the variability of runoff rate, volume, or stage-level of waterways{\textemdash}to investigate the concurrent impacts of urbanization and climate change on flashiness and flooding potential. Our results indicate that flashiness generally increased for both lakes over the period of 1916{\textendash}2013, although this overall trend consists of sub-periods of increase and decrease. Increasing impervious surface area has been the stronger driver of flashiness historically; however, our results suggest that the impact of urbanization may reach a threshold, such that saturation effects would cause large magnitude precipitation events to become a relatively stronger driver of flashiness. Increasing flashiness indicates an increase in flooding potential, documented by increases in the 10- and 100-year flood threshold levels as large as 30~cm. Since flashiness is strongly related to the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, the methodology and results presented here provide a unique approach to gain insight into how non-linear interactions between global change drivers, at multiple time scales, impact the simultaneous provision of multiple services.},
	isbn = {1435-0629},
	doi = {10.1007/s10021-016-0042-7},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0042-7},
	author = {Usinowicz, Jacob and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Kamarainen, Amy}
}
@article {164,
	title = {The Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed},
	journal = {Ecosystems},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017//},
	pages = {1 - 15},
	abstract = {Decades of fertilizer and manure applications have led to a buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and sediments, commonly referred to as legacy P. Legacy P can provide a long-term source of P to surface waters where it causes eutrophication. Using a suite of numerical models, we investigated the influence of legacy P on water quality in the Yahara Watershed of southern Wisconsin, USA. The suite included Agro-IBIS, a terrestrial ecosystem model; THMB, a hydrologic and nutrient routing model; and the Yahara Water Quality Model which estimates water quality indicators in the Yahara chain of lakes. Using five alternative scenarios of antecedent P storage (legacy P) in soils and channels under historical climate conditions, we simulated outcomes of P yield from the landscape, lake P loading, and three lake water quality indicators. Legacy P had a significant effect on lake loads and water quality. Across the five scenarios for Lake Mendota, the largest and most upstream lake, average P yield (kg~ha-1) varied by -41 to +22\%, P load (kg~y-1) by -35 to +14\%, summer total P (TP) concentration (mg~l-1) by -25 to +12\%, Secchi depth (m) by -7 to +3\%, and the probability of hypereutrophy by -67 to +34\%, relative to baseline conditions. The minimum storage scenario showed that a 35\% reduction in present-day loads to Lake Mendota corresponded with a 25\% reduction in summer TP and smaller reductions in the downstream lakes. Water quality was more vulnerable to heavy rainfall events at higher amounts of P storage and less so at lower amounts. Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with climate change; therefore, water quality could be protected by decreasing P reserves.},
	isbn = {1435-0629},
	doi = {10.1007/s10021-017-0125-0},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0125-0},
	author = {Motew, Melissa and Chen, Xi and Booth, Eric G. and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Pinkas, Pavel and Zipper, Samuel C. and Loheide, Steven P. and Donner, Simon D. and Tsuruta, Kai and Vadas, Peter A. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {173,
	title = {Public support for carrot, stick, and no-government water quality policies},
	journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy},
	volume = {76},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017/10//},
	pages = {82 - 89},
	abstract = {Public support for environmental policy provides an important foundation for democratic governance. Numerous policy innovations may improve nonpoint source pollution, but little research has examined which types of individuals are likely to support various runoff reduction policies. We conducted a household mail survey of 1136 residents in southern Wisconsin. In general, residents were more likely to support water quality policies if they were communitarians, egalitarians, concerned about water pollution, and perceived water quality as poor. The majority of respondents somewhat to strongly supported all of the seven proposed water quality policies, but opposed relying on voluntary action without government involvement on farms. Residents had higher support for incentives and market-based approaches (carrot policies) than regulation and taxes (stick policies). A more complicated pattern emerged in within-subject comparisons of residents{\textquoteright} views of carrot and stick approaches. Stick approaches polarized respondents by decreasing support among people with individualistic worldviews, while slightly increasing support among people with communitarian worldviews. Residents with an agricultural occupation were more likely to support voluntary, non-governmental approaches for reducing agricultural runoff, and were also more likely to support regulation for reducing urban lawn runoff. This research highlights the dominant role of cultural worldviews and the secondary roles of water pollution concern, perceived water quality, and self-interest in explaining support for diverse policies to reduce nonpoint source pollution.},
	keywords = {Cultural cognition, Environmental policy, Nonpoint source pollution, Policy support, Public preferences, Water quality policy},
	isbn = {1462-9011},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2017.04.012},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901116307407},
	author = {Rissman, Adena R. and Kohl, Patrice A. and Wardropper, Chloe B.}
}
@article {172,
	title = {Quantifying indirect groundwater-mediated effects of urbanization on agroecosystem productivity using MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a complete critical zone model},
	journal = {Ecological Modeling},
	volume = {359},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017/9/10/},
	pages = {201 - 219},
	abstract = {Sustainably accommodating future population growth and meeting global food requirements requires understanding feedbacks between ecosystems and belowground hydrological processes. Here, we introduce MODFLOW-AgroIBIS (MAGI), a new dynamic ecosystem model including groundwater flow, and use MAGI to explore the indirect impacts of land use change (urbanization) on landscape-scale agroecosystem productivity (corn yield). We quantify the degree to which urbanization can indirectly impact yield in surrounding areas by changing the amount of groundwater recharge locally and the water table dynamics at landscape scales. We find that urbanization can cause increases or decreases in yield elsewhere, with changes up to approximately +/- 40\% under the conditions simulated due entirely to altered groundwater-land surface interactions. Our results indicate that land use change in upland areas has the largest impact on water table depth over the landscape. However, there is a spatial mismatch between areas with the largest water table response to urbanization elsewhere (upland areas) and locations with the strongest yield response to urbanization elsewhere (midslope areas). This mismatch arises from differences in baseline water table depth prior to urbanization. Yield response to urbanization in lowland areas is relatively localized despite large changes to the vertical water balance due to stabilizing ecohydrological feedbacks between root water uptake and lateral groundwater flow. These results demonstrate that hydrological impacts of land use change can propagate through subsurface flow to indirectly impact surrounding ecosystems, and these subsurface connections should be considered when planning land use at a landscape scale to avoid negative outcomes associated with land use change.},
	keywords = {agroecosystem modeling, Dynamic vegetation models, Groundwater recharge, Groundwater-land surface coupling, Land use change, Urbanization},
	isbn = {0304-3800},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.06.002},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380017300789},
	author = {Zipper, Samuel C. and Soylu, Mehmet Evren and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide II, Steven P.}
}
@article {162,
	title = {Urban heat island-induced increases in evapotranspirative demand},
	journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017},
	abstract = {Although the importance of vegetation in mitigating the urban heat island (UHI) is known, the impacts of UHI-induced changes in micrometeorological conditions on vegetation are not well understood. Here we show that plant water requirements are significantly higher in urban areas compared to rural areas surrounding Madison, WI, driven by increased air temperature with minimal effects of decreased air moisture content. Local increases in impervious cover are strongly associated with increased evapotranspirative demand in a consistent manner across years, with most increases caused by elevated temperatures during the growing season rather than changes in changes in growing season length. Potential evapotranspiration is up to 10\% higher due to the UHI, potentially mitigating changes to the water and energy balances caused by urbanization. Our results indicate that local-scale land cover decisions (increases in impervious cover) can significantly impact evapotranspirative demand, with likely implications for water and carbon cycling in urban ecosystems.},
	keywords = {ecohydrology, plant water use, reference evapotranspiration, urban climatology, urban ecology, urban heat island, Urban systems, Water supply},
	isbn = {1944-8007},
	doi = {10.1002/2016GL072190},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072190},
	author = {Zipper, Samuel C. and Schatz, Jason and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide, Steven P.}
}
@article {127,
	title = {Biodiversity and ecosystem services require IPBES to take novel approach to scenarios},
	journal = {Sustainability Science},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	pages = {1 - 5},
	abstract = {What does the future hold for the world{\textquoteright}s ecosystems and benefits that people obtain from them? While the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) has identified the development of scenarios as a key to helping decision makers identify potential impacts of different policy options, it currently lacks a long-term scenario strategy. IPBES will decide how it will approach scenarios at its plenary meeting on 22{\textendash}28 February 2016, in Kuala Lumpur. IPBES now needs to decide whether it should create new scenarios that better explore ecosystem services and biodiversity dynamics. For IPBES to capture the social-ecological dynamics of biodiversity and ecosystem services, it is essential to engage with the great diversity of local contexts, while also including the global tele-coupling among local places. We present and compare three alternative scenario strategies that IPBES could use and then suggest a bottom-up, cross-scale scenario strategy to improve the policy relevance of future IPBES assessments. We propose five concrete steps as part of an effective, long term scenario development process for IPBES in cooperation with the scientific community.},
	isbn = {1862-4057},
	doi = {10.1007/s11625-016-0354-8},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0354-8},
	author = {Kok, Marcel T. J. and Kok, Kasper and Peterson, Garry D. and Hill, Rosemary and Agard, John and Carpenter, Stephen R.}
}
@article {150,
	title = {Drought effects on US maize and soybean production: spatiotemporal patterns and historical changes},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	volume = {11},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	pages = {094021},
	abstract = {Maximizing agricultural production on existing cropland is one pillar of meeting future global foodsecurity needs. To close crop yield gaps, it is critical to understand how climate extremes such asdrought impact yield. Here, we use gridded, daily meteorological data and county-level annual yielddata to quantify meteorological drought sensitivity of US maize and soybean production from 1958 to2007. Meteorological drought negatively affects crop yield over most US crop-producing areas, andyield is most sensitive to short-term (1{\textendash}3 month) droughts during critical development periods fromJuly to August. While meteorological drought is associated with 13\% of overall yield variability,substantial spatial variability in drought effects and sensitivity exists, with central andsoutheastern US becoming increasingly sensitive to drought over time. Our study illustratesfine-scale spatiotemporal patterns of drought effects, highlighting where variability in cropproduction is most strongly associated with drought, and suggests that management strategies thatbuffer against short-term water stress may be most effective at sustaining long-term cropproductivity.},
	keywords = {agriculture, Climate change, drought, food production, SPEI, yield variability},
	isbn = {1748-9326},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094021},
	url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=9/a=094021},
	author = {Samuel C Zipper and Jiangxiao Qiu and Christopher J Kucharik}
}
@article {147,
	title = {From qualitative to quantitative environmental scenarios: Translating storylines into biophysical modeling inputs at the watershed scale},
	journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
	volume = {85},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {80 - 97},
	abstract = {Scenarios are increasingly used for envisioning future social-ecological changes and consequences for human well-being. One approach integrates qualitative storylines and biophysical models to explore potential futures quantitatively and maximize public engagement. However, this integration process is challenging and sometimes oversimplified. Using the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) as a case study, we present a transparent and reproducible roadmap to develop spatiotemporally explicit biophysical inputs [climate, land use/cover (LULC), and nutrients] that are consistent with scenario narratives and can be linked to a process-based biophysical modeling suite to simulate long-term dynamics of a watershed and a range of ecosystem services. Our transferrable approach produces daily weather inputs by combining climate model projections and a stochastic weather generator, annual narrative-based watershed-scale LULC distributed spatially using transition rules, and annual manure and fertilizer (nitrogen and phosphorus) inputs based on current farm and livestock data that are consistent with each scenario narrative.},
	keywords = {Biophysical modeling, Climate change, Land use change, scenarios, Social-ecological systems, Watershed},
	isbn = {1364-8152},
	doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.08.008},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815216304935},
	author = {Booth, Eric G. and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Schatz, Jason and Chen, Xi and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide II, Steven P. and Motew, Melissa M. and Seifert, Jenny M. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {146,
	title = {Is groundwater recharge always serving us well? Water supply provisioning, crop production, and flood attenuation in conflict in Wisconsin, USA},
	journal = {Ecosystem Services},
	volume = {21, Part A},
	year = {2016},
	pages = {153 - 165},
	abstract = {Ecosystem service mapping can provide an avenue for making effective land management decisions in a holistic way. However, mapped quantities do not always appropriately represent the ecosystem services that are used by humans. We highlight this issue with a case study of groundwater recharge, water supply, flooding, and agricultural production in an urbanizing agricultural watershed in southern Wisconsin, USA. Groundwater recharge is typically treated as a beneficial ecosystem service or service indicator whose value to humans monotonically increases with the amount of recharge. While appropriate from a water supply perspective, this relationship breaks down when excess groundwater recharge leads to flooding and crop damage. We suggest moving beyond groundwater recharge as a stand-alone ecosystem service, and instead propose that observations and biophysical models should be used to quantify the final service humans receive from groundwater (e.g. reliability of water supply from a municipal well). Integration of such derived, point-based metrics with other ecosystem services that are more easily represented at the landscape scale remains a challenge for regional ecosystem service inventories and analyses.},
	keywords = {Crop production, Flooding, Groundwater, Hydrologic services, Recharge, Water supply},
	isbn = {2212-0416},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.08.007},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212041616302315},
	author = {Booth, Eric G. and Zipper, Samuel C. and Loheide II, Steven P. and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {131,
	title = {Nitrogen Fertilization Effects on Productivity and Nitrogen Loss in Three Grass-Based Perennial Bioenergy Cropping Systems},
	journal = {PLoS ONE},
	volume = {11},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016/03/18},
	pages = {e0151919 - },
	abstract = {<p>Nitrogen (N) fertilization can greatly improve plant productivity but needs to be carefully managed to avoid harmful environmental impacts. Nutrient management guidelines aimed at reducing harmful forms of N loss such as nitrous oxide (N<sub>2</sub>O) emissions and nitrate (NO<sub>3</sub><sup>-</sup>) leaching have been tailored for many cropping systems. The developing bioenergy industry is likely to make use of novel cropping systems, such as polycultures of perennial species, for which we have limited nutrient management experience. We studied how a switchgrass (<italic>Panicum virgatum</italic>) monoculture, a 5-species native grass mixture and an 18-species restored prairie responded to annual fertilizer applications of 56 kg N ha<sup>-1</sup> in a field-scale agronomic trial in south-central Wisconsin over a 2-year period. We observed greater fertilizer-induced N<sub>2</sub>O emissions and sub-rooting zone NO<sub>3</sub><sup>-</sup> concentrations in the switchgrass monoculture than in either polyculture. Fertilization increased aboveground net primary productivity in the polycultures, but not in the switchgrass monoculture. Switchgrass was generally more productive, while the two polycultures did not differ from each other in productivity or N loss. Our results highlight differences between polycultures and a switchgrass monoculture in responding to N fertilization.</p>},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371\%2Fjournal.pone.0151919},
	author = {Duran, Brianna E. L. and Duncan, David S. and Oates, Lawrence G. and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Jackson, Randall D.}
}
@article {128,
	title = {Urban heat island effects on growing seasons and heating and cooling degree days in Madison, Wisconsin USA},
	journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	abstract = {Urban areas tend to be warmer than their rural surroundings, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. UHIs are nearly always described in terms of temperature. However, UHIs can also be described using derived climate indices, including growing season length, growing degree days (GDDs), and heating and cooling degree days, which may have more direct ecological and economic significance than temperature alone. To characterize UHI effects on these basic climate parameters, we used over 3 years of continuously collected temperature data from up to 150 locations in and around Madison, Wisconsin, USA, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. Compared to rural areas, Madison{\textquoteright}s UHI extended the freeze-free season by several weeks each year. However, it only shifted the onset of spring and fall (represented by 10-day moving average temperature crossing seasonal thresholds) by 1 day or less in spring and by a few days to a week in fall. The different effects on freeze dates versus running-mean temperatures were primarily because the UHI could affect temperatures during individual freeze events much more than it could influence regional seasonal temperature trends. Urban effects on the meteorological growing season were nearly always greater in fall than in spring. We hypothesize that this is due to seasonal differences in sub-surface temperatures, with urban and rural areas presumably having more uniform sub-surface temperatures in spring after being frozen throughout the winter, contributing to weaker UHI effects in spring than in fall. In terms of degree days, densely built urban areas averaged 14\% (209) more GDDs, 25\% (117) more cooling degree days, and 6\% (284) fewer heating degree days than rural areas, indicating that the UHI could have significant impacts on energy consumption in Madison.},
	keywords = {cooling degree days, energy, freeze dates, growing degree days, growing season, heating degree days, urban climate, urban heat island},
	isbn = {1097-0088},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4675},
	author = {Schatz, Jason and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {137,
	title = {Urban heat island impacts on plant phenology: intra-urban variability and response to land cover},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	volume = {11},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	pages = {054023},
	abstract = {Despite documented intra-urban heterogeneity in the urban heat island (UHI) effect, little is knownabout spatial or temporal variability in plant response to the UHI. Using an automated temperaturesensor network in conjunction with Landsat-derived remotely sensed estimates of start/end of thegrowing season, we investigate the impacts of the UHI on plant phenology in the city of Madison WI(USA) for the 2012{\textendash}2014 growing seasons. Median urban growing season length (GSL) estimated fromtemperature sensors is \~{}5 d longer than surrounding rural areas, and UHI impacts on GSL arerelatively consistent from year-to-year. Parks within urban areas experience a subdued expression ofGSL lengthening resulting from interactions between the UHI and a park cool island effect. Acrossall growing seasons, impervious cover in the area surrounding each temperature sensor explains >50\%of observed variability in phenology. Comparisons between long-term estimates of annual meanphenological timing, derived from remote sensing, and temperature-based estimates of individualgrowing seasons show no relationship at the individual sensor level. The magnitude of disagreementbetween temperature-based and remotely sensed phenology is a function of impervious and grass coversurrounding the sensor, suggesting that realized GSL is controlled by both local land cover andmicrometeorological conditions.},
	keywords = {land surface phenology, remote sensing, sensor network, urban climate, urban ecology, urban heat island, vegetation phenology},
	isbn = {1748-9326},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054023},
	url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/11/i=5/a=054023},
	author = {Samuel C Zipper and Jason Schatz and Aditya Singh and Christopher J Kucharik and Philip A Townsend and Steven P Loheide}
}
@article {93,
	title = {Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems},
	journal = {Science},
	volume = {347},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015/03/20},
	pages = {1317 - 1319},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aaa3769},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6228/1317.short},
	author = {Scheffer, M. and Barrett, S. and Carpenter, S. R. and Folke, C. and Green, A. J. and Holmgren, M. and Hughes, T. P. and Kosten, S. and van de Leemput, I. A. and Nepstad, D. C. and van Nes, E. H. and Peeters, E. T. H. M. and Walker, B.}
}
@article {100,
	title = {Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA},
	journal = {Ecology and Society},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015},
	abstract = {Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km\&$\#$178;, population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed\&$\#$8217;s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010\&$\#$8211;2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.},
	keywords = {alternative futures, climate, ecosystem services, eutrophication, governance, lakes, land-use change, phosphorus, scenarios},
	doi = {10.5751/ES-07433-200210},
	url = {http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art10/},
	author = {Carpenter, Stephen R. and Booth, Eric G. and Gillon, Sean and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide, Steven and Mase, Amber S. and Motew, Melissa and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Rissman, Adena R. and Seifert, Jenny and Soylu, Evren and Turner, Monica and Wardropper, Chloe B.}
}
@article {124,
	title = {Urban climate effects on extreme temperatures in Madison, Wisconsin, USA},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	volume = {10},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015},
	pages = {094024},
	abstract = {As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme heat, cities and their urban heatisland (UHI) effects are growing, as are the urban populations encountering them. These mutuallyreinforcing trends present a growing risk for urban populations. However, we have limitedunderstanding of urban climates during extreme temperature episodes, when additional heat from theUHI may be most consequential. We observed a historically hot summer and historically cold winterusing an array of up to 150 temperature and relative humidity sensors in and around Madison,Wisconsin, an urban area of population 402 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape ofagriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. In the summer of 2012 (third hottest since 1869),Madison{\textquoteright}s urban areas experienced up to twice as many hours ⩾32.2 {\textdegree}C (90 {\textdegree}F), mean July T MAX up to1.8 {\textdegree}C higher, and mean July T MIN up to 5.3 {\textdegree}C higher than rural areas. During a record settingheat wave, dense urban areas spent over four consecutive nights above the National Weather Servicenighttime heat stress threshold of 26.7 {\textdegree}C (80 {\textdegree}F), while rural areas fell below 26.7 {\textdegree}C nearlyevery night. In the winter of 2013{\textendash}14 (coldest in 35 years), Madison{\textquoteright}s most densely built urbanareas experienced up to 40\% fewer hours ⩽-17.8 {\textdegree}C (0 {\textdegree}F), mean January T MAX up to 1 {\textdegree}C higher, andmean January T MIN up to 3 {\textdegree}C higher than rural areas. Spatially, the UHI tended to be most intensein areas with higher population densities. Temporally, both daytime and nighttime UHIs tended to beslightly more intense during more-extreme heat days compared to average summer days. These resultshelp us understand the climates for which cities must prepare in a warming, urbanizing world.},
	isbn = {1748-9326},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094024},
	url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/10/i=9/a=094024},
	author = {Schatz, Jason and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {96,
	title = {Using a Simple Apparatus to Measure Direct and Diffuse Photosynthetically Active Radiation at Remote Locations},
	journal = {PLoS ONE},
	volume = {10},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015/02/10},
	pages = {e0115633 - },
	abstract = {Plant canopy interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) drives carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>), water and energy cycling in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. Quantifying intercepted PAR requires accurate measurements of total incident PAR above canopies and direct beam and diffuse PAR components. While some regional data sets include these data, e.g. from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program sites, they are not often applicable to local research sites because of the variable nature (spatial and temporal) of environmental variables that influence incoming PAR. Currently available instrumentation that measures diffuse and direct beam radiation separately can be cost prohibitive and require frequent adjustments. Alternatively, generalized empirical relationships that relate atmospheric variables and radiation components can be used but require assumptions that increase the potential for error. Our goal here was to construct and test a cheaper, highly portable instrument alternative that could be used at remote field sites to measure total, diffuse and direct beam PAR for extended time periods without supervision. The apparatus tested here uses a fabricated, solar powered rotating shadowband and other commercially available parts to collect continuous hourly PAR data. Measurements of total incident PAR had nearly a one-to-one relationship with total incident radiation measurements taken at the same research site by an unobstructed point quantum sensor. Additionally, measurements of diffuse PAR compared favorably with modeled estimates from previously published data, but displayed significant differences that were attributed to the important influence of rapidly changing local environmental conditions. The cost of the system is about 50\% less than comparable commercially available systems that require periodic, but not continual adjustments. Overall, the data produced using this apparatus indicates that this instrumentation has the potential to support ecological research via a relatively inexpensive method to collect continuous measurements of total, direct beam and diffuse PAR in remote locations.},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0115633},
	author = {Cruse, Michael J. and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Norman, John M.}
}
@article {78,
	title = {Extreme daily loads: role in annual phosphorus input to a north temperate lake},
	journal = {Aquatic Sciences},
	year = {2014},
	month = {2014/08/02},
	pages = {1-9},
	abstract = {Changes in fertilizer use, manure management or precipitation may alter the frequency of episodes of high nutrient runoff and thereby affect annual nutrient loads and total nutrient concentrations of lakes. We developed an empirical, stochastic model for daily P loads and used the model to project annual P loads and summer total P concentrations in Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA. Daily P loads (8,250 daily observations) were fit closely by a three-part gamma distribution composed of days with low, intermediate, and high P loads. High P load days happen when heavy rains or snowmelt occur on soil with abundant P, often as a result of manure or inorganic fertilizer application. In Lake Mendota, on average 29 days per year accounted for 74 \% of the annual load. Simulations showed that median annual P loads increased linearly with the frequency of high P load days. However, the upper quantiles of the annual P load distribution increased more steeply than the median. Increases in the number of high P load days per year also increased summer concentrations of P in the lake. Thus increases in the frequency of high P load days due to larger precipitation events or increased application of fertilizers and manure may worsen widespread problems caused by P pollution of lakes in this agricultural watershed.},
	keywords = {Daily load extremes, Lake, Phosphorus load, Water quality},
	isbn = {1015-1621},
	doi = {10.1007/s00027-014-0364-5},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00027-014-0364-5},
	author = {Carpenter, Stephen R and Booth, Eric G and Kucharik, Christopher J and Lathrop, Richard C}
}
@article {72,
	title = {Influence of groundwater on plant water use and productivity: Development of an integrated ecosystem - Variably saturated soil water flow model},
	journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
	volume = {189},
	year = {2014},
	pages = {198-210},
	abstract = {Plant physiology influences the energy and water balance of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. However, impacts of soil water dynamics on plants in shallow groundwater environments are not completely understood, partially due to the limited ability of current models to simulate groundwater vegetation interactions. In this study, we analyzed the influence of groundwater-induced soil temperature change on plant phenology, and the impact of variable depth to the water table on the net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration and stomatal response, by integrating an advanced dynamic agroecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) and a variably saturated soil water flow model (Hydrus-1D) into a single framework. The model is first evaluated using field observations of soil moisture and temperature as well as annual NPP and weekly LAI measurements collected from three replicated maize plots at the Arlington Agricultural Research Station near Arlington, Wisconsin, USA. Comparisons showed reasonable agreement for each dataset without site-specific prior calibration. We then simulated the influence of groundwater on plant physiological responses as well as the energy, carbon, and water balance at the land surface. The model sensitivity analyses indicated that physiological functions of plants are sensitive to water table depth, and the aridity of a particular production site. For example, shallow groundwater limits water stress during dry years, helping to mitigate decreased NPP associated with water deficits. However, if the water table is persistently too close to the surface during the growing season, photosynthesis is negatively affected through oxygen stress on roots regardless of the aridity. To further explore factors influencing plant physiology other than oxygen stress, we designed simulations without oxygen stress effects. Results showed that under shallow groundwater conditions: (1) higher leaf level relative humidity causes higher water use efficiency because of a lower vapor pressure deficit between the leaf and atmosphere: (2) due to delayed corn plant emergence caused by cooler springtime soil temperatures reduces NPP. Our results suggest that models designed to more mechanistically simulate groundwater vegetation interactions may lead to a more realistic representation of feedbacks between plant phenology, soil moisture, temperature, anoxia, NPP and ET. However, until critical data are collected to assess simulated feedbacks and advance our understanding of groundwater vegetation interactions, model confidence will likely remain somewhat limited. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {0168-1923},
	doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.019},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.01.019},
	author = {Soylu, M. E. and Kucharik, C. J. and Loheide, S. P.}
}
@article {85,
	title = {Seasonality of the Urban Heat Island Effect in Madison, Wisconsin},
	journal = {Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
	volume = {53},
	year = {2014},
	month = {2014/10/01},
	pages = {2371 - 2386},
	abstract = {AbstractSpatial and temporal variation in the urban heat island (UHI) effect from March 2012 through October 2013 was characterized using continuous temperature measurements from an array of up to 151 fixed sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 407 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. Spatially, the density of the built environment was the primary driver of temperature patterns, with local modifying effects of lake proximity and topographic relief. Temporally, wind speed, cloud cover, relative humidity, soil moisture, and snow all influenced UHI intensity, although the magnitude and significance of their effects varied by season and time of day. Seasonally, UHI intensities tended to be higher during the warmer summer months and lower during the colder months. Seasonal trends in monthly average wind speed and cloud cover tracked annual trends in UHI intensity, with clearer, calmer conditions that are conducive to the stronger UHIs being more common during the summer. However, clear, calm summer nights still had higher UHI intensities than clear, calm winter nights, indicating that some background factor, such as vegetation, shifted baseline UHI intensities throughout the year. The authors propose that regional vegetation and snow-cover conditions set seasonal baselines for UHI intensity and that factors like wind and clouds modified daily UHI intensity around that baseline.AbstractSpatial and temporal variation in the urban heat island (UHI) effect from March 2012 through October 2013 was characterized using continuous temperature measurements from an array of up to 151 fixed sensors in and around Madison, Wisconsin, an urban area of population 407 000 surrounded by lakes and a rural landscape of agriculture, forests, wetlands, and grasslands. Spatially, the density of the built environment was the primary driver of temperature patterns, with local modifying effects of lake proximity and topographic relief. Temporally, wind speed, cloud cover, relative humidity, soil moisture, and snow all influenced UHI intensity, although the magnitude and significance of their effects varied by season and time of day. Seasonally, UHI intensities tended to be higher during the warmer summer months and lower during the colder months. Seasonal trends in monthly average wind speed and cloud cover tracked annual trends in UHI intensity, with clearer, calmer conditions that are conducive to the stronger UHIs being more common during the summer. However, clear, calm summer nights still had higher UHI intensities than clear, calm winter nights, indicating that some background factor, such as vegetation, shifted baseline UHI intensities throughout the year. The authors propose that regional vegetation and snow-cover conditions set seasonal baselines for UHI intensity and that factors like wind and clouds modified daily UHI intensity around that baseline.},
	isbn = {1558-8424},
	doi = {10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0107.1},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0107.1},
	author = {Schatz, Jason and Kucharik, Christopher J.}
}
@article {70,
	title = {Soil Moisture Regime and Land Use History Drive Regional Differences in Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Storage Across Southern Wisconsin},
	journal = {Soil Science},
	volume = {178},
	year = {2013},
	pages = {486-495},
	abstract = {Agricultural land management can decrease soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (N) storage and adversely affect soil structure, but the actual impact can be confounded by the soil moisture regime. Wet or poorly drained soils tend to slow the process of organic matter oxidation and promote C storage, whereas comparatively drier or well-drained soils tend to promote organic matter turnover and C release. Therefore, the effects of land management, time since last disturbance, and soil moisture regime on near-surface soil bulk density (BD), SOC and total N (TN), and soil C:N ratios were evaluated across southern Wisconsin using a database generated during a 7-year period. Soil samples from the top 25 cm were collected from 169 sites consisting of prairie restorations and remnant prairies, Conservation Reserve Program land, agriculture (row crops and pasture), wetlands, and forests. Across all sites, soils with a udic soil moisture regime had lower (35\%) native SOC, lower (31\%) TN, greater (47\%) BD, and lower (5.4\%) soil C:N ratio than those with an aquic moisture regime. Agricultural (6.0 kg m(-2)) and restoration (5.8 kg m(-2)) sites had 30 and 32.3\%, respectively, less SOC than native sites on udic soils, but agricultural (9.0 kg m(-2)) and restoration (8.8 kg m(-2)) sites with an aquic moisture regime shared similar SOC values with native sites under both udic (8.6 kg m(-2)) and aquic (10.6 kg m(-2)) moisture regimes. A 24.8\% loss of native SOC attributed to agricultural land management occurred on aquic soils compared with a 33.6\% loss on udic soils, and those effects were still present in prairie restorations. An apparent buffering capacity of wetter aquic soils on losses of C and N needs to be considered in quantifying soil C and N sequestration potential.},
	issn = {0038-075X},
	doi = {10.1097/ss.0000000000000015},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/ss.0000000000000015},
	author = {Kucharik, C. J. and Brye, K. R.}
}
@article {68,
	title = {General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events},
	journal = {Sustainability},
	volume = {4},
	year = {2012},
	pages = {3248-3259},
	abstract = {Resilience to specified kinds of disasters is an active area of research and practice. However, rare or unprecedented disturbances that are unusually intense or extensive require a more broad-spectrum type of resilience. General resilience is the capacity of social-ecological systems to adapt or transform in response to unfamiliar, unexpected and extreme shocks. Conditions that enable general resilience include diversity, modularity, openness, reserves, feedbacks, nestedness, monitoring, leadership, and trust. Processes for building general resilience are an emerging and crucially important area of research.},
	isbn = {2071-1050},
	doi = {10.3390/su4123248},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su4123248},
	author = {Carpenter, S. R. and Arrow, K. J. and Barrett, S. and Biggs, R. and Brock, W. A. and Crepin, A. S. and Engstrom, G. and Folke, C. and Hughes, T. P. and Kautsky, N. and Li, C. Z. and McCarney, G. and Meng, K. and Maler, K. G. and Polasky, S. and Scheffer, M. and Shogren, J. and Sterner, T. and Vincent, J. R. and Walker, B. and Xepapadeas, A. and de Zeeuw, A.}
}
