@article {180,
	title = {Innovation in Outcomes-Based Water Quality Policy: A Case Study from the Yahara Watershed, Wisconsin, USA},
	journal = {Case Studies in the Environment},
	year = {2018},
	month = {2018/01/01},
	abstract = {This case examines the risks and opportunities for stakeholders involved in an experimental water quality management program in Wisconsin, USA. This program pays for pounds of pollution reduced through soil conservation practices on farm fields and other high-runoff areas across the landscape{\textemdash}nonpoint sources of pollution{\textemdash}by redirecting funds from the sewerage plant and municipal point sources of pollution. Uncertain monitoring and modeling of pollution sources used for program payments and accountability create perceived and real risks to program participants and the environment, including the threat of regulatory enforcement, lost revenue, and failure to achieve environmental outcomes. On the other hand, in this case study, regulatory flexibility also opened a space for stakeholder dialog and programmatic cooperation that could lead to more adaptive and locally acceptable watershed pollution control in the future.},
	doi = {10.1525/cse.2018.001222},
	url = {http://cse.ucpress.edu/content/early/2018/08/20/cse.2018.001222.abstract},
	author = {Wardropper, Chloe and Gillon, Sean and Rissman, Adena}
}
@article {157,
	title = {Annual precipitation regulates spatial and temporal drivers of lake water clarity},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	volume = {27},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {632 - 643},
	abstract = {Understanding how and why lakes vary and respond to different drivers through time and space is needed to understand, predict, and manage freshwater quality in an era of rapidly changing land use and climate. Water clarity regulates many characteristics of aquatic ecosystems and is responsive to watershed features, making it a sentinel of environmental change. However, whether precipitation alters the relative importance of features that influence lake water clarity or the spatial scales at which they operate is unknown. We used a dataset of thousands of north temperate lakes and asked: (1) How does water clarity differ between a very wet versus dry year? (2) Does the relative importance of different watershed features, or the spatial extent at which they are measured, vary between wet and dry years? (3) What lake and watershed characteristics regulate long-term water clarity trends? Among lakes, water clarity was reduced and less variable in the wet year than in the dry year; furthermore, water clarity was reduced much more in high-clarity lakes during the wet year than in low-clarity lakes. Climate, land use/land cover, and lake morphometry explained most variance in clarity among lakes in both years, but the spatial scales at which some features were important differed between the dry and wet years. Watershed percent agriculture was most important in the dry year, whereas riparian zone percent agriculture (around each lake and upstream features) was most important in the wet year. Between 1991 and 2012, water clarity declined in 23\% of lakes and increased in only 6\% of lakes. Conductance influenced the direction of temporal trend (clarity declined in lakes with low conductance), whereas the proportion of watershed wetlands, catchment-to-lake-area ratio, and lake maximum depth interacted with antecedent precipitation. Many predictors of water clarity, such as lake depth and landscape position, are features that cannot be readily managed. Given trends of increasing precipitation, eliminating riparian zone agriculture or keeping it <10\% of area may be an effective option to maintain or improve water clarity.},
	keywords = {land use, land-water interactions, landscape ecology, precipitation, remote sensing, Water quality},
	isbn = {1939-5582},
	doi = {10.1002/eap.1471},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eap.1471},
	author = {Rose, Kevin C and Greb, Steven R. and Diebel, Matthew and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {169,
	title = {How do land-use legacies affect ecosystem services in United States cultural landscapes?},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017//},
	pages = {1 - 14},
	abstract = {Landscape-scale studies of ecosystem services (ES) have increased, but few consider land-use history. Historical land use may be especially important in cultural landscapes, producing legacies that influence ecosystem structure, function, and biota that in turn affect ES supply. Our goal was to generate a conceptual framework for understanding when land-use legacies matter for ES supply in well-studied agricultural,urban, and exurban US landscapes. We synthesized illustrative examples from published literature in which landscape legacies were demonstrated or are likely to influence ES. We suggest three related conditions in which land-use legacies are important for understanding current ES supply. (1) Intrinsically slow ecological processes govern ES supply, illustrated for soil-based and hydrologic services impaired by slowly processed pollutants. (2) Time lags between land-use change and ecosystem responses delay effects on ES supply, illustrated for biodiversity-based services that may experience an ES debt. (3) Threshold relationships exist, such that changes in ES are difficult to reverse,and legacy lock-in disconnects contemporary landscapes from ES supply, illustrated by hydrologic services. Mismatches between contemporary landscape patterns and mechanisms underpinning ES supply yield unexpected patterns of ES. Today{\textquoteright}s land-use decisions will generate tomorrow{\textquoteright}s legacies, and ES will be affected if processes underpinning ES are affected by land-use legacies. Research priorities include understanding effects of urban abandonment, new contaminants, and interactions of land-use legacies and climate change. Improved understanding of historical effects will improve management of contemporary ES, and aid in decision-making as new challenges to sustaining cultural landscapes arise.},
	keywords = {Agricultural ecosystems, Exurban ecosystems, Historical ecology, land-use change, Urban ecosystems},
	isbn = {1572-9761},
	doi = {10.1007/s10980-017-0545-4},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10980-017-0545-4},
	author = {Ziter, Carly and Graves, Rose A. and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {174,
	title = {Uncertain monitoring and modeling in a watershed nonpoint pollution program},
	journal = {Land Use Policy},
	volume = {67},
	year = {2017},
	month = {2017/9//},
	pages = {690 - 701},
	abstract = {Performance-based programs governing land use rely on environmental measurement, prediction, and assessment. Yet complex, nonlinear social and environmental change can lead to uncertainties in quantification and forecasting and create challenges for operationalizing programs. This research examines the roles that environmental monitoring and modeling uncertainty play in experimental land and water governance through an analysis of a regulatory water quality program in Wisconsin, USA. The case demonstrates how uncertainties in measurement and prediction of pollution runoff shape program design and participant perceptions. We draw on interviews, a survey, participant observation, and policy document analysis to illustrate how regulators and participants (including municipalities, sewerage treatment plants, farmers and nonprofit organizations) perceive and react to uncertainty. Because current and future water quality data are based largely on model estimates, but regulatory compliance will likely be based on measured in-stream outcomes, participants must evaluate potential risks of involvement. Stakeholders have relied on partnership building and legal modifications such as extended compliance timelines to reduce the risks associated with uncertainty. Experimentation under uncertainty led to sustained stakeholder dialogue, and an iterative process of deciding how monitoring and modeling should be used to track and prove program progress.},
	keywords = {Adaptive governance, Experimental governance, Performance measurement, Regulation, Uncertainty, Water quality, Watershed collaboration},
	isbn = {0264-8377},
	doi = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.07.016},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837716312042},
	author = {Wardropper, Chloe B. and Gillon, Sean and Rissman, Adena R.}
}
@article {159,
	title = {Historical foundations and future directions in macrosystems ecology},
	journal = {Ecology Letters},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	abstract = {Macrosystems ecology is an effort to understand ecological processes and interactions at the broadest spatial scales and has potential to help solve globally important social and ecological challenges. It is important to understand the intellectual legacies underpinning macrosystems ecology: How the subdiscipline fits within, builds upon, differs from and extends previous theories. We trace the rise of macrosystems ecology with respect to preceding theories and present a new hypothesis that integrates the multiple components of macrosystems theory. The spatio-temporal anthropogenic rescaling (STAR) hypothesis suggests that human activities are altering the scales of ecological processes, resulting in interactions at novel space{\textendash}time scale combinations that are diverse and predictable. We articulate four predictions about how human actions are {\textquotedblleft}expanding{\textquotedblright}, {\textquotedblleft}shrinking{\textquotedblright}, {\textquotedblleft}speeding up{\textquotedblright} and {\textquotedblleft}slowing down{\textquotedblright} ecological processes and interactions, and thereby generating new scaling relationships for ecological patterns and processes. We provide examples of these rescaling processes and describe ecological consequences across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. Rescaling depends in part on characteristics including connectivity, stability and heterogeneity. Our STAR hypothesis challenges traditional assumptions about how the spatial and temporal scales of processes and interactions operate in different types of ecosystems and provides a lens through which to understand macrosystem-scale environmental change.},
	keywords = {Hierarchy theory, landscape ecology, macrosystems ecology, space{\textendash}time, spatio-temporal},
	isbn = {1461-0248},
	doi = {10.1111/ele.12717},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.12717},
	author = {Rose, Kevin C. and Graves, Rose A. and Hansen, Winslow D. and Harvey, Brian J. and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Wood, Stephen A. and Ziter, Carly and Turner, Monica G.}
}
@article {135,
	title = {Local perspectives and global archetypes in scenario development},
	journal = {Ecology and Society},
	volume = {21},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	abstract = {Contrasting social-ecological scenarios can help stakeholders envision potential futures and navigate change and uncertainty. Scenario developers integrate stakeholder perceptions into storylines to increase scenario relevance and plausibility while relying on archetypes of change from scenario literature to enrich narratives. This research examines the contributions of local perspectives and global archetypes to scenario development through a case study of a regional scenario project, Yahara 2070, in Wisconsin, USA. Interviews with 50 Yahara watershed stakeholders and 5 members of the project{\textquoteright}s scenario development team were examined to compare themes from scenario archetypes with local perspectives on how change is expected to occur. We next examined how these two sources of inspiration for trajectories of change were used in the development of the Yahara 2070 scenarios. Both global archetypes and local stakeholders emphasized social values, market forces, and policy reform as influences in determining the future, which were reflected in Yahara 2070. However, stakeholders were less likely to mention institutional breakdown, an important theme from the global scenarios literature that was included in Yahara 2070. This research offers a new approach to analyzing similarities and differences between scenarios\&$\#$8217; narratives and local perspectives. Scenario development may involve tensions between the goals of reflecting stakeholder views and including narratives from the global scenarios literature that may be useful for  creating divergent model trajectories and addressing dramatic change into the future. To improve scenario development, scenario projects should document the development process in academic and nonacademic venues, explicitly highlighting sources and constraints in storyline development.},
	keywords = {scenario archetypes, scenario development, social and environmental change, stakeholder perspectives, watershed futures},
	doi = {10.5751/ES-08384-210212},
	url = {http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/iss2/art12/},
	author = {Wardropper, Chloe B. and Gillon, Sean and Mase, Amber S. and McKinney, Emily A. and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Rissman, Adena R.}
}
@article {97,
	title = {Shifting drivers and static baselines in environmental governance: challenges for improving and proving water quality outcomes},
	journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
	volume = {16},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2015/04/04},
	pages = {759-775},
	abstract = {Understanding the conditions that enable or constrain success in environmental governance is crucial for developing effective interventions and adapting approaches. Efforts to achieve and assess success in environmental quality improvement are often impeded by changes in conditions that drive outcomes but lie outside the scope of intervention and monitoring. We document how long-term changes in land use, agriculture, and climate act as non-stationary, shifting drivers of change that combine to render water quality management interventions less effective and increasingly difficult to assess. Focusing on the Yahara River watershed of south-central Wisconsin, USA, we ask how baselines influence program modeling, monitoring, and evaluation, as well as adaptation in governance approach. Through historical trend, GIS, and policy and qualitative data analyses, we find that changes in long-term land use and precipitation pattern dynamics exert tremendous pressure on water quality outcomes but are not captured in snapshot baseline assessments used in management planning or evaluation. Specifically, agricultural sector change related to the intensification of milk and manure production is increasingly challenging to address through best management practices, and flashier precipitation associated with climate change makes it difficult to achieve goals and establish a causal connection between management interventions and outcomes. Analysis of shifting drivers demonstrates challenges facing environmental governance in the context of climatic and social{\textendash}ecological change. We suggest that goal setting, program design, and evaluation incorporate new modes of analysis that address slowly changing and external determinants of success.},
	keywords = {Agricultural intensification, Climate change, Environmental governance, Land use change, Shifting drivers, Water quality},
	isbn = {1436-3798},
	doi = {10.1007/s10113-015-0787-0},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10113-015-0787-0},
	author = {Gillon, Sean and Booth, Eric G. and Rissman, Adena R.}
}
@article {142,
	title = {Where are Ecology and Biodiversity in Social{\textendash}Ecological Systems Research? A Review of Research Methods and Applied Recommendations},
	journal = {Conservation Letters},
	year = {2016},
	month = {2016},
	pages = {n/a - n/a},
	abstract = {Understanding social{\textendash}ecological systems (SES) is critical for effective sustainability and biodiversity conservation initiatives. We systematically reviewed SES research to examine whether and how it integrates ecological and social domains and generates decision-relevant recommendations. We aim to inform SES research methods and improve the relevance of SES research. Of 120 SES articles, two-thirds included an ecological variable while all but one included a social variable. Biodiversity was a less common ecological variable than resource productivity, land cover, and abiotic measures. We found six diverse social{\textendash}ecological linking methods: modeling (9\%), causal loop diagrams (18\%), quantitative correlations (8\%), separate quantitative measures (13\%), indicators (14\%), and rich description (37\%). Policy recommendations addressing social{\textendash}ecological dynamics were more likely in articles including both ecological and social variables, suggesting the importance of research approach for policy and practice application. Further integration of ecology and biodiversity is needed to support governance, policy, and management for SES sustainability.},
	keywords = {Applied research, interdisciplinary, social{\textendash}ecological systems, sustainability science, systematic literature review},
	isbn = {1755-263X},
	doi = {10.1111/conl.12250},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.12250},
	author = {Rissman, Adena R. and Gillon, Sean}
}
@article {93,
	title = {Creating a safe operating space for iconic ecosystems},
	journal = {Science},
	volume = {347},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015/03/20},
	pages = {1317 - 1319},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aaa3769},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6228/1317.short},
	author = {Scheffer, M. and Barrett, S. and Carpenter, S. R. and Folke, C. and Green, A. J. and Holmgren, M. and Hughes, T. P. and Kosten, S. and van de Leemput, I. A. and Nepstad, D. C. and van Nes, E. H. and Peeters, E. T. H. M. and Walker, B.}
}
@article {95,
	title = {Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet},
	journal = {Science},
	volume = {347},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015/02/13},
	abstract = {The planetary boundaries framework defines a safe operating space for humanity based on the intrinsic biophysical processes that regulate the stability of the Earth system. Here, we revise and update the planetary boundary framework, with a focus on the underpinning biophysical science, based on targeted input from expert research communities and on more general scientific advances over the past 5 years. Several of the boundaries now have a two-tier approach, reflecting the importance of cross-scale interactions and the regional-level heterogeneity of the processes that underpin the boundaries. Two core boundaries{\textemdash}climate change and biosphere integrity{\textemdash}have been identified, each of which has the potential on its own to drive the Earth system into a new state should they be substantially and persistently transgressed.},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1259855},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.abstract},
	author = {Steffen, Will and Richardson, Katherine and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan and Cornell, Sarah E. and Fetzer, Ingo and Bennett, Elena M. and Biggs, Reinette and Carpenter, Stephen R. and de Vries, Wim and de Wit, Cynthia A. and Folke, Carl and Gerten, Dieter and Heinke, Jens and Mace, Georgina M. and Persson, Linn M. and Ramanathan, Veerabhadran and Reyers, Belinda and S{\"o}rlin, Sverker}
}
@article {100,
	title = {Plausible futures of a social-ecological system: Yahara watershed, Wisconsin, USA},
	journal = {Ecology and Society},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2015},
	month = {2015},
	abstract = {Agricultural watersheds are affected by changes in climate, land use, agricultural practices, and human demand for energy, food, and water resources. In this context, we analyzed the agricultural, urbanizing Yahara watershed (size: 1345 km\&$\#$178;, population: 372,000) to assess its responses to multiple changing drivers. We measured recent trends in land use/cover and water quality of the watershed, spatial patterns of 10 ecosystem services, and spatial patterns and nestedness of governance. We developed scenarios for the future of the Yahara watershed by integrating trends and events from the global scenarios literature, perspectives of stakeholders, and models of biophysical drivers and ecosystem services. Four qualitative scenarios were created to explore plausible trajectories to the year 2070 in the watershed\&$\#$8217;s social-ecological system under different regimes: no action on environmental trends, accelerated technological development, strong intervention by government, and shifting values toward sustainability. Quantitative time-series for 2010\&$\#$8211;2070 were developed for weather and land use/cover during each scenario as inputs to model changes in ecosystem services. Ultimately, our goal is to understand how changes in the social-ecological system of the Yahara watershed, including management of land and water resources, can build or impair resilience to shifting drivers, including climate.},
	keywords = {alternative futures, climate, ecosystem services, eutrophication, governance, lakes, land-use change, phosphorus, scenarios},
	doi = {10.5751/ES-07433-200210},
	url = {http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol20/iss2/art10/},
	author = {Carpenter, Stephen R. and Booth, Eric G. and Gillon, Sean and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Loheide, Steven and Mase, Amber S. and Motew, Melissa and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Rissman, Adena R. and Seifert, Jenny and Soylu, Evren and Turner, Monica and Wardropper, Chloe B.}
}
@article {67,
	title = {What is the influence on water quality in temperate eutrophic lakes of a reduction of planktivorous and benthivorous fish? A systematic review protocol},
	journal = {Environmental Evidence},
	volume = {2},
	year = {2013},
	abstract = {BACKGROUND:In lakes that have become eutrophic due to sewage discharges or nutrient runoff from land, problems such as algal blooms and oxygen deficiency often persist even when nutrient supplies have been reduced. One reason is that phosphorus stored in the sediments can exchange with the water. There are indications that the high abundance of phytoplankton, turbid water and lack of submerged vegetation seen in many eutrophic lakes may represent a semi-stable state. For that reason, a shift back to more natural clear-water conditions could be difficult to achieve.In some cases, though, temporary mitigation of eutrophication-related problems has been accomplished through biomanipulation: stocks of zooplanktivorous fish have been reduced by intensive fishing, leading to increased populations of phytoplankton-feeding zooplankton. Moreover, reduction of benthivorous fish may result in lower phosphorus fluxes from the sediments. An alternative to reducing the dominance of planktivores and benthivores by fishing is to stock lakes with piscivorous fish. These two approaches have often been used in combination.The implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive has recently led to more stringent demands for measures against eutrophication, and a systematic review could clarify whether biomanipulation is efficient as a measure of that kind.METHODS:The review will examine primary field studies of how large-scale biomanipulation has affected water quality and community structure in eutrophic lakes or reservoirs in temperate regions. Such studies can be based on comparison between conditions before and after manipulation, on comparison between treated and non-treated water bodies, or both. Relevant outcomes include Secchi depth, concentrations of oxygen, nutrients, suspended solids and chlorophyll, abundance and composition of phytoplankton, zooplankton and fish, and coverage of submerged macrophytes.},
	doi = {10.1186/2047-2382-2-9},
	url = {http://www.environmentalevidencejournal.org/content/2/1/9},
	author = {Bernes, C. and Carpenter, S. R. and Gardmark, A. and Larsson, P. and Persson, L. and Skov, C. and Van Donk, E.}
}
