@article {154,
	title = {Flashiness and Flooding of Two Lakes in the Upper Midwest During a Century of Urbanization and Climate Change},
	journal = {Ecosystems},
	volume = {20},
	year = {2017},
	pages = {601 - 615},
	abstract = {Globally, ecosystem services are threatened by increasing urbanization and more variable precipitation patterns driven by climate change. However, how these drivers interact over long-time scales to affect underlying processes remains poorly understood, hindering our ability to predict their long-term consequences. Here, we use long-term data spanning nearly a century to investigate changes in hydrologic attributes for two lakes in the Upper Midwest with urbanizing watersheds. We quantified flashiness{\textemdash}the variability of runoff rate, volume, or stage-level of waterways{\textemdash}to investigate the concurrent impacts of urbanization and climate change on flashiness and flooding potential. Our results indicate that flashiness generally increased for both lakes over the period of 1916{\textendash}2013, although this overall trend consists of sub-periods of increase and decrease. Increasing impervious surface area has been the stronger driver of flashiness historically; however, our results suggest that the impact of urbanization may reach a threshold, such that saturation effects would cause large magnitude precipitation events to become a relatively stronger driver of flashiness. Increasing flashiness indicates an increase in flooding potential, documented by increases in the 10- and 100-year flood threshold levels as large as 30~cm. Since flashiness is strongly related to the provisioning of multiple ecosystem services, the methodology and results presented here provide a unique approach to gain insight into how non-linear interactions between global change drivers, at multiple time scales, impact the simultaneous provision of multiple services.},
	isbn = {1435-0629},
	doi = {10.1007/s10021-016-0042-7},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-0042-7},
	author = {Usinowicz, Jacob and Qiu, Jiangxiao and Kamarainen, Amy}
}
